Jacob Wheatley Schaller Posts

After last year's shocking World Series appearance, the Tampa Bay Rays came into 2009 with significantly increased expectations. Most were still picking the Yankees and Red Sox to finish in the top two spots on the AL East, but in just one season the Rays had gone from laughingstock to a consensus 90-92 win team.

That hasn't worked out too well for them, as they're currently on pace to win 83 games, which would be 14 fewer than last year. That's disappointing, certainly, but their underlying performance really hasn't been that much worse.

In 2008, Tampa Bay outscored their opponents by 103 runs; so far this season, that figure is 58. So they've clearly been worse in 2009, but their run differential only suggests a four to five win discrepancy between the two years, a stark contrast from their potential drop in the win column.

One year ago today, the Arizona Diamondbacks trailed the Dodgers by 3 1/2 games in the NL West. At the time, that was the fourth closest divisional race in the majors, with Boston, Minnesota and the Mets each being within two games of the team they were chasing. Nobody really thought a whole lot of this; with the current six-division format, we had come to take multiple competitive mid-September divisional races for granted.

That's all changed this season though. Transported into 2009, the Dodgers' '08 margin would be the most tenuous of any division lead in baseball.

Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds have five teams with at leaste a 95 percent chance of winning their division, which is nearly unprecedented at this stage of the season. For the first time in years, it's shaping up to be a pretty boring September.

By mid-September, there is usually a favorite for most of the MLB regular season awards. Looking around this year, there are clear frontrunners in the races for the AL MVP (Joe Mauer), AL Cy Young (Zack Greinke), NL MVP (Albert Pujols). But, even with less than 3 1/2 weeks remaining in the regular season, the race for the National League Cy Young remains muddled.

Last week in this space we looked at the players which have been most valuable through the first two months of the season. Those are the guys that always get the most press, but the other end of the spectrum -- players who are costing their teams dearly -- is really more interesting.

There's nothing to do when a guy is playing well other then watch him dominate; when a player is struggling, though, especially as much as these guys are, there's a problem that desperately needs to be solved. We'll look at the two guys who, according to FanGraphs' player values, have been even less valuable than the most high-profile case in this category, David Ortiz.

Now that we've almost turned the calendar to June, it's a good time to start taking some of the league leaders seriously. Emilio Bonifacio is no longer hitting .500 (he's actually all the way down to .246 after a huge first week), and most of the names atop the leaderboards are the ones you'd expect. This is especially true for FanGraphs' "Value" section, which looks at how many wins each player has been worth in all facets of the game.

Coming into 2009, the Detroit Tigers' rotation didn't exactly look like a strength. Every member of the staff had some serious question marks, which was a big reason that very few analysts picked the Tigers to emerge victorious from the AL Central. But now, as we approach June, a few Detroit starters have answered those concerns emphatically, making the Tigers the clear favorite to win the division.

The Dodgers have gotten off to a fantastic start, winning 21 of their first 30 games, including each of their first 13 at home before last night's loss to the Nationals. With none of the other four teams in the NL West getting off to even remotely comparable starts, that leaves the Dodgers six games clear of the rest of the division, and a whopping nine ahead of the team most picked to finish second back in March, Arizona.

Los Angeles' big early lead, along with the fact that they pretty clearly look like the best team in the division, had led some to declare the race over, even before Mother's Day. Obviously, losing Manny Ramirez for the next 50 games changes that equation a bit. But how much?

It's rather strange to say that 9-14 is a disappointing start for the Tampa Bay Rays, but they've put us in that position after their incredible emergence in 2008. Predicted by most to contend for another AL East title after last year's 97-win season, Tampa Bay disappointed in April, which has people wondering whether the Rays are for real, or if last year was just a fluke.

First off, there are a couple external factors that have negatively affected Tampa Bay in the early going. Residing in the AL East, it has to deal with a difficult schedule all the way through, but the first month was particularly tough. According to the advanced projection systems (PECOTA and CHONE), the average winning percentage of their opponents in the season's first month was .524. Over their final 139 games that SOS will drop slightly, down to .514.

In 2008 the Seattle Mariners, projected by many to contend with the Angels for the AL West title, suffered through a miserable season, finishing the year 61-101. Because of that disappointment -- they ended the season 39 games behind first place L.A. -- people were generally down on their prospects in '09. So when they started hot out of the gate, 9-6 and 2 1/2 games clear of the rest of the division, it took many by surprise.

For a variety of reasons, though, it's really not all that shocking. First and foremost, it's only 15 games; I mean, come on, even the Pirates are 9-6. But there were also a number of reasons to think that Seattle would be significantly improved entering the season.

FanHouse continues its 2009 MLB Preview with a look at the Tampa Bay Rays.

Although they ended up falling short at the end, 2008 was the year of the Rays. After being the butt of jokes for the first 10 years of its existence, Tampa Bay turned an impressive collection of baseball talent into an impressive team, finally assembling a competent bullpen, and utilizing some position shifts to put a much improved defense on the field. With the pieces in place, everything came together, and the Rays increased their win total by 31 games on their way to winning both the AL East and AL pennant.