In continuing with our three-part series on ADP analysis, today we look at the second method in which average draft position can be utilized to uncover values come draft day -- trend analysis.
This approach involves following a sequence of successive ADP charts over a span of time, usually a couple of months (or anteing up for a premium service that tracks more detailed mock draft data), and following the trends. Trends in ADP are great indicators of who is moving up or down on depth charts, which players have made breakthroughs in camp, and most of all, who got dinged up in camp -- information that can be daunting to follow on a player-by-player basis.
Cut-N-Go is Fantasy FootballFanHouse's daily gathering of links from around the web, covering the goings-on in NFL Training Camp which have an impact on fantasy value.
Keep a close eye on this Saturday's preseason game as Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt expects rookie running back Chris "Beanie" Wells to get some reps against San Diego, but his time to shine appears to be dwindling fast. The Arizona Repbulic reported that Beanie Wells twisted his already sore ankle on Wednesday night at practice. With Tim Hightower moving well ahead Wells as the favorite for the starting job, this could be one of Wells' last chances to make a bid for the starting spot.
The rookie out of Ohio State seemed like a perfect fit to take the reigns in the backfield and raised a lot of fantasy eyebrows as a favorite choice for a 2009 sleeper. Now his ADP is slipping fast and his value as a fantasy threat for the early part of the season appear to be slim to none. Never say never, but this is looking like an uphill battle for Wells.
Let's take a look around the rest of the league to see what other fantasy relevant news is breaking.
2008 Stats: 207 carries for 1,197 yards, 8 touchdowns
Scouting Report: Huge running back and carries incredible power. Almost impossible to bring down with initial hit. Stiff-arm move is the best in the draft. Can pull away from defenders despite his size. Great production in college. Durability issues, especially after a non-contact foot injury in 2008. Receiving almost non-existent.
2009 Outlook: Wells may not be able to hold up as a team's No. 1 option over the course of the season, and he's certainly not a third-down back, but his knack for punishing defenses will make him a worthwhile pick. If he gets 10-15 carries a game all season, he could be a force.
With the draft approaching, we ignore projections and identify the dream scenario for each team in a series we call The Perfect Draft.
In 2008, the New England Patriots became the first team in over 20 years to win 11 regular season games and fail to qualify for the postseason. Considering they lost their franchise player -- Tom Brady -- just about five minutes into the season, forcing them to turn to a quarterback who hadn't started a game in eight years -- Matt Cassel -- an 11-5 campaign isn't all that disappointing.
With Brady back under center in 2009, the Patriots look to be a strong bet to return to the playoffs, especially if they address the one or two holes that remain on the roster.
The LaDainian Tomlinson San Diego Carnival Train has been derailed in recent weeks, if only because there's bound to be significant inactivity in the trade/media rumor front with the Super Bowl and those delinquent Arizona Cardinals fans taking center stage. But LdT, via the ever popular "blog" medium, wants to clear up "some misconceptions."
Chris "Beanie" Wells said recently that he wanted to leave Ohio State as the school's all-time leading rusher. Well, that goal is probably going to have to wait for, well, ever, because he announced today that he is leaving school and entering the 2009 NFL Draft, forgoing his senior season as a Buckeye.
Wells issued a statement Thursday saying the move is in the best interest of his family.
Wells fought nagging injuries much of his career at Ohio State. After missing three full games this past season, he returned to rush for 1,197 yards.
But he saw limited action in the second half of Monday's Fiesta Bowl due to symptoms of a concussion. He finished with 106 yards on 16 carries.
In three seasons at Ohio State, Wells ran for 3,382 yards, fourth best in school history.
So, yeah, he was almost there. But not really. Wells' junior season was certainly less memorable than he would have wanted it to be; he missed the team's biggest game against USC early in the season and, as noted above, was limited in the Fiesta Bowl loss to the Longhorns.
Still, he had a 1,000 yard-plus season, he's reasonably healthy right now, and an injury next year would debilitate any chances of being a first-rounder, something he is most certainly considered right now.
Trusted sources close to the National Football Post have just informed me that Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree, Ohio State running back Beanie Wells and Missouri wide receiver Jeremy Maclin all intend to declare for the 2009 NFL Draft in the very near future.
Now, as you can see, they were correct on Beanie Wells bouncing early. Given that information, I'm going to refrain from using a similar (and somewhat sarcastic) analogy to the one I inked yesterday about their Bradford claim.
Instead, I'm going to point out that both Crabtree and Maclin would be expected top 10-15 selections in the NFL Draft, and now is a pretty good time for them to consider becoming financially set for the rest of their lives.
RIGHT: Brian Hartline, the harbinger of Spartan doom.
Look, I tried to warn you. I told you last week that Michigan State just didn't have enough defense to contain the Buckeyes. The only thing that shocked me about the outcome of that game was how easy it was for Ohio State. Clearly, I failed to consider the possibility that ur-conservative Jim Tressel might start letting Terrelle Pryor throw deep. Clearly, neither did Mark Dantonio, who probably went into his office after the game and knocked all the stuff off his shelves.
Tressel did it the way you're supposed to do it. He used the running abilities of Pryor and Beanie Wells as bait. Once the Spartans were forced to stick close to the line of scrimmage lest they give up another 20-yard (or more) run, Pryor hit Brian Hartline on a 56 yard pass. That marked the official beginning of the "we don't know what to do next" phase for Sparty. Enter fumbles and interceptions; exit, Sparty's hopes of being a dark horse.
The Spartans get to recoup against a doddering Michigan team which once again wasted a good half of football in order to become the latest thing stuck to the bottom of Joe Paterno's shoe. The Buckeyes move on, too, for their second Clash of the Titans remake of the season.
... Wait just a darn minute. I remember this panic. It started last week, snowballed into a 35-3 loss, and ended with the destruction of Lehman Brothers and government takeover of AIG. Or something like that.
In one breath today, OSU coach Jim Tressel said that running back Beanie Wells is improving but he is also out for Saturday's game against Troy and there's no guarantee that he'll play against Minnesota the following week.
Ohhhhhhh. Oh. Those Trojans. The Troy Trojans of Troy (We're From Troy! (But Not That Troy)). Nevermind. Carry on with your lives.
"I'm not sure he'll ever speak to me again (but) I think it's the right thing to do," Tressel said.
Tressel said the decision to not play Wells was his alone after talking the matter over with medical personnel. The coach said he is concerned that letting Wells play might expose him to further risk of injury.
Obviously, Wells wants to play in this game -- plenty of talking heads have mentioned that he is essentially the Buckeyes only hope. (Although it's entirely possible that long term, his absence will help them.)
The weirdest thing, though, is how early the injury status was announced; generally speaking this type of statement would be made later Saturday afternoon so as to keep the Trojans prepared.
Update(kind of): Kirk Herbstreit is reporting on my television that he never saw this coming and he doesn't think Beanie saw it coming either and that "I'm not totally convinced he's actually out." (Half joke.) He is, in fact, actually out.
In continuing with our three-part series on ADP analysis, today we look at the second method in which average draft position can be utilized to uncover values come draft day -- trend analysis.
With the draft approaching, we ignore projections and identify the dream scenario for each team in a series we call 
When the NCAA football season ends, the NFL draft really starts heating up -- 
Every Thursday, 
OH MY GOD HEAD FOR THE HILLS CHRIS "BEANIE WELLS" IS 
