FanHouse

Week 11 NFL Picks: Colts Goin' Down

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-19T14:30:00 00:00

Let's get right to it: the Indianapolis Colts will lose for the first time this week in Baltimore, where they played for 34 years until the current owners father packed up the moving vans in the middle of one winter night and headed for Indianapolis.

There are numerous reasons I think this, including the emotion and energy the Colts spent in coming back from two 17-point deficits to beat New England last Sunday night. But the main reason I think Indy will lose is that it has a lot less to play for than the Ravens.

The Colts are favored by one point, so the Vegas guys recognize that this isn't a walkover. And they also seem to recognize that Baltimore's rather lackluster effort in Cleveland Sunday night may have had more to do with the dismal opposition than a lack of form.

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Dirty Dozen: The Mysteries of Rankings

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-18T18:30:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: NFL Analysis

"Why does the subjective rating of one NFL team compared to another move folks to anger?'' a fan named Aron Galonsky tweeted to Bob Glauber of Newsday this week after another fan had complained vociferously about Bob's rating of New England over Cincinnati.

"I do not know,'' Bob tweeted back.

Very good question and a very good answer. It's an exchange that makes me wonder why we bother to rate teams every week when the NFL, unlike major college football, has playoffs and a Super Bowl. Actually, I sort of know the answer because when I started in the business, an editor told me "people love lists,'' something I've learned on my own over the years.

Which gets me to this week's top and bottom six and, coincidentally, why I might rate New England higher than Cincinnati this week. (I'm still thinking about it as I write this.)

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LeBron to the Browns: Why Not? Hundreds of Millions of Reasons

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-18T16:15:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Browns

OK, I get it.

Cleveland's Eric Mangini wants to sign LeBron James so he won't have to endanger Joshua Cribbs on the final play of a game that's beyond his reach.

Unless, of course, LeBron pulls a hamstring in the fourth hour of a typical Mangini practice.

I guess that was the idea when Mangini, the coach of the NFL's worst team, said when asked about LeBron: "I think he should come on down.''

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Bozo the Coach, Andy Reid and the Belichick Precedent

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-16T10:57:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Chargers, Colts, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots, AFC East, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFL Coaching, NFL Analysis

What Bill Belichick did Sunday night has happened before. It justifiably earned Barry Switzer the nickname "Bozo The Coach'' for failing TWICE on fourth down in the late stages of a tie game. And the Eagles' Andy Reid did the opposite of the New England coach on Sunday, eschewing fourth-and-short twice to kick field goals in what turned out to be an eight-point loss.

Switzer's mistake didn't prevent Dallas from winning its third Super Bowl in four seasons in the early '90s, but it left Switzer at the top of the oft-debated list of worst coaches to win a title.

On Nov. 15, 1995, the Cowboys were playing in Philadelphia and faced a fourth down and 1 on their own 29 with the game tied 17-17 and just over two minutes left. Switzer decided to go for it and sent Emmitt Smith left over the massive Nate Newton.

Jay Mariotti: Spygate to Stupidgate: Belichick Blunders

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Bengals Are Dysfunctional No Longer

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-16T07:00:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: NFL Analysis

The Cincinnati Bengals have just one scout in their employ, one of the reasons given (beyond their various off-field malfeasances) why they have been consistently dismal for two decades. .

Someone's doing something right in that department these days.

The hero of the Sunday's 18-12 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers that gave Cincinnati control of the AFC North was Bernard Scott, a 25-year-old rookie from Abilene Christian who was one of their sixth-round draft picks. He returned a kickoff 96 yards in the first quarter for the game's only touchdown and took over the running back duties when Cedric Benson went out with a hip injury. He had just 33 yards on 13 carries (it was that kind of smash-mouth defensive game) but he also had a 21-yard reception that set up a third-quarter field goal in a game in which every field goal was like a piece of gold.

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Week 10 NFL Picks: Midseason Super Bowl in Indy

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-12T13:30:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Colts, Patriots, NFL Predictions

It's now officially an annual fixture like the Super Bowl: a Patriots-Colts game locked into November. Whichever network has it can reap the sweeps month ratings that come from the matchup of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

This year, it's NBC -- the Sunday night contest. As usual, the teams come in as the top two in the AFC -- or close to it. The Colts are unbeaten, the Patriots are 6-2, have won three straight, five of six and are looking and playing better as Brady regains his form after last season's knee surgery.

This is the 10th game between these teams since 2003, including three in the playoffs. The Pats lead this Brady-Manning series 6-4, but the Colts have won four of the last five, including the AFC championship game for the 2006 season and last season, 18-15.

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Dirty Dozen: Are Pats, Colts NFL's Best?

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-11T18:30:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: NFL Analysis

It's Pats-Colts week, with Sunday night's contest in Indianapolis the 10th game between Indy and New England since 2003, the second year of the new alignment that left them in different divisions.

With the ascendancy of Twitter, it appears to be Pats-Colts conspiracy week.

Since I don't have 3,123,174 followers, like my friends Peter King, Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen (@SI_PeterKing, @Adam_Schefter, @mortreport, respectively), I'm reduced to following their answers to fan questions as unofficial Twitter answer men on the NFL. Their responses (especially the ones from Peter) are, at times, to questions implying some sort of conspiracy by the NFL and the networks to make sure the Patriots and Colts play every season.

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Four 'Contenders' in Serious Trouble

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-08T23:15:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: NFL Analysis

Halfway through the season, the Giants, Ravens, Packers and Bears are alive for playoff spots.

Mathematically.

Based on what happened to them Sunday, it looks like time to start preparing for 2010. For not only did they lose, the way they lost and the psychological ramifications make it even harder to recover.

You could throw Houston in there too, but the Texans can still have a good season -- at 5-4 they are on course for their first winning season ever, although the way they lost Sunday to unbeaten Indianapolis opens up enough "what ifs?'' for 16 games. And the way they've played the Colts during their eight-season life makes losses to Indy inevitable. Last season, they managed to blow a 27-10 lead at home in half a quarter; they are now 0-8 lifetime in Indianapolis and 1-14 lifetime overall.

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Week 9 NFL Picks: Not Much Belief in First-Place Broncos

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-06T15:00:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: NFL Predictions

The Denver Broncos lost for the first time last week, a predictable defeat in Baltimore.

The folks who set the odds seem to think that's the start of a trend. Don't hold it against them -- their first concern is always money, and they seem to think Pittsburgh is the money team as it heads for a Monday night meeting at Invesco Field. The Steelers are a three-point favorite against a team that hadn't lost a game until it went to Baltimore.

Understandable on one level.

The Steelers are the Super Bowl champions, a team that's almost always competitive. Denver's a traditional team, too, but it's tradition most recently hasn't been what it was in the 1980s and 1990s when it went to five Super Bowls, winning the last two in John Elway's final two seasons.

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Dirty Dozen: What Have They Done With The Browns?

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-04T21:30:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Browns, NFL Analysis

When Art Modell fled for Baltimore with his Cleveland Browns, the NFL's consolation prize was the new Browns, complete with colors, history and Dawg Pound.

If the NFL had known what it had created, it might have forced Modell to stay. Because a decade after the Browns were reborn, they remain one of the two or three worst franchises in the NFL, a status reaffirmed on Monday when George Kokinis, the newly hired general manager, was asked to leave 10 months after he was hired.

Why? He hadn't done anything anyway, other than stand by and watch as Eric Mangini, who failed as the New York Jets' coach, traded away impact players or guys with potential for a bundle of mediocre ex-Jets.

But the record speaks for itself.

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Snap Judgment? Just Play the Games

Dave Goldberg — 2009-11-02T01:00:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: NFL Analysis

Modern communication makes every NFL Sunday into a season of its own. This particular Sunday proved that fans should reserve judgment until after their teams have demonstrated some sort of form. In most cases, it's inconsistency more than the opposite.

Thus did this Sunday give us:

o. The New York Giants, rated as the NFL's best team in numerous "power rankings'' just two weeks ago, lost their third straight game, 40-17 in Philadelphia. They've been outscored 112-61 in those three losses. They also seem to have been surpassed in the NFC East (at least this week) by Philadelphia and Dallas, two teams written off two weeks ago after dismal losses in Oakland and Denver respectively.

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Week 8 NFL Picks: Favre-Fest, Part II

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-30T14:00:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: NFL Predictions

The hype for Brett Favre's return to Green Bay was inevitable as soon as he made his decision to return for yet another NFL season, this with the Minnesota Vikings. It's now officially out of hand as Brett returns to Wisconsin.

Is all this anticlimactic? After all, Favre already has faced the Packers -- at the Metrodome in Week Four, quarterbacking the Vikings to a 30-23 win. In a Monday night game, no less.

But yes, this is something else -- a return to the place Favre played for 16 seasons and led the Packers to two Super Bowls, winning one and getting them to the brink of several others. A hero turned -- in the eyes of numerous Green Bay fans -- into a traitor.

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Walter Payton: Sweetness and Sorrow

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-29T12:00:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Chicago Bears

Jim Finks knew the Atlanta Falcons would use the first pick of the 1975 draft on Steve Bartkowski, the California quarterback -- then, as now, "franchise'' quarterbacks were a premium item.

What the general manager of the Chicago Bears didn't know as he waited on at New York's Hilton Hotel on Jan. 28 of that year was whether or not Dallas would use the second pick on the player he desperately coveted: Walter Payton, a running back from Jackson State who had finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, despite playing for a historically black school that never competed on national television.

"We didn't know who we were going to take either,'' says Gil Brandt, then the personnel director of the Dallas Cowboys. "I guess the draft started at noon and we didn't make our decision until maybe an hour before. It was Walter or Randy White and we went with longevity -- defensive linemen are supposed to last a lot longer than running backs.''

George: Jeff Fisher Remembers Payton, the Teammate
Moore: Payton Was Supposed to Live Forever

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Dirty Dozen: Redskins Keep Sinking

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-28T22:15:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Redskins, NFL Analysis

The Washington Redskins aren't the worst team in the NFL, but they're certainly the most chaotic. And the most disdainful of their paying customers.

They flounder on the field and they flounder off it -- especially off it, where owner Daniel Snyder, a self-absorbed billionaire who views his employees as pawns to be manipulated and eventually discarded, is loathed now by fans who are among the most loyal in sports.

Consider this tweet Tuesday night from a fan who calls himself @kn0nothing: "Had to sneak in our Sean Taylor memorial banner last 3 games.''

Why? Because Snyder and his minions have banned banners, many of which were uncomplimentary to them and their 2-5 team.

Kevin Blackistone: Snyder Running a Repressive Regime

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Unbeaten Saints Seem Parity-Proof

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-25T21:30:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Saints

This piece was supposed to be about parity. About two of the NFL's four remaining unbeaten teams losing and about why New England's 16-0 2007 regular season was so remarkable.

In other words, about why no one will match that soon. Or ever.

That's still probably true. But the Saints are making a lot of believers after falling behind 24-3 Sunday, then outscoring Miami 43-10 in the last 30 minutes and two seconds to win 46-34. How many interceptions does Darren Sharper, who will turn 34 in nine days, have to return for touchdowns before we'll starting wondering if New Orleans can emulate the Patriots?

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Week 7 NFL Picks: Brett's Boys Due For A Loss

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-23T14:00:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: FanHouse Previews, NFL Predictions

There aren't normally this many unbeaten teams left after six weeks of the season -- the number right now is four, a "modern'' record. (which means nobody really knows who did what back in the days of the Canton Bulldogs and Providence Steamrollers.)

There might be only one after this week: Denver, which isn't playing. Although, to get serious, does anyone really expect the Rams to beat the Colts? And we'll get to the Saints later.

But it's time for the Vikings to lose (yes, I've said that before.) If not for Brett Favre and Greg Lewis, they would have lost to San Francisco. If not for Steve Hauschka, the Raven's field-goal kicker, they would have lost last week to Baltimore.

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Best and Worst NFL Coaches: The Dirty Dozen Rankings

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-22T07:00:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: NFL Coaching, NFL Analysis

Coaches know their eventual fate the day they are hired. Almost all will be fired within a few years unless they do something very difficult, like win a Super Bowl. Or ride off into the sunset to pursue better causes, as Tony Dungy did.

So maybe Jeff Fisher's time has come.

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Saints, Vikings Move to Top of NFC Heap

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-18T23:30:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Saints, Vikings, NFL Analysis

If Minnesota and New Orleans meet in the NFC championship game, immediately give three or four points to the Saints -- no matter where the game is played.

Because while both stayed unbeaten Sunday, the Saints showed they have a huge advantage in one crucial area: coaching.

Beyond that, of course, was the way the Saints won -- 48-27 over the previously unbeaten Giants in a game that was never that close -- and the team they beat, although the last three of New York's five wins were against the Triple-A of this year's NFL: Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland. (Another Giants victim, Washington, was relegated to that league Sunday by losing at home to the Chiefs.)

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Week 6 NFL Picks: Giants-Saints Monster Not Critical to Either Team

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-16T15:00:00 00:00

by Dave Goldberg

Filed under: Giants, Saints, NFL Predictions

And so we bring you this week's "Game of the Century.'' The unbeaten Giants at the unbeaten Saints, with nearly the hype of the Game of the Century two weeks ago, when Brett Favre dissected his former team.

Yes, it's an interesting matchup. Yes, it will get nice ratings for Fox. Although it's an early game rather than a late-afternoon start or a prime-timer, as it might have been if the NFL had realized the Saints would be as good as they are. And yes, the hype includes Jeremy Shockey's first game against the team he whined his way of off and Eli Manning's return to his hometown for his first game ever at the Superdome.

But remember that the loser will be either 5-1 (Giants) or 4-1 and still in command of their division _ the Giants' wins over the Redskins and Cowboys are more important in the long run that the result against New Orleans.

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Other Leagues That Tried ... and Died

Dave Goldberg — 2009-10-16T12:00:00 00:00

by Dave GoldbergThe "Foolish Club,'' the eight men who formed the American Football League in 1960, looked like geniuses when their league merged with the NFL.

Other leagues that challenged the giant emerged and weren't nearly as successful. They thought they could emulate the AFL's success. In fact, they failed because of it -- with the merger in 1970, most of the major markets were taken and fans had formed their loyalties and their television habits.

From the World Football League to the USFL to the XFL, no league has lasted more than three seasons, although the USFL brought on its own demise by trying to shift from the spring to head-to-head against the NFL in the fall and "losing" by "winning" an antitrust suit against the established league. It had the best players -- eventual Hall of Famers like Reggie White, Steve Young, Jim Kelly and Gary Zimmerman -- but the money it paid them and to other "name" stars like Herschel Walker and Doug Flutie also helped hasten its demise.

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