FanHouse Jarrad Page

Because the NFL season never ends, we present our 2009 Offseason Roadmaps for front offices to navigate through the summer.

After winning just twice in 2008 and six times in two seasons, the Chiefs have decided to blow up the whole operation and start over. Scott Pioli and Todd Haley have replaced Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards, and the rebuilding process is currently underway.

Conventional wisdom suggests that such turnarounds might take a couple seasons, but after what the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins were able to accomplish, expectations are almost certainly higher -- which means that Kansas City could be just a few personnel moves from returning to the playoffs. The issue, of course. is which personnel moves will give Kansas City the best chance to make a postseason run in '09.

The Chiefs may not have much to show for their efforts in terms of wins and losses, but there is a bright spot: they've had two of their better drafts in recent history, and embattled head coach Herm Edwards had a hand in both.

The Kansas City Star's Adam Teicher writes that Tamba Hali, Jarrad Page and Dwayne Bowe should develop into stars, and the only obvious miss so far was kicker Justin Medlock.

"I've had the chance to watch the two of them together, and they're very much on the same page," said Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt, referring to Edwards and [vice president of player personnel Bill] Kuharich. "It's always important to have your head coach and the guy running your draft on the same page, and I think we've had two very good drafts.

Unfortunately, those guys to this point have been too young to have a tremendous impact. Going into 2008, I would expect that 2006 draft class to have a tremendous impact."

And that's the thing: the Chiefs have had solid drafts recently but it wasn't enough to offset a four-win season in 2007. Hopefully, though, that'll change.

Although the defense is in good shape, it's the offense that raises some concerns. Hopefully, new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey will mitigate some of that, but there's only so much he can do. Ultimately, it'll come down to whether Larry Johnson is healthy enough to play, and perhaps more importantly, if Brodie Croyle will be able change his draft grade from "TBD" to "quality NFL starter."

I spent so much of my time over the past few weeks wrapping up the Chiefs' 2006 season. It's about time that I put the final nail in that coffin. Here is my overview of the good, the bad, and the ugly for the Chiefs last season.

Offensive player of the year:
Larry Johnson. Raise your hand if you're surprised by that choice.

Defensive player of the year:
Tamba Hali. You know what pisses me off about the sports media? They have become so obsessed with fantasy football that they are now blindly choosing award winners by paper statistical achievements. Tamba Hali should have been neck-and-neck with Demeco Ryans for Defensive Rookie of the Year; instead, Hali did not even crack the top 4 in the voting. I absolutely cannot believe there are voters out there who actually think Mark Anderson was a better defensive end than Tamba Hali. First, Hali lines up to two career backup defensive tackles; Anderson lines up with Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson, one of the most lethal tandems in the NFL. Anderson is a pure pass rusher; Hali is an every-down lineman. Anderson's outstanding 12 sacks were only marginally better than Hali's very good 8.5 sacks, but Hali's 58 tackles far surpass Anderson's 28. Tamba, you deserved better than that.

Biggest disappointment
The big uglies up front becoming... just ugly. Jordan Black was better than expected, but he was still lousy. The problem is, the rest of the offensive line was just as bad.

One reason why the Chiefs have struggled to make the playoffs in the last 10 years is because they have drafted relatively poorly. While they have uncovered some gems in the latter rounds, their overall record has been poor, both in terms of short-term and long-term returns.

With all the talk about Herm Edwards changing philosophies, one aspect that has been overlooked is the success he had with this year's draft. As I contemplated doing a series on the Chiefs' recent draft history, I read with great amusement this assessment of the 2006 draft, which basically says the Chiefs would receive no help from the draft class this year.

Oops.

The author, Scott Wright, couldn't have been more wrong in his assessment, and it all starts with the guy pictured above, Jarrad Page. In fairness, Wright had no idea that the Chiefs would sign Ty Law, but this year's draft class turned out to surprise everyone with the impact they made on the 2006 Chiefs. With that in mind, let's review the Chiefs' draft history in this millenium, starting with their 7th round picks. Following each pick is a long-term assessment and short-term grade (based on expectations versus performance).

2006: Jarrad Page

Typically, 7th round picks don't do much and aren't expected to become much. If they can make the team, it's usually as a special teamer. Thus, Page's ascent into a major contributor for the Chiefs is truly an amazing story. Going into the draft, Page was considered a physical safety without exceptional coverage skills or instincts. However, Page turned heads in training camp, and when given opportunities he took full advantage. His pass coverage skills turned out to be excellent, to the point where he was used extensively in obvious pass situations. His coming out party took place at home against Oakland, when he made a huge interception of Aaron Brooks on Oakland's last play of the game and sealed a victory for the Chiefs. Page finished the season with 35 tackles, 1 sack, and 3 interceptions, and is widely expected to displace either Greg Wesley or Sammy Knight as a starting safety next season.

Short-Term Grade: A
Long-Term Expectations: 2007 starter

This week's Arrowhead Awards go to the two players who were expected, before the season started, to lead the Chiefs all year. One has been the force that everyone thought he would be, the other is long overdue.

Another workmanlike game for Larry Johnson means another 150+ yard game and another game with multiple TDs. Herm Edwards has made it clear that he will sink or swim with Johnson, and though Johnson looked early in the season as if he could not be a life preserver, he has carried the team on his back in the last several games.

Trent Green, meanwhile, did not put up big or even average numbers. However, he was not given any opportunities in the first half (a key 3rd down drop by Kris Wilson didn't help). When Mike Solari finally felt comfortable with the fact that Green was not suffering any ill effects from the concussion, the Chiefs opened up the playbook and Green responded. He brought the Chiefs into the red zone on 3 of 4 second-half possessions (an inexplicable, missed 35-yard field goal being the major flaw) and made sharp throws on the game-winning drive. Green looks ready to play an enormously important game against Denver on Thanksgiving night, which is a huge relief for Chiefs' fans.

Jarrad Page also deserves an Honorary Mention. Page played another solid game, but he showed exceptional intelligence for a rookie on the most important play of the game. As he described it to ESPN Radio after the game, Aaron Brooks tried to look him off and cause him to stray out of his zone. Page stayed put, Brooks never saw him when he looked back, and the ball went straight into Page's hands. Terrific play by an impressive rookie.

The Kansas City Chiefs barely squeaked by the Raiders 17-13, capitalizing on a Jarrad Page interception in the end zone to seal the victory.

Granted, the Chiefs found every way to make the game interesting. As seems to be typical of the new Chiefs run by Herm Edwards, the Chiefs had to rely on last minute heroics to win the game. Oh yeah, and that Larry Johnson guy--he's pretty good. But hey, I'll take that any day of the week over a less interesting loss.

A few bright spots:

• Trent Green looked extremely sharp. He was rusty at times, but mostly, he looked extremely sharp. His concussion is not affecting him mentally.
• Kudos to Mike Solari for his effective use of offensive linemen today. I was glad to see him make necessary adjustments that, in my opinion, paid enormous dividends. Playing Welbourn at left guard and Terry at right tackle made an enormous difference.
  
• I have been a huge critic of Kyle Turley, but today he was being used mostly as he should be: as a situational blocker. He really shined in that role.
  

It's time for another edition of Chief Shots. I took last week off because, well, there's only so much irrelevance to write about. Anyway, here's another look at the useless stuff, the petty stuff, and, of course, the ridiculous stuff.

• I hate the Raiders. I might hate the Raiders even more than Randy Moss hates the Raiders. I know it's hard to believe. So, Raider-haters, "Black Hole" haters UNITE! Honk and leave some love.
  
• I'm not full of hate. I also love watching the Raiders lose. I love Marcus Allen. I love watching the Chiefs beat the Raiders.
  
• Oakland vs. KC might be the most under-publicized rivalry in the game. The rivalry dates so far back, that Chief Joseph is rumored to have been the starting quarterback during their first matchup.
• I would not be surprised if you told me today that the part of Andre Featherstone on Necessary Roughness was actually written about Samie Parker.
• The Chiefs have a steep uphill climb. They keep losing their AFC games which, as anyone who understands the crooked playoff formula knows, means that if the Chiefs are in a tiebreak situation for the playoffs, the Chiefs will likely lose that spot.
• Kyle Turley has a gazillion tattoos on his arm. Perhaps he should get one that says "Don't move until the ball is snapped."
  

Nobody flinches when good players fall for the Chiefs. It's amazing how quiet the news was that Derrick Johnson and Greg Wesley would miss this Sunday's Game. Especially for Johnson, who is on pace to rack up a very impressive 100 tackles and 9 sacks. Luckily, the Chiefs feel pretty confident in the depth behind these two players. Jarrad Page has played a lot of snaps this season and should be polished enough to adequately replace Wesley, who is having a surprisingly good season. Johnson will be replaced by Keyaran Fox--not nearly as fast, but he's not a bad player to bring off the bench.

When the Dolphins run the ball
The Chiefs have been somewhat spotty in stopping the run this season; however, the Dolphins should not provide too much of a test for the Chiefs. The Dolphins are deathly afraid of running the ball. Their offensive line simply does not open up holes. The Chiefs will take a big hit on run support by not having Derrick Johnson to flag down the outside runs and Greg Wesley, who has always been a very good run defender.

Keyaran Fox did not seem to get to the outside nearly as fast as Derrick Johnson usually does. Tamba Hali and Jared Allen have been doing a terrific job this season containing the outside run, and they will need to do so again on Sunday. James Reed and Ron Edwards have mostly done a pretty good job all season plugging holes in the interior run defense. The run defense needs to be won in the trenches. The Dolphins' offensive line has been absolutely awful in run support and the Chiefs need to take away the Dolphins' running game early to shy the Dolphins away from the run.

When the Dolphins pass the ball?
Joey Harrington has this Dolphins team playing a little more consistently.

To say that the Chiefs looked horrific on Sunday against the Steelers would be an understatement. Their defense either was exposed or they just had a despicable outing. GIven the Chiefs' defensive successes so far this season, I'll point to the latter. They will certainly need to make a strong statement on Sunday, where they face a Chargers' offense that's very beatable, but potentially very dangerous.

When the Chargers run the ball:
As dangerous as LaDanian Tomlinson is, the Chiefs have had surprising success against him, even in years where their run defense was leaky. Last season, the Chiefs held LT to 69 and 47 yards respectively. The year before that, they held LT to only 46 yards on the ground. LT has yet to post a 100+ yard game on a Gunther Cunningham defense.

That being said, the Chiefs don't look impressive on run defense this season. They've shown holes where there were none last year. Perhaps that's the result of the cover 2 focus the defense has this season, which has been known to show leaks on run defense. LT has been very good in the running game this season for the Chargers, though not particularly outstanding. But this is LT--he can break out on any given Sunday. It is crucial that the Chiefs hold LT in check.