Posts by Pat Lackey at FanHouse

As inevitable post-season rumors go, the Yankees getting involved in the CC Sabathia bidding is about as foregone of a conclusion as there is right now. The Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in a decade and a half right now, they're awash with cash, and CC Sabathia is not only the best pitcher in either league at the moment, but a free agent. Even if the brash Hank Steinbrenner weren't running the team, it'd make logical sense for the Yankees to be in in the bidding. Well, it makes logical sense to everyone but Tracy Ringolsby. Buried in his notes column today is this gem:

The Yankees aren't expected to make a strong pitch for potential free-agent left-hander CC Sabathia, whom they fear might be too laid back for the turmoil of the Bronx.

But ... who says that? Ringolsby? His sources? The underpants gnomes? Why did that item run after a blurb about Jerry DiPoto? One would think that real information about where the biggest free agent on the market was going to land would be worth more than one sentence in the bottom of a notes column.

This seems more a set-up for an "I told you so" column down the road. I mean, I freely admit that Ringoslby might have some information that we don't, but don't you think that the ex-President of the Baseball Writers Association of America would do a better job presenting that information?

Yesterday we hit up the NLCS hyperbole, and to be certain Manny Ramirez and Joe Torre provide the Fox crew with ample opportunities. And yet, there's nothing that gets announcers worked up in a froth quite like the Boston Red Sox. Combine them with the feel-good Tampa Bay Rays and the TBS crew has a potential bonanza for hyperbole in this year's ALCS.

Potential hyperbole: This Rays team is so amazing! They were so bad forever and NO ONE ever expected this kind of turnaround from them!
The truth: Well, 97 wins is more than anyone really expected this year, but observant baseball fans have seen the Rays coming for a couple of years now. Baseball Prospectus predicted 88 wins for them this year. Just because the talking heads predicted far fewer wins for them this year doesn't mean that no one saw it coming.

Potential hyperbole: This Jason Bay is amazing! He's really raised his play since his trade to the Red Sox! How did this amazing player just fall in to their laps from nowhere?!?
The truth: Jason Bay is in fact a professional baseball player who's been playing very well for the Pittsburgh Pirates since 2005. In fact, he hit .282/.375/.519 with the Pirates and .293/.370/.527 with the Red Sox. Which is to say that he hit almost exactly the same with the Red Sox as he did with the Pirates. People just paid more attention to him in Boston.

The ALCS begins tonight. With the Red Sox and Rays getting ready to face off, the MLB FanHouse crew took some time to discuss the important issues of the series. Are the Rays too inexperienced? Does it matter that they don't have a closer? Do they stand a chance against the defending world champs?

Pat Lackey: This really is about as David and Goliath as baseball playoff series gets, isn't it? I know the Rays weren't intimidated by the White Sox, but I think there's more of a potential for them to be starstruck in this round. Not to use a gratuitous hockey/Pittsburgh comparison, but this match-up reminds me a lot of the Stanley Cup Finals in June where the young Penguins blew threw the Eastern Conference without serious challenge and met the experienced Red Wings in the Finals. The Pens played the Wings even for the final four games of the series, but they were starstruck and got blown off the ice in the first two and by the time they pulled it together, it was too late. There's certainly the potential for that to happen here, isn't there?

With two quick swings of the bat from Pat Burrell and Chase Utley in the sixth inning tonight, the Phillies turned a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 lead. Cole Hamels and the Phillies' bullpen nailed down that lead and the Phils go to sleep tonight with a 1-0 lead in the NLCS. That's all well and good, but they're going to need three more wins to take this home. So what does Game 1 really mean to them?

I think a Game 1 win was much more important for Philadelphia than for L.A. in this series. Cole Hamels vs. Derek Lowe is definitely their most favorable pitching matchup and losing tonight with Chad Billingsley (definitely the Dodgers' best pitcher right now, no matter what you might have heard from Fox's broadcast view about Lowe during tonight's game) going tomorrow and three games in L.A. after. That's not a situation I'd want to be in.

All told, I still think the Dodgers have the overall advantage in this series, but the Phillies got a great jump on them tonight. Now they don't need Brett Myers to outpitch Billingsley to stay in the series. Instead, all of the pressure is now on the 24-year-old to keep the Dodgers out of a 2-0 hole. That's got to be a situation that the Phillies' big bats like. You can't win a series in one game, but having a 1-0 lead is always better than the alternative.

Somehow, the MLB playoffs just aren't dramatic enough for the people charged with announcing them. As if simply describing what's happening in front of them isn't enough, baseball announcers tend to go far past the realm of reality during the playoffs. This hyperbolic tendency is what gave rise to the scrap-tacular David Eckstein and the Dragon Slayer Josh Fogg. In order to ward this off and prepare you for this, I give you the 2008 guide to NLCS hyperbole.

Potential Hyperbole: Tell me this conversation isn't coming:

Tim McCarver: You know, Joe, Manny Ramirez just makes me so angry! He literally slaughtered an innocent puppy and drank his blood in Boston and Theo Epstein had no choice but to trade him! Just made like a vampire right there in the clubhouse!

Joe Buck: Well, Tim, Manny Ramirez might not be a nice guy, but he's the modern equivalent of Atlas! I mean, he picked the Dodgers up on his shoulders and LITERALLY carried them to the playoffs! (preens for the camera)

The Truth: No one understands Manny Ramirez. I don't, you don't, Theo Epstein doesn't, Joe Torre doesn't, and Tim McCarver certainly doesn't. And yes, Manny has been awesome with the Dodgers, but Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin, and James Loney all played huge roles in the sweep of the Cubs. The Dodger are not a one-man show. Pretty much everything said about Manny in this series is going to be an exaggeration.

We already talked about the Phillies' NLCS rotation earlier today, so it's only fair that we take some time to tackle the Dodgers. Joe Torre has shied away from setting things as solidly in stone as Charlie Manuel did, and he's only named the starters for the first three games of the series thus far. They are, in order, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. From there, Torre's less forthcoming.

One option that hasn't been ruled out is 20-year-old phenom Clayton Kershaw. He's a lefty and the Phillies have a lot of left-handed power, so starting him would make some sense. Of course, starting a 20-year-old with only 21 decent big-league starts under his belt in the middle of the NLCS is a risk for any manager and it seems particularly unlikely that it's one that a guy with Joe Torre's track record would take.

Of course, Torre's options are pretty limited beyond Kershaw. Greg Maddux is a possibility, but he was pretty terrible after his trade to LA. The other option is to use Lowe on short rest in Game 4, then maybe Kershaw in Game 5 and figure things out from there. Lowe is a sinkerballer that shouldn't have much trouble going on short rest, so I'd bet Torre breaks that way if Game 4 is must win for the Dodgers.

It's time for a time-honored tradition in baseball; teams are going to start announcing their rotations for the League Championship Series and fans and sportswriters are going to second guess them. The Phillies announced today that they're not going to change their NLCS rotation from the NLDS incarnation. That means Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton will pitch for them, in that order.

There's not really a whole lot to question here. Hamels and Myers make perfect sense to start the first two games at home. I do think that Manuel is making a mistake not flipping Blanton and Moyer, though. Moyer's been great this year, but I didn't think he looked particularly strong in his start against the Brewers whereas Joe Blanton did. The trouble doesn't come in who starts Game 3 and who starts Game 4, but rather that whoever starts Game 3 likely starts Game 7 if the series goes that long, while whoever starts Game 4 only gets one start.

In the end, it's only a big deal if the series goes seven games, at which point I'd guess that Blanton would be ready to go if Moyer gets in to trouble. And if Moyer is really bad in Game 3, Blanton could start on short rest in Game 7 if necessary. Of course, the goal is to make sure things don't get that far and worry about them when they happen, so maybe I shouldn't spend so much time nit-picking.

If there's one commandment that all major league managers should follow I think it's probably this: put your players in position to win baseball games and then let them win it. The worst managers are the ones that try to insert their own strategic visions on teams where simple performance from the players would suffice. Mike Scioscia, a man who is generally lauded as a "great" manager in the press for "doing things right," failed to follow this credo in Game 4 of the ALDS agains the Red Sox and as a result, he lost to them again.

A squeeze bunt. With a left-handed hitter. On a 2-0 count. With one out. With K-Rod in the bullpen. With Game 5 in Angel Stadium and a five-inning start from Dice-K waiting for you if you win. With the top of the order on deck. If you could define "taking the game out of the hands of the players," it would be a video of Erick Aybar's ill-fated bunt attempt in the ninth inning of last night's game with Mike Scioscia staring blankly on to the field as his season went up in flames.

You can tell me Aybar had eight sac bunts this year. I don't care. You can tell me it was a buntable pitch. I don't care. You can tell me the ump got the call wrong when Varitek dropped the ball. I don't care. There are a million ways for the Angels to score Reggie Willits from third base with two chances. There are a million things that can go wrong on a squeeze play. Try to imagine Terry Francona making the same call. You can't do it. Now remember that Francona's teams are 9-1 against Scioscia's in the playoffs. There is an old baseball adage that applies here; bad managers lose far more games than good managers win. Mike Scioscia lost Game 4 for the Angels last night.

The Angels won a game in the playoffs. Against the Red Sox. At Fenway Park. I know that seems improbable given recent history, but it happened. And if the Angels want a Game 5, it's going to have to happen again tonight. Interestingly, the Angels chose the schedule with an extra day of rest, so Jon Lester and John Lackey take the mound on regular rest tonight. The Angels might regret that choice given the way Lester dominated them over seven shutout innings in Game 1.

The game starts at 8:30, as the Red Sox try to become the final team to join the LCS fray (assuming the Rays current lead holds up) and the Angels try to force a decisive Game 5. Follow along after the jump as my fellow FanHouse luminaries and I chronicle the events.