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Spring Training Stats: When They Matter, When They Don't

Dan Haren has been awful this spring. Adam Jones is raking, as is Chris Shelton. Michael Bourn has been a completely worthless hitter. Of the above players, two have stat-lines that matter, and two have ones that don't.

You see, judging spring training stat-lines in fantasy baseball can be helpful, but you don't want to get too caught up in it. After all, the games are meaningless. Most established veterans are just going through the motions in attempt to get their body ready for the real season. For them, the stat-lines are meaningless. Thus, I don't care that Haren has sucked thus far. I'd still draft him with confidence.

Let's take a deeper look at a when they matter, when they don't, and why.

Fantasy Felony: Mark Reynolds Is a Little Too Hot Right Now

Mark Reynolds is the current MLB leader in home runs (five) and RBI (12), so he probably deserves some dap. Still, things are getting a bit out of control, no? Recently I have heard a few people say things that seem somewhat overaggressive regarding predictions for Reynolds. Various experts have said that he will hit "40 homers" (heard it on Sportscenter today) and "50 homers" (Matt Williams, via CBSSportsline). Bob Melvin apparently even went so far as to refer to him as a young "Mark McGwire" during batting practice.

Personally, I think it's all a little Gumby-esque (read: stretch, not cheap pizza) for my tastes. And I don't want to be the guy who comes along and tells everyone to ease up. Much less do I want to do something like compare Mark Reynolds to Chris Shelton. Because he's better than that. But I don't think he's going to be 40-50 homers good. Still, that's the type of pub he's getting right now, in this, the second week of the season.

He's absolutely not going to continue on this home run pace (if he does, I'll administer the HGH test myself), which means that his value has peaked right now. Even if he does hit 35 home runs, his average is going to drop significantly (he's at a small-sample-sized .348 right now) as is his OBP (currently .400). Maybe he is "making a jump" this season and will end up with 35 jacks. But by the time you end up moving him, he'll probably have already hit eight of those, which detracts from his value for the future (obviously, right? We all get that, I hope.)

Tigers Bring Back Rogers for Another Year

Kenny RogersWhen Kenny Rogers fired agent Scott Boras, most people figured it was because Boras was shopping his client around the majors when all he really wanted to do was re-sign with the Tigers. Well, most people were correct: the Tigers announced that Rogers signed a one-year deal today. The Tigers had a teleconference announcing the deal, during which Bilfer from the Detroit Tigers Weblog took notes:
Kenny's negotiation process: There was never a lot of change in his position. He wanted to make sure that he represented what was done best for himself and his family. The change in representation had more to do with Rogers intent to stay in Detroit than anything to do with Boras. He was trying to simplify the process so he could communicate directly with the team. If Rogers had decided to become a free agent in the true sense, Boras would still be his agent.
Rogers also revealed there are performance incentives in the contract, although the exact terms of the deal are still unknown. If I had to guess, I'd wager he's making somewhere close to $8 million and $10 million next year, but we'll have to wait to get the official word later.

Chris Shelton Is An Angry Mud Hen

Remember last April when Chris Shelton was tearing up the Majors with his 10 home runs? Remember how reality then smacked him in the face like many a woman you've met in the bar? Well I'm guessing Big Red would rather be smacked in the face again than have to deal with the kick to the groin he just got from the Tigers.


Shelton was one of 11 players the Tigers assigned to their minor league camp Monday morning, and he's not exactly thrilled about it.


"I hit close to .400 this spring," Shelton said. "What more could I possibly do? All I could say is I made this [decision] as tough as I possibly could on them."


The situation is that there just isn't any room for Shelton on the Tigers roster. Marcus Thames is a corner outfielder, and since Omar Infante will have to double as a backup centerfielder, Jim Leyland needed to go with a utility infielder to round out the bench.


Also, when asked about the decision, The Black Lung didn't hesitate to point out that Shelton put himself in this position.


"Truth be known, obviously Shelton wasn't going to continue at the pace he started with the first month [last year]. But if he would've played the way we felt his capability was, we probably wouldn't have Sean Casey, to be honest with you."


Oh no he di'int!


All is not lost for Shelton, though. If Sean Casey were to spend time on the disabled list, Leyland said he'd rather call Shelton up instead of letting Marcus Thames get extended time at first. There's also the fact that Casey is entering the final year of his contract, so Big Red may be coming into camp as the Tigers first baseman next season.


Of course, that's of little solace to him now.


Previously at the Fanhouse:

Stop Asking Jim Leyland About Joel Zumaya

Jim Leyland Is Not Amused

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