Brian Cook's thoughtful treatise on this year's wacky Heisman Race got me thinking.
Just who could win this award? Who should?
In my opinion, the best player in college football is still Darren McFadden. Problem #1: his stats aren't great so far this year. His greatness is evident when he runs, but it doesn't pop out on the stat sheet yet. Not a Heisman pop, anyway. Problem #2: his head coach is Houston Nutt. Which is to say, the Hogs aren't winning any championships this year. I'm not even sure how many games they'll win. They're still 0-2 in the SEC.
Don't think D-Mac's gonna get it this year.
Other contenders?
Booty wasn't great to begin with and after losing to Stanford, he's out.
Pat White and Steve Slaton were fringe contenders in the pre-season, and they have not shown any flashes of Heisman-like performances this season. Frankly, Pat White can't throw and Steve Slaton can't run. Losing to the Bulls really hurt their chances. Probably too late for both of them.
Andre Woodson: love the kid, but against the first stout defense Kentucky played, he melted down. It would have been a tightrope walk for Woodson to win under the best of circumstances, and B.o.C. have left town.
Brian Brohm? Not a snowball's chance in hell after losing to Syracuse.
Colt Brennan? Wouldn't have happened even if Hawaii went undefeated and he stayed healthy.
My penultimate statement is this: Michigan's Mike Hart plays like a champion. Take away the loss to App State and I think he's the front-runner. Not only does he have the stats -- 976 yards, a 5.5 YPC average, and 10 TDs -- but he has carried his team on his shoulders this season. He's also a humble, easy to like guy who exudes an uncocky confidence both off and on the field. Frankly, everything about him is very Heisman-like.
If Hart keeps his numbers up, and Michigan wins out -- and therefore wins the Big 10 -- could Hart be the guy?
Maybe. Mayyyyyyyyyybe. But nah. I don't think the voters will excuse the Appalachian State loss. Heisman Trophy winners don't lose to Div-IAA teams, even though Hart offered a strong individual performance in that game.
Which brings me to Tim Tebow.
Let's look at Florida's remaining schedule: @ Kentucky, Georgia, Vanderbilt, @ South Carolina, Florida Atlantic, and Florida State.
The toughest game in that list is obviously South Carolina. I'd venture to say that right now, Florida will be heavily favored in every other game they play, and it'd be very surprising if they lost any of them.
Assuming the Gators get past South Carolina and Tennessee loses one more game, Florida will face LSU in the SEC Championship Game. Since the Gators gave everything the Tigers could handle in a night game in Baton Rouge, I think the odds favor a UF victory in Atlanta. It's damn hard to beat a good team twice.
That game takes place in early December. It's a perfect opportunity for Tebow to shine in front of a national audience, including the Heisman voters. It would be another clash of the titans, with LSU's national title hopes on the line.
So tell me, assuming all of those things occur, why wouldn't Tebow win it?
Tebow's biggest strike against him is the fact that he's a sophomore. His worst performances all involve multiple TDs and none are bad enough to disqualify him. Among the current Heisman candidates, he's the NCAA pass-efficiency leader and his stats are excellent: 1,955 yards of total offense for 13 passing TDs and 9 rushing TDs.
But Florida can't lose any more games. Finish in the Top 5 with an SEC championship, which Florida is capable of doing, and you have a strong Heisman finalist in Tim Tebow. If Florida drops another game, Tebow will have to make another run for it next year.
A sophomore has never won the trophy. Voters are strongly inclined to reward seniors first and juniors second. But in a year as topsy-turvy as 2007, a sophomore could win, and that sophomore is Tim Tebow. Discuss.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-09-2007 @ 11:06AM
beuycek said...
Seriously Ryan, you have issues. I know you probably cry when he runs on the field and all but a Heisman winner? You have more than one screw loose.
How many 300 yard passing games does he have? One. How many 100 yard running games does he have? One. When he throws 25 passes and runs the ball 18 times a game, those number have to be better to even come close to being mentioned. And when he actually faced a real defense, he was 12-26 for 158 yards. Let me say that again...12-26 for 158 yards! Yes, he ran for 67 yards and a TD, but take away his 21 yard run and he averaged 3 yards a carry. Whoa....that's impressive.
Seriously man, your man crush is getting the best of you.
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10-09-2007 @ 11:06AM
Ryan Ferguson said...
Mike: well, I appreciate your comments. Tell me who you think is a better candidate? Who else has a more realistic chance to win? I'm all ears.
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10-09-2007 @ 11:21AM
beuycek said...
Why do you even care at this point? We are half way through the season, so nothing at this point matters. Remember Ray Rice being all the rage last year at this time? The year before it was Garrett Wolfe. How did those guys finish the season? Exactly...
McFadden jumped into the mix right about this time last year and finished second, so with there being no clear cut #1 like Troy Smith was last year, you are wasting your time even talking about it this early.
Let go of the lust you have for the man for one week at least. He was below average again LSU and you are talking Heisman. How idiotic is that?
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10-09-2007 @ 11:40AM
Ryan Ferguson said...
It's not idiotic at all. He had the best performance against LSU of any team which played them. He threw 2 TDs and ran in for another.
Like I said, his worst performances are far better than some of the other Heisman candidates.
I noticed you avoided my question. It is a race, and I'll agree that at times it's impossible to predict the finish. But what fun is sports if you shut up and wait like a mute? Who do you think, based on what you've seen so far this year, has a better chance to win?
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10-09-2007 @ 11:46AM
SC said...
keep your eyes on RB Mendenhall of Illinois
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10-09-2007 @ 12:09PM
beuycek said...
Again, not that it matters but Mike Hart would be my pick right now. I am a Big Ten guy and understand that his competition hasn't exactly been stellar but without Mike Hart, Michigan has 3, maybe 4 losses. He was hurt against Oregon (and the second half of the App State game) and still performed pretty well. People can say all they want about how great Michigan's O-Line (and Jake Long) is but they have been average at best this year, making Hart's numbers even more impressive.
He still has tough games against Illinois, Wisconsin and my Buckeyes but right now Hart would get my vote. I also have the opportunity to see George Selvie every week, up close and personal, and there isn't an offensive line capable of stopping him. Problem is, a true defensive player will never win the Heisman so I won't bang his drum unnecessarily.
I do think Tebow is absolutely Florida's MVP, but that in no way makes him worthy of being the best player in the country, in my opinion.
Hope that answers your question.
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10-09-2007 @ 12:38PM
Monty48 said...
What does Mike Crabtree have to do to join the Heisman discussion. If he goes for 300 yards and 5 receiving TDs a game for the rest of the year, does he get an invite to NYC?
Good grief, dude is on pace to break pretty much every D1 receiving record. If they're not going to just give it to the best player on the best team (Dorsey), it should be Crabtree.
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10-09-2007 @ 2:39PM
TheBoozeCruise said...
I think this might be the year a defensive player wins it, which means Glenn Dorsey or Ali Highsmith, two of the leaders of the #1 LSU defense.
If we're ruling out defense, don't forget about the Missouri and Boston College QBs, both off to great starts on good teams.
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10-09-2007 @ 3:56PM
robin said...
You are a very smart, insightful man who obviously does his homework! Great article! Screw the "rules"- GO GATORS!!! AND GO TEBOW!!!!
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10-09-2007 @ 4:10PM
David in St Cloud said...
Don't think Glenn Dorsey is a candidate. He was pretty much handled by Florida's freshman lineman Pouncy all night.
Of course, it's possible that Dorsey is worth the hype and Pouncy is seriously underrated.
As for Tebow, if his aim were truer, that pass wouldn't have bounced off Ingram's helmet for an interception; he would have wedged it into his facemask for a completion. Just a thought.
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10-09-2007 @ 5:35PM
Charlie said...
Ryan, I seriously think your man-crush is going waaaay too far. I'm not kidding either, it's creepy. There are plenty of better candidates than Tebow:
Matt Ryan-Best QB in the country, arguably. 1,857 yards and 15 TDs.
Deasean Jackson, Glenn Dorsey, Dennis Dixon and the list goes on.
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10-10-2007 @ 6:42AM
SC said...
If Michigan beats Ohio State in November and Mike Hart has a big day .....it is his trophy. If Florida loses a 3rd game...Tebow has no chance...if they run the table...he may just win it. If BC runs the table...Ryan could win it. The college football regular season is only at the halfway mark...still alot to see.
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10-10-2007 @ 4:02PM
beuycek said...
I am certainly no expert, but these guys claim to be, so let's see what they have to say:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/heisman07/index?lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos2
Looks a little more realistic than Ferguson's dillusion look at this topic.
ESPN panel of analysts, former players, former coaches and ESPN.com's college football staff VS. Starry-eyed AOL Blogger... you decide.
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7-18-2008 @ 11:30PM
David in St Cloud said...
I've decided, and I'm going with the Starry-eyed AOL Blogger.