Matthew Greber Posts

But there are other players whose value just changed with these injuries as well. They're not replacing the player in question, but the loss of that guy changes their own value – some in good ways, others in bad. Let's take a look.

Tom Brady's knee: And sure, Cassel gets himself a gig. But another first round fantasy pick also loses a decent amount of value in Randy Moss, who will now be trying to catch passes from a guy who has never had a starting job since high school. Wes Welker, ranked at or near the top-10 in WR himself, also loses value – though presumably less because he tends to run shorter routes that should be easier on what amounts to a rookie QB.

Vince Young's knee: Unless you play in the deepest of leagues, you don't own, nor did you really even consider, starting WRs Justin Gage and Justin McCareins. In fact, you may have been unaware that starters share the same first name. In truth, Collins is a better quarterback than the injured Young, so the two Justins both get a bump, albeit a small one in value. At RB, Chris Johnson's value spiked up with his performance in Week One, and there's no reason for that to come down without Young behind center. LenDale White also probably deserves to get a bit more love, since there should continue to be plenty of carries to go around.

It's a tried-and-true philosophy, one that has guided more fantasy football drafts than perhaps all other strategies combined: Take running backs with your first two picks.

A solid running back is the secret sauce to fantasy football – it's truly hard to win with problems at that position, while you can go a bit more low rent with the rest of your team. While there have always been teams that will grab an elite QB or WR in those first two rounds, it's the strategy where it's hardest to go wrong. (Unless you grab guys like Anthony Thomas or Reuben Droughns, two guys who went in the top two rounds in drafts of years past to the chagrin of their owners.)

Well, like many of the theories you heard about growing up, it turns out to not be true. At least not for this season.

In fact, it's a fair bet that close to half the teams in most leagues won't take their second running back until the third round – or later.

Here at the Fantasy Fanhouse, we do everything we can to help you prepare for your fantasy draft. (And once your league does their draft, there's no better place to host it than fleaflicker.com.)

A little over a month ago, we had ourselves a Fantasy Roundtable about what pick you'd actually prefer in this years draft. Looking over that, I don't think anyone said anything they yet regret (though, undoubtedly, it's just a matter of time).

The general consensus was that ideally one would get either a top-three pick, or work backwards from the 10th pick to capitalize on getting a higher second-round pick.

But what's the flip side of that question?

That is, what's the worst draft pick position?

In my mind, it's a no-brainer that sixth is the worst place to be.

But, you may say, that's crazy talk. With the sixth pick, you can grab either one of the top five running backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson, possibly but not necessarily in that order) or the top at their positions, Tom Brady or Randy Moss.

The drop off in all of those positions is notable after those top seven guys, so locking down one of them is a clear advantage.

Ah, but what really sets off a draft is the first two slots. And that's where drafting sixth really starts to sting.

Have you started prepping for your draft yet? Have you started a free fantasy football league yet? If so, Mistakes Were Made is a series that looks at prior drafts in order to not repeat the sins of the past. Previously, we examined why Shaun Alexander was so misread before last season's draft. Today, it's Tennessee Titans QB Vince Young.

Before the 2007 season started, nobody in the league had been upgraded as much as Titans QB Vince Young. In his rookie season of 2006, Young had ended on a high note. From Week 12 on, he had one terrible game and the rest ranged to very solid to spectacular.

Going into drafts, Young was being seriously touted. Many pundits ranked him solidly as a QB1, especially in twelve team leagues. At least one major publication had him ranked as the #8 quarterback overall. Instead, Young was barely usable as a QB2 most weeks and finished the season barely in the top-20 overall.

Why did people miss so badly? The answer is surprisingly simple: rushing touchdowns.

In 2006, Young scored seven times on the ground, masking his mere 12 TD through the air. Rushing touchdowns are notoriously hard to predict, even for bonafide running backs. To be worthy in anything but a TD-only league, a player has to be at least a semblance of a complete player. Last season, Young not only declined his passing touchdowns from twelve to just 9, he scored just three rushing TD. That's the same amount that the virtual statue Peyton Manning scored.

Part of the blame was the woeful offense of the Titans – it's hard to throw touchdowns to guys who can't get open. But fantasy pundits and owners blew it because they overlooked how fragile his 2006 statistics were. Luck plays a big part in all of sport – it's just important to recognize it when it's there.

As part of the preseason fantasy football preparation, we at the Fantasy Football FanHouse are looking at all angles. One of those, which doesn't always get acknowledged, is what we did WRONG last year, and how we can learn from that this year. There's an old saying about those who fail to learn from history are bound to ... well, do something.

As a preface, since entire articles about what any one of us did with our teams have limited appeal, when we write about mistakes "we" made, it's more of a comment on the consensus opinions from last year, and how they went off track. We're caling this feature Mistakes Were Made.

Take, for example, Shaun Alexander in last years draft. Just two years prior, in 2005, he'd had an MVP season with 1880 rushing yards, 28 – yes, 28 – touchdowns and was seen as one of the safest picks in all of fantasy. But in 2006, he fractured his foot (which is pretty important for a running back) and lived up to the Madden Curse, and posted a mere fraction of the stats his owners had paid for.

Then came last year's draft. What to make of him? Supposedly healed and free of any videogame related hexes, Alexander went in most drafts after other so-called locks like LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson and, occasionally, Joseph Addai. And his season turned out even worse than in 2006, causing the Seahawks to send the former MVP packing. Alexander still has no job as of this post.

So what can we learn? What information did we flat out ignore, or at least trivialize out of our decision making? (And let's just once again acknowledge the Madden Curse, and move on, okay?)

His age. Prior to the 2007 season, Alexander was 31, coming off his first major injury as a professional athlete. That's not a good age on a running back, and when we're talking about a running back's age, it's really the age on his legs. This was a back who had no less than 350 touches a season five years in a row, capped by a whopping 370 carries alone in 2005. That's a serious amount of wear-and-tear, and though Alexander had been solid, a crack in the matrix is all it takes.

His line. Some owners were openly concerned about the loss of left guard Steve Hutchinson who left for Minnesota. But many argued that one offensive lineman does not a blocking scheme make. Well, it definitely didn't help things.

His motivation. Look, I actually hate the whole, "He signed a big contract, he's not motivated any longer," or the flip side of gambling on a player looking for that free agent deal. But after you become the highest paid running back in the history of the NFL, one could argue that the hunger might be satiated just a bit.

So what's the takeaway here, aside from piling on a guy who doesn't have a fulltime job right now? Well, who are the candidates we could – and should – apply this logic to?

The Fantasy FanHouse team will occasionally debate pre-draft topics for your perusement, amusement and...something else that rhymes with those two words. Today's topic: If you could choose where you'd be drafting in a ten team league, which pick would you choose and why?

Matthew Greber: Alright, so let's start off at the point that was so ably teased by Snyder in the last Roundtable -- if you could choose what draft pick you had, which one would you take?

If folks don't mind, I'm going to suggest that we assume it's a 10-team league which seem to be the most prevalent.

We actually have had this rule in my main league for awhile -- or, we did. Folks with the #1 "pick" could then choose what draft pick they actually got. In practice, it pretty much went that the #1 guy would take the first pick, and so on down the ladder with very little variety. So, we scrapped it. But I'm thinking that if we still had it in place, that wouldn't be the same this year. At least it wouldn't be so for me.

Cause if I have my choice, sure -- I'll take LaDanian Tomlinson with the first pick. But if someone else snags the #1 slot, I'd prefer #10 to anything else. I'll take two of Ryan Grant, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch there and be just as happy as I would be with LDT and whoever is left at #20 and #21.

Fantasy FanHouse: What say you?

Will Brinson: I want, in order: 1,2,3 and then 10,9,8; essentially I want top three or a bottom pick. I think deciding which of Jackson/Gore/Westbrook is too risky a proposition if I'm being handed the choice of where to start, especially considering it waters down your second round pick.

Hence, I either want top three (LT, Addai, Peterson) or I want to end up in the bottom. The end of the first round is especially attractive this year, because I think QBs and WRs will get taken in the first and second rounds more than normal (certainly Brady, Peyton and Moss will be gone by pick 10 or 12 and I've seen some places where Wes Welker -- WELKAH!!! -- went in the second round).

Because of that, I think that the end of round one affords you the ability to pick up two quality running backs -- Lynch and Grant are two I certainly have my eye on -- and still land a reasonably highly ranked WR at the end of the third round.

MG: I'd love to hear an argument for the middle of the round -- it's generally a nice place to be because you wait the least amount of time between picks. But yeah, unless I'm in a league where I specifically want to draft Peyton, Brady or Moss, I'm with you wanting the bookend picks. Grant and Lynch at the end, especially since it seems that Lynch isn't going to miss anytime despite being behind the wheel for a DUI hit and run, are really nice RBs to snare at the turn.

Welker going that early is awesome. Somehow I think that league is based in Bahstin. Off the top of my head I can name ten WR I'd want before him, but that's probably another roundtable topic.

In todays game against the Chicago White Sox, Dodgers rookie pitcher Clayton Kershaw was pulled after four innings after only giving up two runs.Kershaw only threw 69 pitches, hardly a yeoman-like effort.

So what's the deal? Is Kershaw hurt? Well, not as far as I can see - no reports suggests Kershaw was pulled for anything besides his ineffectiveness. 29 of those 69 pitches were balls, which isn't terrible but doesn't suggest he was locked into the zone.

Kershaw has yet to notch his first major league victory, and if you are a Dodger fan or in a fantasy league, that comes as a bit of a letdown considering the huge amount of hype surrounding the youngster. Sports talk radio, internet chats and office watercooler talk ask one question - is Kershaw a bust?

Hardly.

Let's face it -- one of the real joys of playing fantasy sports is the satisfaction of feeling smug, even superior, to the other folks in your league. Take, for instance, last season when a given owner tried to add Ryan Braun or Tim Lincecum prior to their call-up, only to find them sitting on your bench. There's no doubt that you felt pretty superior when they undoubtedly posted something like, "I can't believe he's already taken!" (Of course, this assumes a free agent world – otherwise, the same reaction would occur after you bid on that player weeks before anyone else did.)

On the other hand, this can go a bit too far sometimes. This year, I drafted Cameron Maybin, sure that I had myself a great combination of young speed and power – and then he got sent down by the Marlins, and it's far from clear when he'll be back in the bigs. I've stashed Colby Rasmus on a team where I have a bench that justifies it, even though it's not clear if he'll play before September.

Of course, this doesn't just apply to fresh young faces -- the savvy fantasy player can also pick up and stash a veteran who is out on the DL for a sizeable part of the year. Many folks have been holding on to Francisco Liriano for just this reason. (I'm of the theory that this is a waste since he'll be able to contribute very little when he does return.) But who else is likely out there on your free agent wire, potentially providing some free benefits to you down the stretch? Well, it turns out the Cardinals have a rash of pitchers with some prior success that should be hurling in the bigs sooner than later. Let's look at them and decide whether they are worth your bench space.

Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Bill Hall is the kind of player that drives fans – and fantasy owners – crazy. Is he the guy who cranked 35 HR in 2006, or the one who never hit more than 17 HR in any other season? Is he the crusher who swatted four HR by April 9, or the player who has only hit three more since then?

Moving back to third base gave Hall more fantasy value this year – in theory, at least. It turns out that, at least for NL-only leagues, the outfield is possibly shallower than third base. Regardless, owners who cackled with glee at the way Hall burst out of the gates are singing a decidedly different tune right now. Hall is batting just .217 and has not shown much plate discipline, adding only 12 walks the whole season.

So, what's the story here? Is Hall going to be a drag on your batting and/or on-base average, and even if that's the case, is he going to be able to justify it with quality power statistics?

Here at the offices of "Stud or Shelton" we examine players who seem to be outperforming expectations to see if they are for real, or instead a flash in the pan like former Tigers hotshot Chris Shelton. As always, we apologize for rubbing salt in the wound of the Shelton family.

If the San Francisco Giants started the season with one strength, it was the starting pitching. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum represent two of the most promising young starters in all of baseball and – at least before the season started – Barry Zito seemed like a decent #3 pitcher (even if he is the highest paid pitcher in the history of the game.) The rotation was set to be rounded out with Noah Lowry and Kevin Correia, but an injury to Lowry opened up a spot for Jonathan Sanchez.

Sanchez has absolutely taken advantage of this opportunity, though he got off to a rough start against the Brewers, allowing seven ER in just four IP. Owners who have hung tough with him since then have been quite happy, thanks, as Sanchez has only allowed another six earned runs in an additional 29.2 innings. Overall, this season he's 2-1, with 40 K against just 16 walks, with a 3.48 ERA and a respectable 1.28 WHIP. The kid has been dealing, that's for sure. The question is, is he a stud, or a flash in the pan?