Posts tagged 30 to watch at FanHouse

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

Is Rex Ryan too fat to be a head coach?

The answer to that question is, of course not. But the Baltimore Sun reports today that Ryan, the Ravens' defensive coordinator, has lost 60 pounds, getting down to 290, in an attempt to become a head coach -- which his weight may have been hindering.

"There's not too many fat guys that are coaches. I don't see how weight can make you a better coach," Ryan said. "But I guess if you're the face of the franchise, then that is important as well."

As long as the 290-pound version of Ryan coaches like the 350-pounder, the Ravens' defense will be in great shape this year. Yes, the loss of Adalius Thomas hurt, but they still have Bart Scott, their best linebacker, as well as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs, to name a few, and no coordinator in the league does a better job of taking all that talent and turning it into the kind of attacking defense that keeps quarterbacks up at night.

Bottom line: Expect Ryan to have the Ravens' defense among the best in the league again this year, and expect him to be a head coach in six months.

30 to Watch: See them all

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

There were lots of impressive rookies in the NFL last season, from Vince Young to Reggie Bush to DeMeco Ryans to Devin Hester.

But the best may have been Marcus McNeill, who stepped in as the Chargers' second-round draft pick started all 16 games at left tackle (the most important position on the offensive line), and helped the line become the best in the NFL.

McNeill was thought, before last year's draft, to be as good a run-blocker as top tackle prospect D'Brickashaw Ferguson, but nowhere near as good a pass blocker. Instead, McNeill proved he was better than Ferguson -- and just about every other NFL offensive lineman -- at both run blocking and pass blocking.

Phillip Rivers had a very good first season as a starter, and McNeill didn't get enough credit for contributing to that very good first season by protecting Rivers' blind side. When you watch the Chargers this year, take your eyes off the skill position players for a few plays and take a look at McNeill. You'll like what you see.

Bottom line: For Rivers' continued success, McNeill -- not LaDainian Tomlinson or Antonio Gates -- is the Chargers' most indispensable player.

30 to Watch: See them all

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

Yes, Quincy Wilson has just two carries for two yards in his NFL career, so he may seem like a strange choice to mention here. But I mention him for two reasons. One, I'll never forget the way Wilson finished this catch-and-run in college:


And two, the injury suffered by Bengals running back Kenny Irons last night could be significant, which means the Bengals need a change of pace for Rudi Johnson. Of the remaining running backs on the Bengals' depth chart, Wilson might be the best option.

Of course, Wilson got into a little bit of trouble this off-season, so he may be on shaky ground from that standpoint. But the fact that he played in last night's preseason opener indicates that the Bengals still have some faith in him. And with Irons out, they might need him.

Bottom line: Wilson won't be a star, but he could be a solid backup for the Bengals this year.

30 to Watch: See them all.

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

In 2004, his rookie season, Tampa Bay wide receiver Michael Clayton looked like a future superstar.

Well, looks can be deceiving. Today it was revealed that Clayton isn't even a starter in Tampa Bay, as he's been passed on the depth chart by Maurice Stovall.

So who is Stovall? He's a 6-foot-5, 222-pound product of Notre Dame who caught just seven passes as a rookie last year, but Pro Football Prospectus 2007 describes him as "the perfect Jon Gruden receiver: a big target for hitches and smash routes who can also work the middle of the field and block a little."

That's exactly what Tampa Bay needs. Clayton has been a huge disappointment the last two seasons, but Stovall is a young talent on the rise.

Bottom line: Stovall hasn't done much in the NFL yet, but he will this year. He might just become Jeff Garcia's favorite receiver.

30 to Watch: See them all.

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

Has any receiver in NFL history ever been demoted out of the starting lineup the year after leading the conference in catches? That may have happened to Lions receiver Mike Furrey, who led the NFC with 98 catches last year but will now apparently become the Lions' No. 3 receiver, behind Roy Williams and rookie Calvin Johnson.

Of course, in the offense run by Lions coordinator Mike Martz, the base offense includes three receivers, so that's not much of a demotion. But it is a little odd that a team that already had Furrey and Williams felt the need to add Johnson with the second overall pick. Then again, everything the Lions have done in the Matt Millen era is at least a little odd.

The point is, don't forget about Furrey. Williams and Johnson make more money and more highlight-reel catches, but Furrey is a great athlete who has found his niche playing for Martz.

Bottom line: There's way too much optimism coming out of Detroit this year, and the Lions will be lousy again, but it's completely reasonable to think Furrey could have another 90-catch season in 2007.

30 to Watch: See them all

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

To fully appreciate how good Javon Walker was last season in his first year as a Denver Bronco, you have to understand just how bad the rest of the Broncos' passing game was.

The advanced stats at Football Outsiders ranked the Broncos' passing offense 22nd in the league. Receivers Rod Smith, Brandon Marshall and David Kircus all came out below average in the Football Outsiders wide receiver stats. But despite playing in an otherwise terrible passing game, Walker ranked 16th in the Football Outsiders stats.

And he could be even better this year. He's completely healthy this year, something he couldn't say as he recovered from a knee injury last year. And quarterback Jay Cutler should continue to improve and do a better job of hitting Walker in stride on deep balls to take advantage of Walker's speed.

Bottom line: As Cutler improves, Walker has a chance on improving on last year's great numbers and being one of the NFL's top receivers.

30 to Watch: See them all

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

During the 2006 regular season, Bob Sanders was hurt and the Colts' defense was terrible. During the postseason, Sanders was hurt and the defense was good.

It's not quite that simple, of course, but the fact remains: The Colts have the highest-paid defensive player in the league in Dwight Freeney, but Freeney's presence seems to make less of an impact than that of Sanders, a fourth-year player who only makes a little more than the league minimum.

Sanders is starting training camp on the physically unable to perform list because of off-season shoulder surgery, but that's not necessarily bad news for the Colts. In fact, seeing Sanders on the sideline for most of the year might be a good sight for Colts fans because it would make him more likely to be healthy when the playoffs start. Sanders is an incredible talent with an incredible penchant for getting hurt. It's not realistic for the Colts to expect him to play 16 games and the playoffs, but it is realistic to expect him to make a huge impact when he is on the field.

Bottom line: The Colts' offense is good enough to get them to the playoffs. As long as Sanders is healthy in January, he doesn't need to contribute much in the regular season.

30 to Watch: See them all

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

The word out of Falcons camp is that coach Bobby Petrino genuinely believes he can win with Joey Harrington at quarterback.

Stop laughing.

Yes, it's true, Harrington has a lower career passer rating than Michael Vick, and he's just a wee bit less of a running threat than Vick. But Harrington isn't quite as bad as most people think. There's no quarterback in the NFL who could win with the Matt Millen-era Lions. None. The Lions were better in the four years with Harrington at quarterback than they were in 2002, the year before he arrived, or 2006, the year after he left.

And Harrington looks like a better fit in the Petrino offense than he did in the Marty Mornhinweg/Steve Mariucci offense he was forced into in Detroit. Harrington throws a good deep ball, and Petrino will make better use of that skill than any of his previous NFL coaches have.

Bottom line: Could Petrino be right? Could the Falcons be winners with Harrington at quarterback? Probably not. The Falcons don't have the look of anything better than a 7-9 team. But at the same time, the dropoff from Vick to Harrington isn't as large as most people think.

30 to Watch: See them all

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

The Bears signed cornerback Charles Tillman to a contract extension today that will keep him in Chicago through 2013 and pay him a total of $38 million, with $18 million guaranteed. (UPDATE: It was really more along the lines of $29 million through 2012.) Tillman is a young and talented player, and the contract seems to be a fair deal for both sides.

But look a little closer at the Bears' defense, and it shows that Chicago is putting a lot of eggs in the cornerback basket. The Bears already gave cornerback Nathan Vasher a new contract with $14 million guaranteed this year, and last year they signed Ricky Manning to a five-year, $21 million contract.

Lovie Smith is the best defensive mind in the game, and if he thinks spending big money on cornerbacks is the way to keep his defense humming, then the Bears' front office should spend money on cornerbacks. But it's hard not to think that a team that lost three of its top four defensive tackles from last season, and that still hasn't signed its franchise player outside linebacker, is devoting too much money to the corners. Tillman had better be worth every penny of his $18 million payday.

Bottom line: As long as Lovie Smith is running the show, the Bears' defense will be strong. But with so much money tied up in the three cornerbacks, the front seven is likely to take a step back

30 to Watch: See them all

A regular look at 30 people who will affect the 2007 NFL season.

Thomas Jones and the Bears never quite fit together. The team wanted to give his starting job to Cedric Benson, and he was angry that Benson made more money despite giving the team less production.

Now Jones has been traded to a new team, the Jets, where he heads into the season as the unquestioned starter. He should get the ball 20 times a game or so, and he should provide an upgrade to the Jets' mediocre running game.

There is just one problem, though: The Jets' offensive line isn't as good as the Bears'. And it's likely to get worse if guard Pete Kendall, who is unhappy with his contract, is sent packing. That means that while the acquisition of Jones was a good move for the Jets, another 1,200-yard season would be a tall order.

Bottom line: Jones will help the Jets' running attack, but his numbers will suffer as he adjusts to playing behind a weaker offensive line.

30 to Watch: See them all.