Trent Johnson's decision to leave Stanford for LSU is not just a case of a coach leaving a program on the slide for more money and a new opportunity. As Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury-News explains, Stanford AD Bob Bowlsby delayed extending Johnson's contract for unclear reasons, creating a situation in which he felt underappreciated and open to looking for other jobs.
If these reports are to be believed, then Bowlsby handled this situation extremely poorly. He said throughout the season that he would absolutely get a contract worked out right when the season ended, but nothing has happened in the two weeks since Stanford was knocked out of the NCAA Tournament. Bowlsby had several opportunities to get this deal done in the fall or during the season, but he kept delaying it and then didn't even get the work done when no more excuses could be made.
Now, it's important to note that these are still rumors. However, these rumors come from people very close to the program and have some pretty clear validity. Johnson often stated that Stanford was his dream job. It's obviously possible that he was lying, but almost everyone who's ever come in contact with the man has characterized him as a straight shooter who believes in Stanford's true commitment to academic excellence from athletes. Put simply, it would have taken a lot of ill will to get him to leave the school. Bowlsby showing no love for the Pac-10 Coach of the Year probably would have been enough.
Arizona guard Jerryd Bayless, who led the Wildcats in scoring and made several All-American teams, will declare for the NBA Draft. The likely high-lottery pick has hired an agent and will therefore lose his remaining three years of eligibility. Bayless leaves Tucson without having played for Lute Olson, the coach who recruited him to Point Guard U.
This isn't too much of a surprise for anyone who watched Bayless this season. He's able to get into the paint at will, has one of the best pull-up jumpers in the nation, and has the skills to excel at point guard at the next level. Both DraftExpress.com and NBADraft.net have him as a Top 5 pick, and it's hard to believe that his workouts would drop him much lower than that.
The Wildcats will obviously miss Bayless's presence in Tucson, but the arrival of freshman point guard (and flat-top enthusiast) Brandon Jennings should offset some of the damage. The real issue here will come if Bayless's decision opens the floodgates in Arizona. Both Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill would go in the first round of the draft, so it's possible that they would declare before the deadline. Those three players carried Arizona this season and would be sorely missed. If Budinger and Hill return, then the Wildcats should be one of the best teams in the Pac-10 next year.
Cal's high-profile hiring of Mike Montgomery is a huge one for a program that has seen some mediocre coaching and play over the last few seasons. Monty deserves every bit of his reputation as a top-shelf teacher who gets everything out of his players. But he also comes with some baggage that could limit the effect that he will have on the Bears.
The most important of these issues is his willingness to recruit. Towards the end of his time at Stanford, Montgomery didn't put a ton of energy into recruiting, and the team suffered for it. His last two recruiting classes of Fred Washington, Tim Morris, Taj Finger, Peter Prowitt, and walk-on Kenny Brown produced some important contributors, but none of these players never showed the promise of being anything more than key role players. Now, much of the reason for Monty's lack of vigor can be attributed to very high admissions standards for athletes that won't be present in Berkeley; he won't ever lose out on a player like David Padgett because of grades. Nevertheless, this issue remains an important question mark that could limit his success.
Stanford's going to look a whole lot different next season. Janie McCauley of the AP reports that twin big men Brook and Robin Lopez have decided to declare for the NBA Draft. Nothing has been specified about whether they have hired agents, but, given that the brothers are joined at the hip and Top 20 prospects, it's difficult to imagine either coming back to school.
Brook's departure is not exactly a shocker -- the Cardinal staff expected it and even (unsuccessfully) recruited players to fill his spot for next season. Brook is more polished offensively than his brother and should be a Top 5 pick. NBADraft.net currently has him at #3, while DraftExpress.com rates him at #4 in the draft. Brook is so skilled that it's hard to imagine his workouts being anything less than stellar, so it's unlikely that he will fall any lower than 5th. Both sites have him as the first big man chosen.
Robin, a defensive specialist, took a backseat to his brother at the offensive end in Palo Alto. However, his post moves have developed nicely over the course of the season, and his superior explosiveness makes some people think that he has a higher ceiling. In their latest rankings, NBADraft.net has him at #18, although DraftExpress.com has not yet moved him higher than #20.
This is not good news for Stanford. Everything they did at both ends this season revolved around the twins, but next year's roster won't have a player taller than 6-9. Furthermore, rising sophomores Josh Owens and Will Paul, the only two true post players on the team, have little experience and will need to grow up in a hurry. The Cardinal perimeter players were inconsistent this year, but they will have to carry the team in 2008-09.
Earlier today, my esteemed colleagues Charles Rich and Michael David Smith labeled Memphis's vicious blowout of Texas as yet another boring game in a string of second-weekend snoozers. Now, I like a close game as much as anyone else does, but I fail to see what is so boring about the most athletic team in the country playing at the height of their powers against another Top 10 team.
When Memphis is on, they're quite simply awesome to watch. Their superb athleticism at every position creates countless alley-oops, blocks, and transition opportunities. Derrick Rose, a certain Top 3 pick in June's NBA Draft, dominated DJ Augustin, a player most experts call the best point guard in the country. The Tigers used their insane quickness to make one of the quickest, steadiest backcourts in the country look out of control and outclassed. From my point of view, these accomplishments are rarer and more noteworthy than a tight finish. No matter the score, Memphis will always make a few plays that make your draw drop.
Exciting endings are obviously great and memorable, but they often come at the end of mediocre games. For instance, it's hard to argue that either Kansas or Davidson looked particularly stellar in today's admittedly exciting second game. As cool as it was to see the Wildcats nearly nip the Jayhawks, I have to admit that I had more fun watching Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts dismantle the Longhorns.
Cal Athletic Director Sandy Barbour made perhaps the most popular move of her tenure today when she announced the firing of Ben Braun, who leaves Berkeley after 12 seasons of modest success. Braun's overall record and accomplishments are certainly not embarrassing, but his teams -- particularly the recent ones -- had a knack for underachieving and failing in crunch time.
A solid recruiter, Braun went 219-154 and led the Golden Bears to five NCAA appearances (including a Sweet Sixteen in 1997, his first season) and an NIT Championship, so it's impossible to say that he was a complete failure as coach. However, his teams rarely outperformed expectations, which could be seen throughout this season. Cal had two probable NBA first-rounders in Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin and a wealth of offensive talent, but the Bears finished 17-16, went a poor 6-12 in an admittedly tough Pac-10, and lost to Ohio State in the second round of the NIT. Cal rarely looked interested in playing defense and dropped several games in the closing moments.
Trent Johnson's questionable ejection from today's Stanford/Marquette game could have sunk Stanford's season, but the team's two best players simply wouldn't allow it to happen. The Brothers Lopez combined for 48 of Stanford's 82 points in their overtime win over Marquette, including Brook Lopez's difficult leaner with 1.3 seconds left that gave the Cardinal the win.
Referee Curtis Shaw's ejection of Johnson had a huge effect on this game, although it's difficult to say who was given the bigger edge. The Cardinal got a lot of calls in the second half of this game, which gave them 20 free throws (in comparison to three for Marquette) in the second half. The twins certainly force their fair share of fouls in any game, but this large disparity suggests that the referee's might have made some makeup calls after the break.
Then again, Trent Johnson might have made some better coaching decisions in this game than the ones by assistant Doug Oliver. With Stanford up six points with 11:18, Oliver sat both Brook and Robin Lopez for the next 4:18. When they returned, Marquette had a one-point lead. Now, the decision to take them out was probably a good one given that they seemed on the verge of picking up technical fouls (and Robin had already picked up one of them), but sitting them for so long turned the momentum back to the Golden Eagles. It's tempting to think that Johnson would have brought at least one of them back sooner.
Conference: Pac-10 Record: 18-13, 9-10 Pac-10 RPI: 58 How They Got In: At-Large Bid Seed/Bracket: #9 in the South
Mascot: Ducks. Despite wearing a handkerchief around his neck, this mascot is known to get in sideline fights and wear his costume out to bars. It's safe to say that no mascot has ever been this cool while looking this silly.
Big Wins: Stanford, at Kansas State, Arizona (home/away), Arizona State
Notable Losses: at Nebraska, at Oakland, at Washington
Player You Should Know: The Ducks have a number of talented guards, but Maarty Leunen poses the most difficult matchup for opponents. Leunen is a face-up forward who shoots a great percentage from outside, so he pulls out bigger defenders and opens up driving lanes for the Oregon guards.
Outlook: Let me be blunt: I don't think Oregon deserved to get in ahead of Arizona State. The Sun Devils were a much more competitive team overall in the Pac-10 and actually beat the truly terrible teams on their non-conference schedule. The Ducks, on the other hand, struggled away from Eugene the whole season and regularly blow games in crunch time. Oregon can be very tough to beat when their athletic guards hit their shots, but that hasn't been common this year. Look for an early exit.
Conference: Pac-10 Record: 18-14, 9-11 Pac-10 RPI: 40 How They Got In: At-Large Bid Seed/Bracket: #10 in the West
Mascot: Wildcats. The name caught on in 1914 when a Los Angeles Times article stated that the team "showed the fight of Wildcats" in a football game against Occidental College.
Big Wins: Texas A&M, at USC, Washington State (home/away)
Notable Losses: at Kansas, at Memphis, Arizona State (home/away), Oregon (home/away)
Player You Should Know: Jerryd Bayless is one of the most dynamic guards in the country and a sure-fire lottery pick in June's NBA Draft. He's fantastic off the dribble and has one of the best pull-up jumpers in the game. Some people are surprised that the Wildcats got into the tournament, but it'll be worth it just to see Bayless on the game's biggest stage.
Outlook: Arizona lost both games to Arizona State this season, but this team legitimately deserves to be in the field. They had some horrible injury luck with both Bayless and Nic Wise going down for significant stretches of the season. Having the highest strength of schedule in the country doesn't hurt either. The Wildcats look very impressive at full strength and can be a handful when their stars are at their best. Arizona's not tremendously deep, but they have enough talent to win in the first round and give someone a serious scare in Round Two.
Conference: Pac-10 Record: 24-8, 12-8 Pac-10 RPI: 20 How They Got In: At-Large Bid Seed/Bracket: #4 in the East
Mascot: Cougars. The Wazzu homepage proudly announces that Butch T. Cougar won 2006's Capital One Mascot of the Year competition.
Big Wins: at Gonzaga, USC (home/away), Oregon (home/away), Arizona State (home/away), Notable Loss: at Cal. The Cougs also dropped all five of their games to conference Stanford and UCLA Player You Should Know: Guard Derrick Low leads the team in scoring, but wing Kyle Weaver is the team's most athletic and best player overall. He's one of the best perimeter defenders in the Pac-10 and a great playmaker off the dribble. Outlook: Simply put, Washington State is overseeded. They had some solid non-conference wins, but they failed too register a signature win in the Pac-10. They're not very deep and have questionable athleticism overall. A Sweet 16 now seems like a possibility given the draw, but don't be surprised to see them go out in the second round.
Arizona guard 
Stanford's going to look a whole lot different next season. 
Cal Athletic Director Sandy Barbour made perhaps the most popular move of her tenure today when she announced 
Conference: Pac-10
