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Report: Portland Lands Hedo

Update: Hedo may not be headed to Portland after all -- reports now suggest he ended negotiations abruptly and will sign with the Raptors.

Henry Abbott of TrueHoop is reporting that the Blazers have landed top free agent Hedo Turkoglu for the princely sum of $50 million (or more) over five years. Hedo had been the expected target of Portland's largess before the Magic acquired Vince Carter. That move made this move rather logical from every perspective.

... well, except the perspective that it's unclear exactly why Portland needs a ball-dominant small forward. After all, the Blazers do have one Brandon Roy, eternal All-Star, under contract. And with Roy dominating the ball this season, the Blazers finished with the league's finest offense. In terms of offense, this is a bit like the Lakers adding Ron Artest: sounds good on the surface, but when you look at the details, you get a bit worried.

Hedo Leaves Trail of Fire in Portland

Despite Marcin Gortat's best efforts, magical Hedo Turkoglu has taken the 2009 free agency period by the sensitive bits. Five teams reportedly called Hedo's agent Lon Babby on Wednesday morning, inquiring about or begging for the Turk's services. The Blazers top the list, having dispatched coach Nate McMillan for a Wednesday evening rendezvous in Orlando. But don't count out the Raptors(!), who will reportedly offer Hedo $60 million over five years.

But it ain't all rose petals and champagne amid the Hedo saga. According to ESPN's Chris Sheridan, the Portland courtship of Turkoglu has left one Mr. Rudy Fernandez feeling a bit ... hurt. Hurt to the point he is allegedly attempting to quit the Blazers.

Blazers Chase Hedo as Expected

Jason Quick of the The Oregonian reports Portland bosses Kevin Pritchard and Tom Penn made a play for Orlando free agent Hedo Turkoglu early Wednesday morning, just as Orlando's other major free agent -- Marcin Gortat -- was getting flowers from the Rockets. Two Western contenders pilfering the Kings of the East, how quaint.

Portland is one of two teams (outside of Orlando) that makes perfect sense for Turkoglu from all angles. While the Blazers have a nice collection of small forwards, none offer the ball-handling skill that a team with shooter Steve Blake at point guard requires. Further, though Brandon Roy has shown to be a good leader, there's a real lack of veteran guardianship on the roster. As they say, Hedo has been there, done that.

Big Trades Overshadow NBA Draft

There was a lot of activity in the NBA this week, and we're not just talking about the draft. Some of the NBA's big names and better teams were in on it.

Here's a quick look at the trades that went down and what they mean:

The Deal: Phoenix sends Shaquille O'Neal to Cleveland for Sasha Pavlovic, Ben Wallace, a second-round pick in 2010 and cash.

The Thinking: The Cavaliers get an aging O'Neal, with the hope that he can have a productive year playing alongside LeBron James. The only way this trade is a success is if the Cavaliers are the 2009-10 NBA champions. For the Suns, trading O'Neal means that they are beyond tinkering and are leaning toward turning over the personnel of a team that missed the playoffs last season.

Where Will Hedo Turkoglu Call Home?

With the trade of Vince Carter to Orlando, incumbent wing Hedo Turkoglu -- an unrestricted free agent come July 1 -- seems less likely than ever to remain with the Magic. The Carter deal, which according to ESPN's Chad Ford will send Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and Tony Battie back to New Jersey, adds $2 million to Orlando's 2009-10, putting the team at roughly $65 million in payroll.

Magic bosses had indicated the team would enter luxury tax territory to keep Hedo, who should command a starting salary in excess of $8 million. But Carter changes the calculus. Orlando would be going well over the tax threshold to sign the 30-year-old Turkoglu, and Carter -- a playmaking scorer -- duplicates what Hedo does. So Orlando seems untenable, or at least illogical.

So where will Hedo land?

Why the Magic Will Beat the Lakers

Dwight HowardThere is a reason Magic general manager Otis Smith stayed away from the televised Eastern Conference Champion trophy presentation Saturday after his team beat the Cleveland Cavaliers. It's the same reason he declined to put on the cap or slip into the t-shirt proclaiming his team as champions of the East.

That was never his goal.

"It's like low-hanging fruit,'' he said.

Smith built this Magic team intending to win an NBA title, a goal that may have seemed well out of reach when this season began but a very attainable goal today. After their rocky trip to reach the Finals, the Magic don't feel like underdogs anymore. They are going into Game 1 Thursday confident they can win.

Here is why they will win the NBA title:

Death by 3-Pointer for the Lakers?

If there's one great ignored fact about defense in the NBA, it's how important it is to limit 3-point attempts. We all focus so much on the interior or on fouls that we forget the most basic tenet of committed defense: challenging every shot. The great defensive teams, for the most part, challenge every shot. In some forms, this leads to a low opponent shooting percentage.

But for other great defenses who challenge everything -- San Antonio, Boston, Orlando -- challenging every shot means you dictate the types of shots opponents take. Over the last five NBA seasons, there has been a strong correlation between defensive efficiency and the percentage of two-point jump shots taken by the opponent. In other words, a key cause (and result) of great defense is the prevention of 3s and inside shots. It's not universal, but it's substantial. (Eye-poppingly so.)

The Lakers have a strong, strong defense -- No. 6 in the league this season. But it doesn't fit the "no 3s" mold. At all. In fact, the Lakers defense allows a lot of 3s. Against the Magic in the Finals, that could spell doom.

Cavs Shooting Slump Isn't Just Bad Luck

As the NBA Universe tries to adjust to the fact that the team with the best record in the league with the best player in the league faces a 2-1 deficit that would be 3-0 were it not for The Shot Part 11,000, there are some interesting ideas being thrown around as to how the world will right itself, so to speak.

The common reaction is to look to the Cavaliers and ask, "What can they do to get back in this thing?" But instead of attempting to decipher ways to counter the Magic's matchup advantages, or rotation adjustments, or defensive gambles, instead you hear a lot of "Cleveland's shooters have to start making shots."

As if Orlando has had nothing to say about the Cavs' struggles. Just so you're aware, it's not the Fates that have ordained this slump for the No. 1 seed. It's the same principle that got the Cavs that lofty record. Defense.

RoundCast: Too Many Whistles, FT's

Bloggers knee-jerking on the phone + roundtable style = RoundCast.

Orlando now leads Cleveland 2-1. And while it was a great game in terms of excitement and actual basketball, it was a touch irritating to see 4,000 free throws/per quarter*. Just like it was a touch irritating to see our boy Flopsy try and incite Dwight Howard into a technical foul spree.

But, whatever, the Magic won -- despite a poor game from Hedo Turkoglu -- and the Cavaliers, despite another monster game from LeBron James appear to be in a pretty big hole. Moore gloats while Brett and I discuss whether or not the referees are doing their job, whether Cleveland can salvage this series and what will happen tonight between Denver and Los Angeles.

*approximate

Magic Romp Over Cavs in Sloppy Game

Dwight Howard didn't win this one with his thunderous dunks, or his natural shot-blocking ability, two skills in which he led the NBA this season.

He won it with his free-throw shooting.

Seriously. No kidding.

The Magic took a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference final Sunday night with a 99-89 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, riding the free-throw shooting – yes, free-throw shooting -- of Howard.

Howard, who shot just 59 percent from the line this season, hit 14 of 19 free throws, including eight of 10 in the fourth quarter to preserve a lead the Magic held throughout the second half.

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