FanHouse Deolis Guerra

Looks like Carlos Gomez wasn't pulled from the Caribbean World Series for no reason. The Mets and Twins have agreed on a deal to send Johan Santana to Queens for four prospects, pending an agreement on a contract extension between the lefty and his new club. The package - Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey - doesn't include prized outfield prospect Fernando Martinez, long believed to be the sticking point in negotiations.

Take your hat off to Omar Minaya for getting this deal done without including Martinez. In a market that had the Twins demandin several top prospects from all suitors, Minaya's handiwork should be applauded. He dealt three pitchers who, while solid prospects, weren't going to help the Mets appreciably in 2008 or 2009 and turned them into the game's best pitcher. Throw in the helpful move from American to National League and the pitcher's paradise that is Shea Stadium and you've got a gem of a deal for the Amazins.

As for the Twins, it's a mixed blessing. They got a five-tool player in Gomez who will replace Torii Hunter in the lineup this summer. But GM Bill Smith didn't get Phil Hughes or any other stud, major league ready pitcher for the rotation. The three ex-Mets project as major leaguers, but none is quite there yet. Coupled with the trade of Matt Garza earlier this offseason and the rehabbing Francisco Liriano, the Twins are looking awfully thin on the mound in the near future.

Yesterday, the word out of New York was that the Yankees found the combination of prospects and hefty new contract too prohibitive a price to pay for Johan Santana. That offered the Mets a glimmer of hope at landing the prized pig of the Hot Stove, but only if they included 19-year old Fernando Martinez in a package with four other prospects.

The quintet - Martinez, outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber - is made up of five of the top seven prospects in the Mets system, according to Baseball America. When you add in a new contract in the neighborhood of $140 million for six years, the Mets would be placing the next half-decade of hopes on Santana's left shoulder. That's a tremendous amount of risk, even for a general manager as aggressive as Omar Minaya, and it's why the team is passing on such a proposal.

The risk of not making the deal is almost as large, however. The Mets are running the risk of letting the window opened by the Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran signings close without winning anything. Yes, they're set to contend again next year but without an ace pitcher, are they any better than we left them in September? Whatever Tom Glavine's foibles, he's left a hole in the rotation that they've only filled with uncertainty. Play for now or play for later, that's the question, and how the Mets proceed will provide the answer.