Texas. Home to the Burnt Orange Nation. And quarterbacks named Colt. And, of much annoyance, Matthew McConnaughey. But we'll forgive them this one time because their football team is loaded this year and everyone loves a winner.
The 'Horns have a lot of good guys coming back and some things to prove after slipping a bit to 10-3 last year (10-2 U ?). Two close games went their way last year - a 35-31 win over Texas Tech and the straight up manna from heaven 22-20 luck job against Nebraska.
Evening things out a bit, two close games also went the other way - a 45-42 loss to Kansas State and a 12-7 loss to rival Texas A&M. One theme from both losses: quarterback Colt McCoy got knocked out of each game. Kid's tough, but when you're on your butt, you're on your butt. If he's on the field full time in 2007, this team should be good good good.
WHY THEY'LL WIN
Since Mack Brown arrived in Austin, all this program has done is win, win, win. It took a transformational player like Vince Young to get the program over the top against Oklahoma and into a national championship, but they were plenty good before him and continue to be good after him. Brown sports a nifty 93-22 record here, with just 14 conference losses in his nine seasons.
There's no clear threat to the Texas/Oklahoma hegemony atop this conference, so count on another record like last year's at worst. As a bonus, there's no Ohio State on the schedule and Colt McCoy won't be performing his "Bambi's awkward first steps" act against week two foe TCU (see Texas/Ohio State, 2006)
As a matter of analysis, I should mention that this team is strong along the defensive line, fairly solid at linebacker and athletic but inexperienced in the secondary. However, two back-to-back loaded recruiting classes are making a huge push to contribute to those position groups.
On offense, Colt McCoy is back and has added pounds to that 6-3 frame to absorb some of the beatings he couldn't get up from last year. Jamaal Charles slightly disappointed last year and in response added weight and an extra chip on his shoulder. The receivers go five strong with several other youngsters also making a push. The offensive line looks a little down from previous units, but the optimist will say that's picking a nit.
All the 'Horns' flaws are relative, as this looks like a top 10 or top 15 team at worst and more likely a legitimate back of the pack national title contender. Good times are ahead.
Oklahoma. Where the wind comes sweeping down the plain. Where The Outsiders was set. Where dreams are made 17% of the time. Where Barry Switzer got into strange yammerings about Taco Bowls.
Part renegade, part cavalcade, Oklahoma spent the offseason doing its best "who, me?" before the NCAA. The NCAA said "yes, you!", invented some mishmash punishment and the 2007 season gets filed under "probation".
They've seen this before in Norman, but it doesn't make them any less thrilled to face sanction. Count on coach Bob Stoops using the situation in an attempt to motivate his charges against a middling Big 12 and an improving rival in Texas.
WHY THEY'LL WIN
Oklahoma remains a weakened but viable power. The recruiting remains top-notch but the offense and defense both lack the pop we saw earlier in the decade. Blame that on an exodus of quality assistants and the psychological damage of dropping two championship game appearances, one of them made after an embarrassing conference title game defeat. The edge is gone, but these guys still win lots of ballgames and have gone from ownership of the Big 12 to co-ownership with Texas. Not bad, really, just not what it once was either.
The Sooner must replace steady senior Paul Thompson at quarterback and look to have relatively unheralded options in either favorite Sam Bradford or Joey Halzle. This would be a problem, but Josh Heupel and Jason White were once little-known soft-tossers as well. Oklahoma has experience navigating the national scene with quarterbacks whose chips are decidedly not blue and worn best on their shoulders.
Overall, both the offensive and defensive units should be among the best of the Bob Stoops era. Playmakers abound in receiver Malcolm Kelly and tailbacks Allen Patrick and shifty all-hype-team member DeMarco Murray.
On defense a few veterans were lost to graduation but overall this group is loaded with former elite recruits. The secondary will be considered the Big 12's best, at least until we know what the new crop of DB's can do at Texas. Best of all, the Sooners may have a pair of future All America defensive tackles in sophomore DeMarcus Granger and freshman Gerald McCoy.
This team tends to plow through the non-Texas Big 12 slate, losing just eight conference games since 2000. Once again, outside of Texas there isn't a credible third or fourth team in this league capable of playing to their level week-in, week-out. There is that tiny little issue of Miami being on the schedule, but to the Sooners' credit, that game will be in Norman and not steamy South Florida.
When you are Oklahoma and 50% of your schedule constitutes the following (North Texas, Utah State, Tulsa, Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor), you're feeling good about your chances right now.
Ah, Big 12 North. We had to include at least one contender from the Big 12's minor league division. An editorial vote, therefore, resulted in Nebraska's inclusion here. The Huskers are my labor of love and source of both joy and pain on Saturday's in the fall. Is a double digit win total too much to ask for?
WHY THEY'LL WIN
Continued progress is the party line in Lincoln. The Huskers have seen their win count jump from 5, to 8 and finally 9 victories during Bill Callahan's tenure. That's no minor feat given the renovation job Callahan faced. Complacency among the previous coaching staff led to poor talent evaluation and a series of modest recruiting classes. Consequently, Callahan inherited a mish-mash of power-option square pegs seeking solace in the round hole of his West Coast Offense. But from the ashes of the option has risen a dynamic, albeit inconsistent offensive attack. Nebraska finished in the Top 20 nationally in both total offense and scoring offense a year ago. The Huskers lost a heartbreaker at home to Texas and fell 17-14 to Auburn in a closely fought Cotton Bowl. Turn those results around and you're likely looking at the Huskers as a preseason Top 10 team this year.
As 2007 kicks off, Husker Nation is buzzing about the debut of former Arizona State quarterback Sam Keller. Keller might be the most talented passing quarterback to play at Nebraska since Vince Ferragamo, another transfer from the west coast, pitched the pigskin around the plains in the mid-1970s. Although he'll have just one year to prove himself, Keller should have all of the tools to run the Cornhuskers' offense to its fullest potential. His physically less-gifted predecessor, Zac Taylor - who was recruited by the likes of Marshall and Memphis out of junior college – left as the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. That's a tribute not only to Callahan's NFL-style offensive system, but also to his ability to get the best out of his signal callers.
An often-overlooked and perhaps even more valuable factor is the off-season promotion of Shawn Watson to offensive coordinator. Unlike previous offensive coordinator Jay Norvell, who left for UCLA, Watson brings a wealth of experience to the job in Lincoln. Watson ran Colorado's West Coast Offense for six years under Gary Barnett. During that time the Buffaloes displayed prodigious rushing and passing attacks on their way to four Big 12 North titles. With a new, experienced and trusted set of eyes on the field, the Nebraska offense could reach another level in 2007.
Ahh, the unhappy middle. It is the place that most drives sports fans insane. Everyone wants a great team, but few see those hopes achieved. For the fans of a bad team or a bad school, at least they know going in their team has limited hopes and can prepare themselves for dark days.
For others, however, it's a tortured existence. I'm talking about you, the fans of The Mediocre. These are those quality programs that have a pulse but are unlikely to pull things through like a contender would. For these teams, the season will be a success, if they can separate and make the Big 12 Championship Game.
The dregs is a perfect phrase to describe those scrappy but unfortunate teams left at the bottom of the Big 12's 2007 liquid brew. We mean well when talking about these teams, but somebody's gotta finish last and we've come up with a few nominees.
Count on these teams to either fall short of bowl eligibility or play in a less celebrated December bowl. Some pundits would consider tossing the entire Big 12 North division in here, but there's a way around that. Thus, a handful of teams that probably deserve to be mentioned here escape the strong pull of The Dregs' gravitational pull and orbit around a different celestial body: The Mediocre (published later today).
Oh, unhappy Plains State souls, let us deliver your eulogy in advance. The full and painful list in no particular order after the jump.
Much has been made of the cupcake scheduling employed by many Division I-A Football Bowl Subdivision teams for the 2007 season.In fact, we already chronicled the worst schedules in the Big 12 this season, as well as some of the seson's best games. For those who are too lazy to click, we present a bit of a refresher. We'll also take a look at the strangest non-conference pairings we could find.
Best schedule: Nebraska
The Huskers will get a chance to catch their breath in week four with a game against Ball State, but the first three weeks of the schedule are pretty brutal. Nebraska opens with Nevada who went 8-5 a year ago and lost 21-20 to Miami (FL) in the MPC Computers Bowl. The following week the Huskers travel to Wake Forest to take on the defending ACC champs at home.
The next week Nebraska will host the #1 team in the country in USC. The Huskers will be hoping for some Memorial Stadium magic as they look to avenge a 28-10 loss to the Trojans in 2006.
Nebraska's two biggest conference games are also both on the road at Missouri and at Texas. The Missouri game should decide the winner of the Big 12's North division. Now you see why the daunting schedule puts a dampener on some Husker fans' expectations for 2007.
Preseason discussions of "hot seats" tend to drive people nuts. I suppose we should let the season play out before summoning pink slips and the like. However, it doesn't hurt to mention whose seats are at least a little warm and toasty - and whose aren't.
Looking at the roster of Big 12 coaches, it looks like we can group them into three categories:
1)Safe 2)Holding Pattern and 3)Er, um, "Warm"?
Don't take this too literally, but visitors from other planets with a taste for college football wouldn't take too long to figure out that Oklahoma's Bob Stoops and Texas' Mack Brown are quite safe in their jobs. Both have won a national championship. Both saved the programs from some unspeakable dark days. And both are nearing a decade of service (Brown is beginning his 10th season in Austin, Stoops his 9th in Norman).
Among those in a Holding Pattern, a certain tenure pattern emerges as well. The candidates include Iowa State coach Gene Chizik (first year), Colorado coach Dan Hawkins (2nd year), Kansas State coach Ron Prince (2nd year), Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy (3rd year) and Nebraska coach Bill Callahan (4th year). The only outlier here is Texas Tech coach Mike Leach who begins his 8th season in Lubbock this fall. His job is fairly safe, but he's also not writing his next check the way Stoops and Brown are.
That leaves "warm seats" for four Big 12 coaches. They're all beginning either their fifth, sixth or seventh year at their respective schools. Notice the trend? Can you guess who made the list? We're naming names after the jump.
This is the sort of thing that leads to serious comment flaming complete with people calling other people "loosers!!!!" so if we could just clarify: it's not that any of these players are actually bad. They're just not as good as popularly acclaimed to be, either by rave-prone announcers or star-dazed recruitniks or awards-granting committees or All Big Twelve teams. All of these players would start on most teams in the league and said teams would be happy to have them; they just aren't all that with bag of chips and salsa and guacamole and etc etc etc.
Big Frank Okam isn't a bad guy. In fact, he's quite often a hell of a football player. But he suffers from a disease that frustratingly plagues so many defensive tackles: inconsistency. Mix in some Texas-sized hype and you have a guy who, you know, maybe, sorta, well ... is a bit overrated.
The Longhorns had a dominant run defense last year, surrendering 61 yards a game and 2.3 yards/carry. However, former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik recently revealed that Texas had sold out against the run to get those numbers. Ideally a talented front four of Okam, tackles Derek Lokey and Roy Miller and ends Brian Robison and Tim Crowder should have been able to control the line almost by themselves. It sounds like they needed a little help however, which means the big man in the middle wasn't quite living up to expectation.
On the year, Okam had just four tackles for loss among his 38 tackles (not counting the two sacks). He can do better, much much better. Texas' young secondary needs help and if the safeties and linebackers are having to help against the run, people will be pointing some angry fingers at Okam for not dominating the line like he should.
The word "underrated" is pretty subjective. One man's overrated is occasionally another's underrated. The terms are indistinct and subject to personal insights. So what is an underrated football player? For this list we're talking about relatively unsung contributors on great teams, perhaps a player who is "stuck" behind a superstar on the depth chart. Or maybe a really good player who is stuck on a terrible team, or a guy who leads a terrible team, or one outside of the breadth of major television coverage to at least some semblance of mediocrity. There isn't a single right answer. Later this week, Brian Grummell will examine the polar opposite. He'll take a look at the overrated players. Perhaps, you'll find that one of the guys we've pegged as "underrated" list is actually overrated in your mind.
Savage might not exactly be "under the radar," but he definitely doesn't get the respect he deserves. I've rarely seen his name mentioned among the Big 12's elite backs, but I think that will change in 2007. He's a homerun threat that can go the distance every time he touches it, and is especially deadly when cutting back against the pursuit. Savage got off to a slow start, but ultimately put up big numbers during his first year in Stillwater. Two of his better efforts came against prominent Big 12 foes gaining 134 yards against Texas A&M and 117 yards and two scores against Nebraska.
Savage plays in an offensive system that seems primed for great things this season. He'll also be under less pressure to perform with the talent that Mike Gundy has quietly amassed around him. So far the hype seems focused on quarterback Bobby Reid and wide receiver Adarius Bowman, but watch out for Dantrell Savage in 2007.
This is not a "Top Five Heisman Trophy Candidates in the Big 12" list. Instead, we have compiled a list of who we believe are the top five players in the Big 12 entering the 2007 season. Remember, it's just a subjective list. Meant for discussion. I don't need to see comments about how I don't know anything about football, or how I'm just a stupid (name of Big 12 school you don't like here) fan. Enjoy the list.
When deciding on the top spot on this list, my major criteria was which player would I most like to play for my team of rooting interest. Once that groundwork was laid, the choice was obvious. Apart from writing the university's official NCAA appeal, Reggie Smith does everything for Oklahoma. During his career he's played cornerback, safety, wide receiver, and also returns punts and kickoffs. When he's not on the field, the definitive team player can often be spotted gently massaging the ego overwrought muscles of Bob Stoops. He's just that kind of guy. If Oklahoma's quarterback position remains unsettled much longer, I'm not convinced Smith won't get a shot.
In 2006, Smith made 41 tackles, grabbed three interceptions and broke up eight passes on his way to earning All Big-12 honors. He also had a 62-yard punt return for a touchdown and averaged 22.6 yards per kickoff return. The plan is to move Smith back to cornerback fulltime in 2007. It that happens, Big 12 coaches can plan on limiting the passing game to one side of the field. The bottom line is that Reggie Smith is everything fans liked about Charles Woodson circa 1997. Fortunately, Smith also has none of the crap that you despise Woodson for now.
There's no clear threat to the Texas/Oklahoma hegemony atop this conference, so count on another record like last year's at worst. As a bonus, there's no Ohio State on the schedule and Colt McCoy won't be performing his "Bambi's awkward first steps" act against week two foe TCU (see Texas/Ohio State, 2006)
The Sooner must replace steady senior 
Continued progress is the party line in Lincoln. The Huskers have seen their win count jump from 5, to 8 and finally 9 victories during Bill Callahan's tenure. That's no minor feat given the renovation job Callahan faced. Complacency among the previous coaching staff led to poor talent evaluation and a series of modest recruiting classes. Consequently, Callahan inherited a mish-mash of power-option square pegs seeking solace in the round hole of his West Coast Offense. But from the ashes of the option has risen a dynamic, albeit inconsistent offensive attack. Nebraska finished in the Top 20 nationally in both total offense and scoring offense a year ago. The Huskers lost a heartbreaker at home to Texas and fell 17-14 to Auburn in a closely fought Cotton Bowl. Turn those results around and you're likely looking at the Huskers as a preseason Top 10 team this year.
The dregs is a perfect phrase to describe those scrappy but unfortunate teams left at the bottom of the Big 12's 2007 liquid brew. We mean well when talking about these teams, but somebody's gotta finish last and we've come up with a few nominees.
The Huskers will get a chance to catch their breath in week four with a game against Ball State, but the first three weeks of the schedule are pretty brutal. Nebraska opens with Nevada who went 8-5 a year ago and lost 21-20 to Miami (FL) in the MPC Computers Bowl. The following week the Huskers travel to Wake Forest to take on the defending ACC champs at home.
Big Frank Okam isn't a bad guy. In fact, he's quite often a hell of a football player. But he suffers from a disease that frustratingly plagues so many defensive tackles: inconsistency. Mix in some Texas-sized hype and you have a guy who, you know, maybe, sorta, well ... is a bit overrated. 
Savage might not exactly be "under the radar," but he definitely doesn't get the respect he deserves. I've rarely seen his name mentioned among the Big 12's elite backs, but I think that will change in 2007. He's a homerun threat that can go the distance every time he touches it, and is especially deadly when cutting back against the pursuit. Savage got off to a slow start, but ultimately put up big numbers during his first year in Stillwater. Two of his better efforts came against prominent Big 12 foes gaining 134 yards against Texas A&M and 117 yards and two scores against Nebraska.
When deciding on the top spot on this list, my major criteria was which player would I most like to play for my team of rooting interest. Once that groundwork was laid, the choice was obvious. Apart from writing the university's official NCAA appeal, Reggie Smith does everything for Oklahoma. During his career he's played cornerback, safety, wide receiver, and also returns punts and kickoffs. When he's not on the field, the definitive team player can often be spotted gently massaging the 
