FanHouse DorellWright

Miami has myriad concerns but only three real problems heading into 2008-09: the point guard position, fitting the team's three starter quality forwards together, and perimeter depth. The Heat remains damned on the PG tip until Mario Chalmers has an epiphany or the trade market ratchets up, and I count myself again the horde which finds the Shawn Marion-Michael Beasley-Udonis Haslem triumvirate more interesting than problematic. But depth ... with only James Jones, Dorell Wright, Daequan Cook and Yakhouba Diawara available behind Dwyane Wade and Marion at the swing positions. That's a little good but a whole lotta bad, at least on offense.

Now Jones is out at least three months after ripping a tendon in his wrist. That ensures Wright or Diawara will get some minutes; in the event of an injury or a Marion trade that doesn't send a quality wing back, this ensures substantial burn for both those guys as well as Cook, who appears to sit on the fringes of the NBA (which is where Diawara rightfully exists). Mention was made during the summer that Shaun Livingston could play some two-guard or small forward, but no one will say when he'll be ready for real NBA action.

Another blow to the bench brigade: Jamaal Magloire will be out until December at the earliest with a broken hand. As Erik Spoelstra resists Forwardpalooza, Mark Blount will be the starting center. Magloire's a zombie, but he's better than Joel Anthony and potentially better than Blount. Alonzo Mourning is working out in some secluded bunker or something, but he doesn't figure to get live until at least January.

This is all to say that Miami could be the shocker we all dream of, but it could also be a really bad team with nothing past Wade and a good forward rotation.

Both the Miami Herald and the South Florida Sun-Sentinel report the Heat have reached agreement on a two-year contract for mystical swingman Dorell Wright, pictured here discussing dinner plans with Pat Riley. Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel indicates Wright will make about $2.9 million this year, and roughly the same in 2009-10.

That's not wild money in any sense of the word ... it's half the NBA average salary. So is Wright half an NBA average player? He can be better than that, though he's barely shown it over the past two seasons. He's now had two fair chances with the Heat: he saw 20 minutes per game in 2006-07 (he did nothing with those minutes) and 25 minutes/game in 2007-08 (he did almost nothing). One would assume he'll have a shot for similar minutes under Erik Spoelstra, though Dwyane Wade's health, Michael Beasley's versatility and Yakhouba Diawara's (yes I said Yakhouba Diawara!) presence could shrink those.

Wright has two key abilities: he's one of the best rebounders under 6'8 in the entire league (he's a better boarder than some 7-foot power forwards) and he blocks an inordinate amount of shots for a glorified two-guard. He's an awfully limited scorer who almost never seems to know what to do with the ball, he has completely abandoned his jumper a la Jason Kidd -- he's basically invisible on offense. It's hard for even bench players to survive in today's NBA with those limitations. It's a scorer's game, and Wright really cannot score.

But if ... if Wright can get a dollop of confidence in his game -- maybe from Spoelstra, who has been on the bench Wright's entire career -- he can turn into an average or slightly below-average scorer. Depending on the Heat's moves, he could be paired with able shooter Udonis Haslem or potential elite scorer Beasley in the second unit. Having a bigger dog there every night could relieve the pressure and get Wright the space he needs. We assume he hits open shots in practice. Transferring that ability to the game is the only way Wright can finally get past the "potential" tag and become an actual NBA player. We wish him luck.

As currently constructed, the Heat don't have a whole lot of room under the salary cap, but they may be able to fill a glaring need for outside shooting by inking James Jones, who hit 43.7% of his shots from long distance last year for the Trail Blazers. From Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel:

With the free-agent signing period to commence at midnight, a five-year offer has been extended to Jones, starting at $4 million for next season. The final three years of the contract would be conditional, to protect the Heat for the 2010 free-agency period.

Jones has yet to commit, but working in the team's favor is the fact that he'd be returning home -- he was born and raised in Miami and spent four years at the University of Miami before being drafted. Winderman doesn't offer up any other info about the last three conditional seasons, but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict those will be team option years.

You'd think by now Pat Riley would be getting used to this losing business, right? And as team president, he might start to adopt a big picture view and appreciate the team's march toward Michael Beasley? Well, it hasn't happened yet. After getting smoked by the Raptors on Wednesday, Riley called out both his team and his coaching performance yet again, but this time Miami fans might want to actually listen. From the Sun-Sentinel:

"Just a lack of effort and a horrible attitude," Riley said after his team fell to 11-47. "The attitude they showed, I should write a check to each season-ticket holder.

"I should write the check and not even them, because I can't get them to play hard."

[...] By now it is clear that the offseason overhaul will be extensive.

"There'll be a day of reckoning," Riley said. "They'll be somewhere else.

"I've got to ferret out the guys who really don't care."

He's obviously not serious, but if Riles were to put his money where his mouth is, what would a refund cost him? The Sun-Sentinel reports the team's single-game gate is about $1 million. With that kind of jack, don't you think Riley might be able to do a little better job? At the very least he'd get creative.

While his "day of reckoning" talk sounds tough, it's possible an "end is near" attitude is exactly what's infecting this team: they're burnt out playing for a dictator coach on a team that obviously has nothing to look forward to but the future. And seriously, of the players healthy and able, only Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion are worth building around. Former first-round picks Dorell Wright (who just went down with a season-ending knee injury) and Daequan Cook are as big of a question mark as they were before the season started, so there's really no telling what this roster looks like in five months.

B-ball, B-Fast is a week-daily look at what happened last night from in the NBA from a fantasy basketball perspective. Come early (9:00 a.m.) and often, or just bookmark it and save yourself the hassle.

Cup of Coffee
Hedo Turkoglu is averaging over 18 points, six boards and four dimes per game this season. That's fairly absurd given where he was drafted in fantasy leagues. It's surprising when his previous his previous career high line reads: 14.9/4.5/3.2. It's even more surprising when you consider that Rashard Lewis just signed. Turns out, instead of Lewis ganking Hedo's time (surely they would start Lewis at the three over Hedo, no offense, right?), well, they're both getting plenty of run, alternating at the three and four. The awkward thing? Hedo's stats (18/6/4) are better than Lewis' (19/5/2.6). Hedo's certainly a sell high -- his value is maxed even if his performance isn't going to drop -- but Dwight Howard's inside presence, and the ability of Lewis, Keith Bogans(if only temporarily) and Jameer Nelson to stretch the floor have made him a legitimate fantasy star.

Hot Cakes
Willie Green was Philly's leading scorer last night (again). He tossed up a twamp spot to go with six rebounds and four assists on 50 plus percent shooting. Consider those last few things to be huge bonuses. He's now averaging 15.5 points per game in December, and shooting at a 58 percent clip. You want to sell high if you can.

Dorell Wright is a freaking tease. One night he's going for 19 points and 17 boards; the next it's all four points and one rebound; then he follows that up with 16/12/4/1/2. Of course, it doesn't hurt that the big games were against the Warriors and Suns, respectively. Wright looks like he's going to keep starting at the three for Miami, so you want to own him, but until he starts developing some consistency, it might be better to use him for daily purposes.

John Salmons continues to start (37 minutes) in the place of Kevin Martin and is the best fantasy replacement for K-Mart over the next month and a half. But Francisco Garcia has seen 30 plus minutes over the last three games - with his instant offense/high octane scoring ability, he's worth using in all leagues with that much court time.

Broken Eggs
Tracy McGrady left Monday's game against Philly with an ankle injury. He was questionable for Tuesday as of this morning, but shallow daily leagues want to grab Bonzi Wells. He's a nice add in any size league though, because he'll be going off anytime T-Mac goes down.

In this day and age, what kind of self-respecting NBA player doesn't know how to do the Soulja Boy? That would be Udonis Haslem, who has no idea what's going on--and who needs a quick lesson from a mascot. I think Dorell Wright knows what's up, but he has some problems with execution. I would expect nothing less of the mysterious Mr. Wright, who can be charitably described as gifted, but not talented. Or would that be talented, not gifted?

This morning, Dan Le Batard of the Miami Herald writes about how the Ricky Davis-Antoine Walker trade helps the Heat more next summer (when Davis' deal comes off the books) than it does for this upcoming campaign. It's a nice contrarian view to take... except it's almost assuredly wrong.

The trade will save Miami $2 million next year (the difference between Walker's contract and that of Mark Blount). Depending on what happens with Dorell Wright next summer (he'll be a restricted free agent), the Heat figure to be about $5 million under the cap. Had they not executed this trade, they'd be $3 million under the cap. These amounts of breathing room are useless in free agency. If you're under the cap, you can't use your salary cap exceptions... such as the mid-level, which is actually close to $6 million. (This is what happened to Orlando this summer when they renounced Darko's cap hold.) The Heat can sign a better free agent using the entire midlevel than it can being $5 million under the cap, in other words. (As properly noted in the comments, the Heat will have their exceptions regardless. The cap room still doesn't help get a good player in free agency, though.)

The rest of the situation is after the jump.

Marc Stein of ESPN is reporting (and Ira Winderman of the Miami Sun-Sentinel confirms) that the Miami Heat are on the verge of re-vamping their roster by sending Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac and Wayne Simien and possibly a future draft pick to the Timberwolves in exchange for Ricky Davis and Mark Blount.

If Pat Riley pulls this off, he'll immediately salvage what had been an extremely disappointing offseason. For a guy set to make almost $19 million over this year and next (with team options totaling $20 million plus the next two years), Walker is a huge disappointment -- in addition to being expensive, he's aging and fat, the latter of which has landed him in Riley's doghouse on multiple occasions.

Walker's attitude is also a bit questionable, though it was kept in check on a roster that included Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal. But on a young team like Minnesota? Yikes. You have to hope Kevin McHale rounds up the troops before Walker arrives and warns everyone not to pay any attention to him. Doleac and Simien are useful depth, I suppose, but their greatest value is the fact that their contracts expire after this year.

NBA FanHouse walks through the Valley of the Most Likely; we shall fear no topic.

I don't know what you currently think of Dorell Wright, but chances are you're not prepared for the kind of season he's about to have. Most of Miami's roster is old or injured, but Wright is a beacon of shining light, a healthy and spry 21-year-old "veteran" who's seen precious little action his first three years in the league.

But this year? With Jason Kapono in Toronto and Antoine Walker in Pat Riley's doghouse, Wright has a legitimate chance to start. The kid can play shooting guard or small forward, and while he won't make anyone forget about Dwyane Wade, he'll be a nice stand-in as the highest-flying member of the Heat until Wade returns from surgery.

And what's even better is, well, there's still plenty of room on the bandwagon. We've been hyping him up for months, but he's since gone on to have an awful, awful preseason, scoring just 5.5 points and shooting just 30% from the field despite playing 24 minutes a game. But still, he gets to the line and plays solid defense, which may be enough in Riley's eyes to play him over Chubs Walker, or at least give him a good deal of minutes off the bench until his shot thaws out.

I had basically considered it a foregone conclusion that Antoine Walker would start at small forward for the Heat this year, but perhaps his starting job was in jeopardy even before he showed up to camp fat. Israel Gutierrez suggests in the Miami Herald that Dorell Wright might actually be the current favorite:

There is no Jason Kapono to steal the starting job from Wright with his league-best three-point shooting. There is no James Posey to snatch 25 minutes away by taking a charge every other possession. Antoine Walker remains an option, but it has become obvious that the 6-9 Walker is better suited confusing opposing power forwards with his unorthodox game. And Penny Hardaway could still prove to be more than serviceable, but at 36, even a healthy Hardaway isn't the dynamic option Wright is.

This could be huge for the Heat. Why? Because Wright, 21, is everything that Walker isn't: he's not slow, he's not a jumpshooter and he's not borderline useless on defense. Instead, Wright is a slashing forward who likes to play above the rim. He hasn't done much in his first three years in the league, but that's more or less to be expected considering he was drafted out of high school.

You know how the Heat sometimes look like Dwyane Wade and a bunch of slow guys who can't keep up? While still completely unproven, Wright has the potential to develop into a running-mate who not only can keep up but also might push Wade for "best athlete on the court" status.

Previously on FanHouse:
Don't Look Now But Miami's Desperate
Dorell Wright: Promise Versus Patience
It's Time for Riley to Free Dorell Wright