Snowplow Driving Convict Posts

To recap last week's pick: It was bad. I predicted a 20-10 Pats win; reality intervened with a 17-7 loss.

Had the Pats won last week against Denver, I'm quite certain I'd be picking them to lose against the Bengals. They're on the road against an excellent team, and Cincinnati boasts a plethora of passing weapons poised to exploit the Pats' recently shoddy secondary.

After the sombering loss? I'm not so sure. I don't like to bet against the Pats when they've got a chip on their collective shoulder. They're looking for revenge. They're not facing Mike Shanahan's uncanny anti-Patriot mojo. Cory Dillon appears to have recovered from whatever injury kept him out for most of the Denver game. And I just can't see Tom Brady putting up two stinkers in a row. (Yes, let's not sugarcoat: Brady was awful last week.)

That said, I still think they lose. (And New England fans will go nuts. Which is ridiculous. They've started 2-2 before and then recovered to go 14-2 and win it all.) As for my pick against the spread? In the end, I'm going to (gulp) take the Pats and the 6 points. Futile final score prediction: Bengals 27, Pats 23.

Record against the spread so far: 1-1.

Faithful reader I.P. directs us to some comments from Jason Whitlock's ESPN column. Writes Whitlock:

"Besides the New Orleans Saints, which 2-0 squad is the league's biggest fraud? The New England Patriots, of course. One-possession victories over the Bills and the Jets do little to instill confidence. The Pats are headed to 2-2. They'll lose to a mediocre Denver squad this weekend and then they'll get spanked by Cincinnati and Bill Belichick will begin to miss all of the veterans he has let go."

Now, I generally like Jason Whitlock. But he clearly did not watch the Pats-Jets game. That was neck-stomping domination for 40 minutes, followed by a few freak plays that made the game look close. As I.P. notes, NFL final scores can be hugely misleading.

As for Whitlock's predictions? The Pats will not lose this week, at home, to a Broncos squad that isn't firing on all cylinders. (Unlike Whitlock, I won't call the Broncs mediocre -- because I wouldn't be at all surprised if they win 11 games this year and cruise into the playoffs.)

Now, losing to Cincinnati on the road next week is quite possible. But would also entail zero shame. The Bengals are good, they'll be at home, and no one's demanding the Pats go 16-0. A loss in a non-division game just ain't no thang.

Finally, let's tackle Whitlock's assertion that Bill Belichick will "miss all the veterans he has let go." This statement reeks of a casual observer who hasn't followed the Pats closely. Which vets is he talking about? Adam Vinatieri, who looks to be injured right now, and has been ably replaced by a rookie kicker with an electric leg? Willie McGinest, who won't be missed thanks to a resurgent Roosevelt Colvin? What about David Givens, you say? Well, I honestly think Reche Caldwell is his clone -- a possession receiver who plays big, has good hands, and lacks speed. They even wear the same #87. Yes, Deion Branch was a loss, but not the kind of loss that submarines a season. One good wide receiver is not the difference between success and failure in the NFL.

Last week I took the Pats, laying six to the Jets. Result: Victory! The Pats covered (barely), winning 24-17. (Which, incidentally, was not far off from my final score prediction of 24-13.)

This week the Pats are favored by 6.5 at home against the Broncos. I'm not hugely confident about this (strange things always seem to happen when the Pats face Mike Shanahan), but I think I have to take the Pats and lay the points once again. Were this on the road, and were this a slightly better Broncos team, I'd fully expect a straight-up Pats loss. But not at Gillette, and not against a Broncos squad that has yet to gel.

I envision a fairly low-scoring affair. The Broncs have mustered a measly 19 points in their first two games combined. I don't see Jake Plummer suddenly putting it together against a Pats defense that has stifled the run and will be improved against the pass.

On the other side of the ball, the Pats' run game has been a force, while the Broncos were weak against the rushing attacks of both the Rams and the Chiefs. I see the Pats pounding it on the ground and owning a huge advantage in time of possession, with some long, dominating drives. The Pats will continue to struggle with their deep and intermediate passing game (I see this clicking, with luck, around week five), but this flaw won't be fatal if mistakes are minimized.

Futile final score prediction: Patriots 20, Broncos 10. Big days for Laurence Moroney and Corey Dillon. Bad day for Jake Plummer. (And those calls for Jay Cutler only get louder.)

Record against the spread so far: 1-0.

I said it last week, I'll say it again -- a win is a win is a win.

THE GOOD: Midway through the third quarter, the Patriots led 24 to bagel. The Jets' first six possessions had ended punt; punt; punt; punt; punt; turnover on downs. The Pats' d-line (playing 4-3 for much of the game, in a bit of a surprise) was getting fantastic push and penetration. (Jarvis Green was just living in the Jets' backfield.) The Jets' run game was muzzled (51 yards all day), while the Pats' two-headed ground attack was off the heazy (147 yards in total). What's more, the first two and a half quarters saw Tedy Bruschi's return to the line-up, Chad Jackson's first career touchdown, and great results from the three tight end formation. At this point, the contest was an unmitigated fanny-whipping.

THE BAD: Everything after this was bad. To get specific: the Pats d-backs need to wrap up their tackles. Granted, Jericho Cotchery's 71-yard touchdown catch was a fluke (99 out of 100 times, safety Chad Scott's missile hit brings him down). But on Laveranues Coles' 46-yard TD, safety Eugene Wilson looked more like Eugene O'Neill, whiffing on the tackle as Coles took a long day's journey into the end zone. Better fundamentals, please, d-backs.

THE UGLY: Terrible play-calling by the Pats' coaching staff, I felt. The Pats were dominating the line of scrimmage, had the game well in hand, and just needed to keep things conservative and simple. Instead, the defense inexplicably began to send all-out blitzes, and got burned. Meanwhile, the offense, instead of running up the gut 15 more times and letting the o-line get its swerve on, forced a long throw downfield and got intercepted. Of course, this one may be on Brady, who threw into double coverage and paid the price. And much as I hate to say it, Brady was ugly on the day -- missing his spots, fumbling for the second consecutive week, and again throwing a pick that made the game much closer than it needed to be.

Overall, I'm not concerned. The Patriots team we saw for the first 37 minutes or so was a juggernaut. Powerful run game, imposing front seven. That team looked championship-bound. Let's hope the team we saw for the final 23 minutes won't show up again any time soon. And by the way, ledge-jumpers, the Eagles blew a 24-7 lead against a division foe today. So it could have been much, much worse. Take a deep breath and let's set our sights on the Broncos -- a team that's orders of magnitude better than the two we've faced so far, and is our first real test.

Now, however, it's time to start putting some fake money where my mouth is. I will only pick Pats games, as they're the only team I follow closely enough to risk fake money on. This week: The Pats are giving six, on the road, against the Jets.

I say give the six and take the Pats. Last week was an anomaly, with the Pats coming out flat and unfocused (reminiscent of the opener against Buffalo a couple seasons ago, which was an off-key prelude to a stellar campaign). There will be no lack of focus or energy this week. Like a QB coming to life after that first big hit, the Pats have awoken. And the Jets ... are not all that good. I don't think this game will ever be in doubt.

The Pats' offense isn't quite ready to break out yet, but it will control the ball with an effective run game and some long, clock-eating drives. The Pats' defense, with Tedy Bruschi back in the mix, will be strong from the get-go. I look for this unit (barring injuries) to gel into a dominant force over the course of the season. They've found a newly reliable CB in Ellis Hobbs, a new pass-rushing threat in the resurgent Roosevelt Colvin, and of course the big three up the middle (Richard Seymour, Bruschi, Rodney Harrison) can be counted on for some smart, nasty football. Predicting exact scores is a notorious exercise in futility, but here goes: Pats 24, Jets 13. Enjoy the game!

Bill Belichick press conferences are not, as a rule, loquacious affairs. This Monday was no exception. Some sample answers (each reprinted in its entirety):

"No, I didn't say that."

"I haven't thought about it."

"I'm not a lawyer."

There was, however, one moment in which Belichick perhaps granted us a tiny peek into his thinking. Asked whether the team was "held back" by having only three wide receivers active against the Bills, Belichick seized the opportunity to talk about the run game. "Troy Brown, I thought ... he blocked as well as we've had a receiver block in quite a while here. He had a lot to do with some of the yards we gained in the running game."

It's just reading tea leaves (and that's the best you'll get from Coach Tightlip), but I sense this season we'll see an unprecedented focus on running the ball. Two good feature backs in Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney. A somewhat depleted wideout corps, missing Deion Branch and David Givens. All signs point to some smashmouth, up-the-gut offense in Foxboro this year.

If so, I say: Bring it on! Last year, Tom Brady threw for more yards than he ever had before ... and the Pats didn't reach the big game for the first time in three seasons. Brady attempted more passes last year than in any season since 2002 ... which was, perhaps not coincidentally, another down year for the Pats.

The Pats always seem to zig when other teams zag (drafting players no one else has high on their boards; running a 3-4 defense when everyone else runs a 4-3). It could be that, as much of the league adopts the popular spread formation/quick pass look, the Pats are getting ready to kick it old school.

A win is a win is a win. The Pats showed some mettle, coming back from a 17-7 halftime deficit. That said, they left room for improvement. Like acres and acres of room. Some initial thoughts:

The stark contrast between the first and second halves was all about line play, on both sides of the ball. In the first half, the Pats O-line came out flat and got steamrolled in pass protection. The D-line also had trouble, giving Bills running backs an easy time of it. (Vince Wilfork in particular failed to shed blocks and make tackles.) In the second half, though, the energy visibly ramped up and the Pats started winning the trench wars. This was the difference in the game.

Brady was not up to his own standards, completing only 11 of 23 passes with two fumbles and an interception. In part, this was the fault of his O-line. He was hassled all day. But he also made an uncharacteristically awful throw (short and off the mark) on what could have been a game-changing pick in the final quarter.

I'd like to know why the Pats ran almost no play-action. Given the relative success of the run game, you'd think a few patented Brady ball fakes might have caught the Bills off balance. Was play-action not in this week's game plan for some reason?

Roosevelt Colvin is back, and he's back big.

Laurence Maroney = stud. Vision, speed, agility, power. I'm going to enjoy watching him this year.

Would Deion Branch have been a difference maker today? I don't think so. Brady had little time to throw, and anyway the wideouts generally caught the balls that came to them on target. As I said, the Pats' fortunes in this game rose and fell with their line play. And I expect this facet of their game to improve as the season goes on.

Next week: the Jets. Chad Pennington had a nice afternoon against the Titans, but I'm liking our chances with Gang Green. I foresee a 2-0 start. And there ain't nothing wrong with that.

There's been a lot of anguished handwringing over the lack of Pats receiving threats. Deion Branch may or may not play this season. Troy Brown is a year older and a step slower. Rookie Chad Jackson is just now getting back on the field. And who knows what to expect from Doug Gabriel and Reche Caldwell?

Should we be concerned? Sure, a little. But step off the ledge, dude. For one, the tight ends (led by sure thing breakout stud Ben Watson) will take up a lot of the slack. And more important: This offense is about execution, not playmaking. Solid receivers who run good routes and catch the ball will keep things humming. Star players are nice, but for this team not essential.

Perhaps a trip down memory lane will cement my point. Faithful reader I.P. notes that the Pats won their first Super Bowl with a collection of no-name skill players. RB Antowain Smith. TE Jermaine Wiggins. And the receivers? Yes, Terry Glenn made a cameo appearance, but had little impact. Troy Brown was a minor god that year, but he made his biggest plays on special teams. (And few would have considered him a top-flight NFL receiver, which is the claim Branch seems to be making for himself.) David Patten? Love him but ... meh. As best I can tell, the Pats' third wideout that year was Charles Johnson.

Charles Johnson?? I thought he used to catch for the Marlins or something.

Can we pass judgment on the Dolphins after just one game? Of course we can! Cross those 'Fins off the contenders list!

Granted, they played the defending champs. On the road. But guess what: That was fumblin' Charlie Batch out there, not Big Ben. And guess what else: Batch still outplayed Daunte Culpepper!

Ah, Daunte. He'll lead the 'Fins to glory, said the prognosticators. Tonight: Zero touchdowns. Two interceptions. Completed fewer than half his passes. Biggest play came when the d-back slipped and fell. Looked awful once the Steelers made their halftime adjustments. And appeared to get the yips just a little towards the end there, too.

Don't get me wrong -- the Dolphins are a decent team. They held their own out there for a while. They've got a solid coach and they're on the right track. Next year I predict they'll be a very good team -- perhaps even good enough to hang with the Pats.

But this year? I see them at 8-8. Possibly 7-9 if things go wrong. Possibly 9-7 if things go right (on the bubble for the playoffs but, awwwwww, not quite sneaking in). Pats fans, relax. The division is safe.

By the way, I loved when Nick Saban pitched a 55-footer on that challenge flag. Looked like a post-surgery Ramon Martinez.