Let's get right to it: the Indianapolis Colts will lose for the first time this week in Baltimore, where they played for 34 years until the current owners father packed up the moving vans in the middle of one winter night and headed for Indianapolis.
There are numerous reasons I think this, including the emotion and energy the Colts spent in coming back from two 17-point deficits to beat New England last Sunday night. But the main reason I think Indy will lose is that it has a lot less to play for than the Ravens.
The Colts are favored by one point, so the Vegas guys recognize that this isn't a walkover. And they also seem to recognize that Baltimore's rather lackluster effort in Cleveland Sunday night may have had more to do with the dismal opposition than a lack of form.
"Why does the subjective rating of one NFL team compared to another move folks to anger?'' a fan named Aron Galonsky tweeted to Bob Glauber of Newsday this week after another fan had complained vociferously about Bob's rating of New England over Cincinnati.
"I do not know,'' Bob tweeted back.
Very good question and a very good answer. It's an exchange that makes me wonder why we bother to rate teams every week when the NFL, unlike major college football, has playoffs and a Super Bowl. Actually, I sort of know the answer because when I started in the business, an editor told me "people love lists,'' something I've learned on my own over the years.
Which gets me to this week's top and bottom six and, coincidentally, why I might rate New England higher than Cincinnati this week. (I'm still thinking about it as I write this.)
What Bill Belichick did Sunday night has happened before. It justifiably earned Barry Switzer the nickname "Bozo The Coach'' for failing TWICE on fourth down in the late stages of a tie game. And the Eagles' Andy Reid did the opposite of the New England coach on Sunday, eschewing fourth-and-short twice to kick field goals in what turned out to be an eight-point loss.
Switzer's mistake didn't prevent Dallas from winning its third Super Bowl in four seasons in the early '90s, but it left Switzer at the top of the oft-debated list of worst coaches to win a title.
On Nov. 15, 1995, the Cowboys were playing in Philadelphia and faced a fourth down and 1 on their own 29 with the game tied 17-17 and just over two minutes left. Switzer decided to go for it and sent Emmitt Smith left over the massive Nate Newton.
The Cincinnati Bengals have just one scout in their employ, one of the reasons given (beyond their various off-field malfeasances) why they have been consistently dismal for two decades. .
Someone's doing something right in that department these days.
The hero of the Sunday's 18-12 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers that gave Cincinnati control of the AFC North was Bernard Scott, a 25-year-old rookie from Abilene Christian who was one of their sixth-round draft picks. He returned a kickoff 96 yards in the first quarter for the game's only touchdown and took over the running back duties when Cedric Benson went out with a hip injury. He had just 33 yards on 13 carries (it was that kind of smash-mouth defensive game) but he also had a 21-yard reception that set up a third-quarter field goal in a game in which every field goal was like a piece of gold.
It's now officially an annual fixture like the Super Bowl: a Patriots-Colts game locked into November. Whichever network has it can reap the sweeps month ratings that come from the matchup of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
This year, it's NBC -- the Sunday night contest. As usual, the teams come in as the top two in the AFC -- or close to it. The Colts are unbeaten, the Patriots are 6-2, have won three straight, five of six and are looking and playing better as Brady regains his form after last season's knee surgery.
This is the 10th game between these teams since 2003, including three in the playoffs. The Pats lead this Brady-Manning series 6-4, but the Colts have won four of the last five, including the AFC championship game for the 2006 season and last season, 18-15.
It's Pats-Colts week, with Sunday night's contest in Indianapolis the 10th game between Indy and New England since 2003, the second year of the new alignment that left them in different divisions.
With the ascendancy of Twitter, it appears to be Pats-Colts conspiracy week.
Since I don't have 3,123,174 followers, like my friends Peter King, Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen (@SI_PeterKing, @Adam_Schefter, @mortreport, respectively), I'm reduced to following their answers to fan questions as unofficial Twitter answer men on the NFL. Their responses (especially the ones from Peter) are, at times, to questions implying some sort of conspiracy by the NFL and the networks to make sure the Patriots and Colts play every season.
Halfway through the season, the Giants, Ravens, Packers and Bears are alive for playoff spots.
Mathematically.
Based on what happened to them Sunday, it looks like time to start preparing for 2010. For not only did they lose, the way they lost and the psychological ramifications make it even harder to recover.
You could throw Houston in there too, but the Texans can still have a good season -- at 5-4 they are on course for their first winning season ever, although the way they lost Sunday to unbeaten Indianapolis opens up enough "what ifs?'' for 16 games. And the way they've played the Colts during their eight-season life makes losses to Indy inevitable. Last season, they managed to blow a 27-10 lead at home in half a quarter; they are now 0-8 lifetime in Indianapolis and 1-14 lifetime overall.
The Denver Broncos lost for the first time last week, a predictable defeat in Baltimore.
The folks who set the odds seem to think that's the start of a trend. Don't hold it against them -- their first concern is always money, and they seem to think Pittsburgh is the money team as it heads for a Monday night meeting at Invesco Field. The Steelers are a three-point favorite against a team that hadn't lost a game until it went to Baltimore.
Understandable on one level.
The Steelers are the Super Bowl champions, a team that's almost always competitive. Denver's a traditional team, too, but it's tradition most recently hasn't been what it was in the 1980s and 1990s when it went to five Super Bowls, winning the last two in John Elway's final two seasons.
When Art Modell fled for Baltimore with his Cleveland Browns, the NFL's consolation prize was the new Browns, complete with colors, history and Dawg Pound.
If the NFL had known what it had created, it might have forced Modell to stay. Because a decade after the Browns were reborn, they remain one of the two or three worst franchises in the NFL, a status reaffirmed on Monday when George Kokinis, the newly hired general manager, was asked to leave 10 months after he was hired.
Why? He hadn't done anything anyway, other than stand by and watch as Eric Mangini, who failed as the New York Jets' coach, traded away impact players or guys with potential for a bundle of mediocre ex-Jets.
Let's get right to it: the Indianapolis Colts will lose for the first time this week in Baltimore, where they played for 34 years until the current owners father packed up the moving vans in the middle of one winter night and headed for Indianapolis.
"Why does the subjective rating of one NFL team compared to another move folks to anger?'' a fan named Aron Galonsky tweeted to Bob Glauber of Newsday this week after another fan had complained vociferously about Bob's rating of New England over Cincinnati.
OK, I get it.
What Bill Belichick did Sunday night has happened before. It justifiably earned Barry Switzer the nickname "Bozo The Coach'' for failing TWICE on fourth down in the late stages of a tie game. And the Eagles' Andy Reid did the opposite of the New England coach on Sunday, eschewing fourth-and-short twice to kick field goals in what turned out to be an eight-point loss. 
The 
It's now officially an annual fixture like the Super Bowl: a 
It's Pats-
Halfway through the season, the Giants, Ravens, Packers and Bears are alive for playoff spots.
The 
When Art Modell fled for Baltimore with his 
