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Isn't it amazing how few extensions have been handed out so far this summer for class of 2004 first-rounders? Remember, these players become restricted free agents next summer if they don't sign on the dotted line between Halloween. Last summer, seven of the top 10 eligible first-rounders inked extensions, and 15 of the 29 class of 2003 picks got extensions done. This summer? We've had three. Total.

What's it all mean? Two things, I surmise. First: the 2003 draft was (obviously) much more stacked. 2003 had four no-brainer max contracts (LeBron, Melo, Wade, Bosh) while 2004 only has one (Dwight Howard, the first man to get it done in July). But beyond that, it'd make sense to conclude top to bottom the 2003 class is a standard better -- Josh Howard was #29 in 2003, for God's sake.

The second conclusion I draw? After the jump.

General managers are hipping themselves to the competitive advantage restricted free agency affords them. Take Al Jefferson, for example. If Jefferson's asking for max money right now, Minnesota's smart for not giving it to him. Say they don't get an extension done by next week and Big Al becomes an RFA next summer. The market (or perhaps one stupid GM) decides if he's worth max money. If the market says 'yes,' you match the offer sheet. If the market says 'no' (due to a poor year or a lack of free agency dollars out there), you work out a deal with the protection of a qualifying offer. Worst case: You get a cheap fifth year and the opportunity to bid for his unrestricted services two years from now. Best case: He pulls a Gerald Wallace -- takes the qualifying offer (cheap 5th year) (or signs a short deal with an early termination option after the first season, as Wallace did) and then signs for a reasonable contract having already tested the market with poor results once. (Of course, letting Jefferson escape -- even two years from now -- would be a disaster for Minnesota since they gave up Freakin' Kevin Garnett to get him; they more or less have to pay him now whatever he wants.)

With players like Kevin Martin -- someone below the max-ish level whose value will likely rise substantially over this year -- it makes sense for the team to seek a contract now. Luol Deng is the only player in the class of 2004 who fits that description right now: Chicago can almost assuredly sign him cheaper now than next summer, so they need not play the risky game. (And with Deng -- who will command max money as an RFA if allowed -- it's a risky game.)

NOTE: An earlier version of this post indicated Wallace signed Charlotte's qualifying offer last summer. He did not. He signed a three-year deal with the Bobcats, and executed his early termination option after one year.