FanHouse Kevin Sampson

This is a continuation of a 2-part series regarding what the Chiefs must do next season to fix their woes on offense. Click here to read Part I.

Whether you like Herm Edwards or not; whether you like Herm's offensive philosophy or not, we have to recognize that the offense needs to change. Even if Dick Vermeil were still head coach, the Chiefs would still need to undergo a massive facelift. Will Shields and Casey Wiegmann have gone from terrific to average due to age. Jordan Black is certainly no Willie Roaf, and Kevin Sampson and Chris Terry are no John Tait. Ronnie Cruz is no Tony Richardson. And Trent Green... just isn't Trent Green anymore.

The writing should have been on the wall the minute we saw Herm's drafting and roster decisions on offense. The Chiefs went with Jeff Webb in the draft, a tall, big receiver--by all indications, a terrible fit for Saunders' Coryell offense. As the 5th receiver, the Chiefs went with another big guy: Chris Hannon, a 6'3", 205 lb. receiver. Lightning fast receiver Craphonso Thorpe was cut for being a "crappy" fit to Herm's new offense. Vermeil favorite Chris Horn was also not brought back into Kansas City.

One reason why the Chiefs have struggled to make the playoffs in the last 10 years is because they have drafted relatively poorly. While they have uncovered some gems in the latter rounds, their overall record has been poor, both in terms of short-term and long-term returns.

With all the talk about Herm Edwards changing philosophies, one aspect that has been overlooked is the success he had with this year's draft. As I contemplated doing a series on the Chiefs' recent draft history, I read with great amusement this assessment of the 2006 draft, which basically says the Chiefs would receive no help from the draft class this year.

Oops.

The author, Scott Wright, couldn't have been more wrong in his assessment, and it all starts with the guy pictured above, Jarrad Page. In fairness, Wright had no idea that the Chiefs would sign Ty Law, but this year's draft class turned out to surprise everyone with the impact they made on the 2006 Chiefs. With that in mind, let's review the Chiefs' draft history in this millenium, starting with their 7th round picks. Following each pick is a long-term assessment and short-term grade (based on expectations versus performance).

2006: Jarrad Page

Typically, 7th round picks don't do much and aren't expected to become much. If they can make the team, it's usually as a special teamer. Thus, Page's ascent into a major contributor for the Chiefs is truly an amazing story. Going into the draft, Page was considered a physical safety without exceptional coverage skills or instincts. However, Page turned heads in training camp, and when given opportunities he took full advantage. His pass coverage skills turned out to be excellent, to the point where he was used extensively in obvious pass situations. His coming out party took place at home against Oakland, when he made a huge interception of Aaron Brooks on Oakland's last play of the game and sealed a victory for the Chiefs. Page finished the season with 35 tackles, 1 sack, and 3 interceptions, and is widely expected to displace either Greg Wesley or Sammy Knight as a starting safety next season.

Short-Term Grade: A
Long-Term Expectations: 2007 starter

I wanted to take the time to respond to a few comments that Herm Edwards is to blame for the Chiefs' recent woes. I think everyone brings up some very interesting points--I just don't happen to agree with them.

First off, let's get one thing clear: a 7-6 record doesn't warrant panic, especially given the adversity this team has seen all year. Dick Vermeil fielded teams with 6, 7, 13, 8, and 10 wins. I expect that the Chiefs will win at least 1 or 2 of their remaining games, which means that Herm's track record is not all that far off from Dick Vermeil's. Keep in mind that that Vermeil had much more talented, injury-free teams during his tenure than Herm has had in 2006.

As for Herm's actual problems: Is this offense too conservative and predictable at times? Without a doubt. Is this offense the same as last year? Definitely not. Are the offensive struggles mostly attributed to Herm Edwards? In my opinion? Not as much as you might think. This is not the same offense we are used to seeing. The offense has always been built around their offensive line.

Kevin Sampson's bio over at KCChiefs.com starts off, "Promising offensive tackle..." We all know this, and yet we cannot voice any opinions as to the accuracy of this statement. Why not? Because the man is perpetually injured.

Sampson joined the Chiefs as a seventh round pick in 2004. He showed enough promise that they kept him on the roster in some way, shape or form throughout the season, though he was active for only six games. After taking over for an injured Jordan Black during the season finale, the buzz was that Sampson played so well, he had already secured the starting job for 2005.

Thus started the jinx. Every time Sampson appears to have secured his starting position, he gets injured. Sampson ended up being active for only 4 games in 2005 and started only 1. During the preseason, Sampson never was able to secure his starting spot because of a bad toe. The punch in the mouth came during their bye week last year, when Sampson suddenly fell ill in New Jersey. That came right after he started his first game. John Welbourn took over, and Sampson watched from the sidelines for the rest of the season.

With Willie Roaf's departure (meaning that Jordan Black would be relied upon more at left tackle than right tackle) and John Welbourn's suspension/retirement, things looked to be falling in place for Sampson again. But a leg injury forced him to the sidelines again, forcing Jordan Black to play right tackle and securing Kyle Turley at left tackle. Sampson finally was healthy enough to start a few games, but another injury to his foot forced the Chiefs to sign Chris Terry. Now, with Welbourn back and Terry playing well last week, the Chiefs seem to have found a comfortable gameplan that does not include Sampson. While he is not irrelevant and can certainly still contribute, Sampson has become more of a bonus than a necessity. One can only hope that he can eventually stay on the field long enough to not be a frequent-rewards member of the injury report.

Click on this link. Tell me what you see.

No, it is not the Chiefs' starting lineup. It is the injury report. Six starters are either out, doubtful, or questionable. Sammy Knight has been upgraded to probable.

It is really quite a list. Brian Waters and Tony Gonzalez are perennial Pro Bowlers. Derrick Johnson is a Pro Bowl-caliber player. Tamba Hali was a sleeper possibility for defensive rookie of the year. Greg Wesley was having his best season in several years. Kevin Sampson... well, he had to be replaced by Kyle Turley.

The Chiefs are still going to be favored against the Raiders, but the game is going to be a lot tougher than it should be. Chris Bober, replacing Waters, was nothing more than a turnstile against the Dolphins. Jason Dunn, replacing Gonzalez, is a fine blocker, but is as much of a downfield threat as Lawrence Tynes is. Keyaron Fox, replacing Johnson, forgot that the most important part of tackling is to actually bring the ballcarrier down. Eric Hicks has not had a sack in about forty years. And, of course, there is Turley, of whom nothing more needs to be said, except that I already did.

I suppose I should take some solace in the fact that all these injuries came when the Chiefs are facing the Raiders. Yet, I cannot help but worry. Only the win against the 49ers was easy; otherwise, the Chiefs have scratched, clawed, and hung on for dear life to win games. The Chiefs absolutely cannot lose this game if they want to keep any hope alive for the playoffs. As Herm Edwards has said all year, "You play to win the game." The only problem is that, well, you need to actually play.

Ever heard of Murphy's Law? The theory states that "Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong."

The 2006 Kansas City Chiefs are a good football team, but they are cursed. CURSED! According to the Palm Beach Post, the Chiefs will now have to play without Tony Gonzalez, who will miss 2-3 weeks with a strained shoulder.

This could be the Chiefs' most devastating injury to date. Gonzalez is a critical blocker for Larry Johnson, he is the main reason for Damon Huard's most recent resurgence, and he draws attention from linebackers and safeties that would normally be focused on LJ. With two upcoming rivalry games against Oakland and Denver, the Chiefs really did not need to lose these two players.

Let's review the Chiefs' woes to date:

• John Welbourn retires suddenly. He claims he wants to become a lawyer; truthfully, we find out he probably needed a law degree to defend himself from a 6-month suspension.
• Pro bowl left tackle Willie Roaf retires on extremely short notice.

The Chiefs have gotten a lot of press this week because of the nature of their division. All of a sudden, everyone is talking about how the AFC West is the toughest division in the league (though AFC West fans already knew that before the season), and how the division could send three teams to the playoffs.

Little has been made, though, of the team itself. While we have been receiving constant updates about Brian Urlacher and Terry Glenn, quietly the Kansas City Star reported that Brian Waters and Derrick Johnson are out for the Miami game, and that Greg Wesley is still a question mark. Kevin Sampson will miss his second consecutive game.

These are some major injuries, and that isn't even taking into account Trent Green or Ronnie Cruz. Maybe it's because those player don't have a lot of fantasy value, or because the Chiefs are facing a very disappointing Miami team, but Waters is the Chiefs' best offensive lineman (in fact, one of the NFL's best linemen), and Derrick Johnson was on pace for a 100+ tackle, possibly 10-sack season. Meanwhile, Wesley has stepped up his play, and his improvement is a big reason why the Chiefs' defense has improved this year. While Sampson isn't a star, Kyle Turley has not shown yet that he is able to overcome his massive weight loss.

Most are favoring the Chiefs to win, largely based on their winning streak, but you wonder how many of the "experts" realize that so many key components will be missing from the game. Miami has struggled enough this year for the Chiefs to still be favored, but they have a lot more to overcome than people may realize.

I haven't been graded on anything for a while, so it makes me feel good to now grade others and let others feel my wrath. The Chiefs have finished half of their games so far. Here is how I would grade them midway through the season.

Quarterbacks:
The Chiefs have two quarterbacks right now that can carry this team. Damon Huard has been razor-sharp, posting a 105.2 QB rating and a stunning 11/1 TD/INT ratio. The only thing holding back their grade is the fact that the passing game is secondary to the running game in Kansas City.
Grade: A-

HalfBacks:
Larry Johnson is not only playing outstanding, he is a top candidate for the NFL MVP. LJ got off to a fairly slow start, for KC running back standards, but he has carried this offense ever since. Michael Bennett was a big addition this year. The Chiefs often over-relied on LJ last season, asking LJ to do well more than he was capable of. The Chiefs were so deathly afraid of yanking him from games that LJ often had to take himself out of games to take a breather. That's no longer the case with Bennett in the rotation. LJ and Bennett are carrying this team. If I could give them a higher score, I would.
Grade: A+

Fullbacks:
Ronnie Cruz did his job fine, but it too often gave us flashbacks of how much the Chiefs missed Tony Richardson.

The Chiefs' offensive line situation just got very interesting. First, a supposedly un-juiced John Welbourn returned to practice on Wednesday. Then, in a very surprising move, the Chiefs signed oft-troubled Chris Terry to the team.

These are interesting moves for an offensive line that is just starting to cohere as a unit. It can't be too much of a coincidence that these moves came at the same exact time as Trent Green's return.

It makes you wonder what chess moves the Chiefs have in mind. The offensive line could see a major shake-up in the coming weeks or, perhaps, it's just a move to prepare the Chiefs for the future. Before Terry's off-the-field problems led to a lengthy absence from football, he was a solid right tackle. Then again, John Welbourn was also a solid right tackle before he juiced himself out of the first half of the 2006 season. But then, Welbourn has been mostly seeing reps at left tackle.

Huh? Who's job is in jeopardy? What are the Chiefs' long-term goals with these moves?

When it rains it pours. The Chiefs can't buy a break this season and it's all happening up front.

• The Chiefs don't re-sign standout blocker Tony Richardson
• Starting right tackle John Welbourn "retires" out of the blue
• Starting pro bowl left tackle Willie Roaf suddenly retires
• The Chiefs lose starting right tackle Kevin Sampson to injury for the season opener
• Trent Green misses half the season with a concussion (forces KC to go into a completely run-centered offense)
• The Chiefs lose Kyle Turley for an extended time because of back problems

Now, it's reported that starting fullback Ronnie Cruz will miss the entire season.

Larry Johnson has to be asking himself what he's done wrong. Perhaps he is a real version of Earl Hickey from the NBC sitcom My Name is Earl. Perhaps LJ should start preparing a similar karma list. Either way, the odds keep stacking up against him.

That means that in the course of one half-year stretch, Larry Johnson has lost two Pro Bowl blockers, two starting left tackles, one starting right tackle, and now two fullbacks, in the process of earning a new role as the Chiefs' lone hope on offense.