Heismanpundit Posts

Looking at this piece by Tony Barnhart of the Atlanta-Journal, it occurred to me that many people are under the impression that a 'Heisman moment' is a necessary thing for a candidate who wants to take home the trophy.

Barnhart says the following about Troy Smith:

Take a good look at the acrobatic play he made against Penn State last week. You're going to be seeing it for the rest of the season and so will the 900-plus Heisman Trophy voters. Remember that stats are important, but making the highlight package on SportsCenter on Saturday night is even more important if you want to win the Heisman.

He's right to some extent, but the notion that a player needs such a moment in order to win is just not true.

Can anyone name Matt Leinart's Heisman moment in 2004? How about Jason White's in 2003? What highlight play of Chris Weinke's season was being re-played over and over on ESPN in 2000?

The answer, of course, is that none of these players had a 'Heisman moment.' But they all put up good stats on a national title-contending traditional power and that's what mattered in the end.

It's called the Biletnikoff Award.

I bring this up because people are starting to clamor for players like Calvin Johnson and Mario Manningham to be hyped as Heisman candidates.

These are two very good players, but the reason we have the Biletnikoff Award is for players just like these two. They are pure receivers who don't return punts or kicks.

I understand that not everyone knows the unwritten rules of what it takes to win the Heisman, so I will take the time to provide a quick refresher:

The 10 Heismandments

1. The winner must be a quarterback, a running back, or a multi-threat athlete.

2. The winner must be a junior or senior.

3. The winner must put up good numbers in big games on TV.

4. The winner must have some prior name recognition.

5. The winner must be one or more of the following three:

a. The top player on a national title contender.

b. A player who puts up good numbers for a traditional power that has a good record.

c. A player who puts up superlative single-season or career numbers on a good team, or numbers which are way out ahead of his Heisman competitors.

6. The winner cannot be perceived as a product of his team's system.

7. If you are a quarterback, running back or multi-purpose athlete at one of the following schools, you have a good chance to win if you have a very good statistical season, are an upperclassmen and your team wins at least 9 games: Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami and Florida State. These nine schools have won 11 of the last 14 Heismans and seven of the last eight.

8. There are statistical benchmarks for each position in order to be considered:

a. Running back: 2,000 (non-traditional power), 1,700 (traditional power); 17 TDs

b. Passing QB: 3,000 yards, 25 TDs, minimum 2-1 TD-to-INT ratio, above a 135 efficiency rating.

c. Dual Threat QB: 1,000 yards rushing, 1,500 passing yards

d. Multi-Purpose: Great position stats plus dazzling kick or punt returns

9. There will never be another two-time Heisman winner.

10. The winner must be likeable.

As you can see, there is no room there for a wide receiver who does not also return punts or kicks. Neither Johnson nor Manningham are multi-purpose athletes.

People like to ask me "Well, what about Larry Fitzgerald?"

To which I answer "He didn't win the Heisman, did he?"

"But he DID win the Biletnikoff."

Exactly.

I know it's early, but four games into the season, Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois is on pace to break Barry Sanders' single-season NCAA rushing record of 2,628 yards.

Now, granted, Wolfe will probably get 13 or 14 games to do it (depending on whether NIU makes the Mac title game or not), while Sanders did it in 11 games, but it would be an amazing accomplishment nonetheless.

Right now, Wolfe has 828 yards in four games, an average of 207 per outing. Sure, he plays in the MAC, but he has already shown that he can ball with the big boys, as he had 171 yards in the opener against Ohio State.

Wolfe has a very favorable remaining schedule to help him challenge Sanders, who won the Heisman in 1988:

Ball State
Miami (OH)
Western Michigan
Temple
Iowa
Toledo
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan

It is within the realm of possibility that he could top the 2,000-yard mark against Iowa, which would give him a lot of publicity heading into his final three games.

All of college football would be watching at that point and he may pick up a ton of Heisman votes as a result. In a doomsday scenario, where the other four main candidates all fall off the map, he could conceivably step right in and capture the Heisman .

I think that, at the very least, a trip to NYC is in the offing for Mr. Wolfe.

The Heisman race is tightening again. There are still only four players who can win this year's trophy and no one has broken from the pack just yet.

1. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma--He has moved into the front runner's spot on the strength of his solid stats (643 yards and 7 TDs) and because of the reemergence of Brady Quinn, who will take votes from Troy Smith.

2. (tie) Brady Quinn, Notre Dame--The Irish win over Michigan State breathed new life into Quinn's candidacy. He now is set up nicely and could take home the trophy if Notre Dame wins out.

2. (tie) Troy Smith, Ohio State--Had a rough day against Penn State, which begs the question: Will he get the stats he needs to win? Right now, he is on pace for 2,600 passing yards and no quarterback has won the Heisman with less than 3,000 yards passing since Vinny Testaverde in 1986.

4. Chris Leak, Florida--He is on pace for a huge year, but the Gators must win the SEC and Quinn must stumble for Leak to seriously challenge for the award.

There's still a ton of football to be played, but Peterson is set up the best right now. He has a big game with Texas coming up that will help determine his Heisman fate and there are no late-season pitfalls that could derail him, unlike the other three players..

Since the understanding is that Oklahoma is not a national title contender, Peterson alone among the remaining four can absorb the impact of another loss and still win.

One other factor: Peterson is the only one of the four who is a lock to be a top five NFL draft pick.

If The Vote Were Held Today

1. Troy Smith
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Brady Quinn
4. Chris Leak
5. Steve Slaton
6. Garrett Wolfe
7. Michael Hart
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Marshawn Lynch
10. Kenny Irons

The race for this year's Heisman is still heating up, with a lot of twists and turns to go before the winner is announced.

Now is a good time to look a ways ahead to try to determine what next year's race will look like.

One of the things we know for sure is that the following players won't be a factor:

Brady Quinn
Adrian Peterson
Troy Smith
Chris Leak
Kenny Irons
Garrett Wolfe
Ted Ginn
Marshawn Lynch
Drew Stanton
Drew Tate

They'll all either be graduating or heading to the NFL a year early.

So who does that leave?

Well, first and foremost, you have to look at Steve Slaton of West Virginia. Granted, he does not play for a traditional power, but after this year he will have done enough to make himself a household name. He will be coming off a great statistical season and a likely top 6 finish in the Heisman voting as a sophomore. What's more, the Mountaineers will probably remain in the top five as long as he and Pat White are running that offense.

After a year's respite, the USC quarterback should return as a candidate. Assuming John David Booty returns for his senior year, he'll be right there with Slaton as one of the front runners. Right now, it looks like Booty is on pace for a huge junior year, which means that he'll get plenty of hype heading into next season.

Michael Hart and Drew Henne of Michigan are both juniors this year and will be known quantities to Heisman voters next season Hart will have excellent career numbers and could challenge for the trophy with a big senior year. Henne is, to a lesser extent, also a candidate to consider, but he would have to really be fantastic in 2007 to have a shot.

Jamaal Charles of Texas is off to a slow start this season, in part because he shares so many carries with Selvin Young. Next year, though, he'll have the tailback spot all to himself and could have the kind of season that grabs Heisman notice.

UCLA's Ben Olson is likely to be the first quarterback selected when he applies for the draft, but in the meantime, he could lead a Bruin resurgence in 2007. He's the closest thing to Carson Palmer since, well, Carson Palmer. If he has a good year--but not so good that he leaves early--then he will be a legit candidate next season.

Antonio Pittman of Ohio State isn't particularly flashy, but he will be coming off another 1,000-yard season and could potentially be a candidate in '07.

The Darkhorses will include Jonathan Stewart and Dennis Dixon of Oregon, Kyle Wright of Miami, Sam Keller of Nebraska and Jimmy Clausen of Notre Dame (just kidding).

The Oklahoma-Texas game is shaping up to be a huge one in determining the Heisman winner.

In short, that game will be Adrian Peterson's chance to make his Heisman statement.

Right now, Peterson is averaging 171 yards per game. He is perceived as the player that makes OU go--and that is a pretty valid perception.

While Troy Smith leads the race at this early stage, Peterson is more of a known quantity to the Heisman voters. If he has a big game in a win against Texas, he will almost assuredly become the front runner. It will also ensure that Oklahoma remains in the spotlight as a highly-ranked team

But the game could provide other dividends for Peterson. If OU wins, the Sooners will likely play in the Big 12 title game, which will enable Peterson to have one more game to pad his stats before the Heisman vote is finished.

With Smith's season finished after Nov. 18, that extra game could be all that Peterson needs to win.

There are only four players left in college football with a chance to win the Heisman Trophy.

Those players are:

1. Troy Smith, Ohio State--He is the front runner right now because he is the quarterback of the No. 1 team and he is performing well. He's got some clear sailing until that big game against Michigan on Nov. 18.

2. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma--It seems as if OU really wants Peterson to win, which means that the junior tailback really could stay on his current 2,200-yard pace. If he gets 2,000 yards, he'll win.

3. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame--The Michigan game hurt, no question, but Quinn can still win if he finishes strong with a win over USC and Smith and Peterson both stumble. It's not all likely to happen, but it's possible.

4. Chris Leak, Florida--He is the main darkhorse in this race. He now leads the nation in passing efficiency and his team is undefeated. His Heisman fate will be determined by what he does against LSU, Auburn and Georgia in October.

Everyone else in the race is jockeying for positions 2 through 10 at this point.

If the vote were held today, it would look like this:

1. Troy Smith
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Chris Leak
4. Brady Quinn
5. Steve Slaton
6. Garrett Wolfe
7. Michael Hart
8. Kenny Irons
9. JD Booty
10. Calvin Johnson

Someone asked me recently:

"What if Erik Ainge keeps performing like he has been?"

My answer was:

"Then he will win the Heisman."

But let's get serious. Ainge currently has a pass efficiency rating of 226.6, which is 50 points higher than the NCAA record. He has 624 passing yards and 7 TDs in two games. Those aren't normal stats.

Over the course of a season, that would equate to 4,056 passing yards and 45 touchdowns.

Naturally, if he put up those numbers, he would win the Heisman. Hell, Tennessee would probably run away with the national title with numbers like those.

The problem is that it ain't going to happen. It's just impossible.

There's no doubt that Erik Ainge has really improved compared to last season. But I think he will have to come down to earth at some point and settle in at a certain level. Unfortunately, that return to normalcy is a steep fall.

I tell you what, though--he may be setting himself up for a Heisman run in '07.

It takes some luck to win the Heisman. Everything has to fall into place perfectly.

So far, things are going Chris Leak's way.

He has been buoyed by an influx of talented, ready-to-play freshmen and now he will face Tennessee with two Vol defenders just lost for the season.

So far this season, Leak has 600 yards passing, 7 TDs and 2 interceptions. His pass efficiency rating is 185.6, which is currently sixth in the nation.

The Tennessee game will be his first chance to make some noise in the Heisman race.

But it will be the three-game stretch mid-season when the Gators play LSU, Auburn and Georgia that will tell us whether he has the stuff Heismans are made of.

The Auburn game, in particular, should be interesting, as the winner will probably produce the SEC's primary Heisman candidate for 2006.

The Gators could be 5-0 when LSU comes to Gainesville. At that point, the Meyer offense should really be rolling and Leak could be on his way to an incredible senior year.

There's no doubt that Kenny Irons is a great tailback.

But an SEC back hasn't won the Heisman since 1985, when fellow Auburn Tiger Bo Jackson turned the trick.

Irons is off to a solid start this season, with 252 yards in two games. But he only has one touchdown so far and there are signs that some of his yards may be taken by talented backup Brad Lester.

He's got a big game coming up this Saturday against LSU and perhaps that can be his statement game.

So, what does he need to do in that game and in the season to really have a shot at the Heisman?

First, he needs to score at least two touchdowns against LSU.

Second, he must rush for minimum 150 yards.

If he can get that done, he'll be set up nicely, since Auburn follows the LSU game with Buffalo, South Carolina and Arkansas. Those are all games in which he can gain a lot of yardage and build momentum.

Ultimately, he will need at least 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns to be a serious Heisman candidate at season's end.

And it wouldn't hurt if Auburn was undefeated, either..