FanHouse Larry Johnson

On Second Thought is Matt Snyder's look back at the initial FanHouse staff rankings, which were compiled nearly a month ago. As we all know, fantasy players' value changes frequently, even when no games are being played. Today, we look at running backs.

As teams continue to use two-backs systems, running back has become an increasingly deep and unpredictable position. Thus, you don't have the predictable first two rounds of years past. Injuries and the progress of young backs will shuffle backfields throughout the preseason. As that happens, the fantasy values of the running backs continually shift. Let's take a look.

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Jason Whitlock has reason to be concerned about Matt Cassel. He's the Chiefs new quarterback, doesn't have much in the way of experience, and will make nearly $15 million in 2009. Oh, and it's easy to be skittish when Cassel succeeds the likes of Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen.

Of the three, Thigpen probably has the most potential, but the new regime made it clear that he wasn't in their long-term plans when they traded for Cassel. But that doesn't mean Whitlock is convinced.

Specifically, he's worried that the Chiefs "have little interest in signing Matt Cassel to a long-term contract before the start of the season." There were rumors during draft weekend that the Chiefs gave Cassel a six-year deal ($36 million guaranteed). Untrue, it turned out.

With the draft approaching, we ignore projections and identify the dream scenario for each team in a series we call The Perfect Draft.

Lots of changes this off-season in Kansas City. New GM, new coach, new quarterback and a new defensive scheme. That last change might be the most significant, as the Chiefs need to change a lot on defense and a switch to the 3-4 might help erase the memory of their 2008 failings. The Chiefs were the worst pass-rushing team in the league, recording just 10 sacks all year. (No other team had fewer than 17.) So, if it's to be a 3-4, you have to think they'll need outside linebackers. Which leads us right into...

Good news for law-breaking NFL players: you can accidentally shoot a hole in your leg and still collect your signing bonus. Special Master Stephen Burbank ruled last week that former Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress was due his $1 million bonus because, as the AP reported, money already earned by a player, such as a signing bonus, cannot be forfeited even if the player subsequently gets into trouble.

The extra cash should come in handy for Burress, who can't seem to go more than a week without some sort of legal entanglement. (This assumes, of course, he has any intentions of paying his fines.)

The news is less rosy for Chiefs running back Larry Johnson, however.

All season long Brian Dawkins said that he was hopeful that he'd work out a way to stay with the Eagles. Less than 24 hours into free agency, though, that looks like an impossibility. The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that Dawkins and the Broncos have agreed to terms on a contract that will be formally announced in Denver on Saturday.

Dawkins fills a huge hole for the Broncos. Their defense will be stocked with new, presumably young for the most part, faces. Dawkins gives them an experienced leader who can help the team forge a new defensive identity.

Tony Richardson didn't last long as a free agent, re-signing with the New York Jets shortly after the free agency period began at midnight on Friday.

Richardson inked what is believed to be a one-year deal with $500,000 guaranteed, according to Adam Schefter.

It's pretty incredible, when you think about it, how underrated a guy like Richardson is: he's cleared the way for Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Adrian Peterson and last year, he made Thomas Jones look like an All-Pro. Yet, somehow, he can't pull a monster deal.

I understand that no fullback is going to get some insanely large contract, but at the same time, Richardson has done wonders for the running game on every team he's suited up for, so this deal shouldn't be overlooked in terms of its importance for the Jets' 2009 season.

Each week in the NFL, there are players that impress and players that distress. One week a certain quarterback might toss four touchdowns and run around with his finger in the air while the next he's laying on his back, holding his facemask as the other team returns one of his three interceptions for the game-winning score. With that in mind, here's Studs and Duds.

Here's Week 17 at a glance, where we point out the horses destined for the Kentucky Derby and jeer those headed to the glue factory.

Studs

Michael Bush, RB Oakland (27 carries, 177 yards, 2 TDs) -- This is the other running back in Oakland, and boy did he have a pretty nice coming out party. In his first game with more than 16 carries, Bush rolled a Tampa Bay defense in search of a playoff spot and carried the Raiders to their second consecutive win. Sure, the team went 5-11, but the last two games were something to build on, and Michael looked like a capable backfield option.

Compared to what Lions fans are dealing with, folks in Kansas City and Cincinnati are rooting for a team that is on the right track. Of course, we all know that isn't true, as the Chiefs just capped off a 2-14 season, their worst in franchise history.

They did manage to win two games, but this truly was one of the worst teams in NFL history. Counting last year, they have lost 23 of 25 games. The Chiefs recorded just 10 sacks this season, breaking the record for least sacks in a season (the Colts had 11 in 1982).

What is amazing is that they were sharing the field with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have been one of the worst franchises in the NFL over the past 17 years and were 1-11-1 just three weeks ago. An upset win over the Redskins and wins over the listless Browns and Chiefs gave Cincy a nice three-game winning streak to end the season. It also gives an excuse for owner Mike Brown to stay the course and keep head coach Marvin Lewis.

Man, I hate being wrong. Throughout the entire Sunday Morning Tailgate, I told people not to bother with Tashard Choice, and he ends up compiling 166 total yards against the stout Steelers defense. It doesn't get much tougher on a running back than playing in Pittsburgh, so you'd think it's clear sailing for Choice from here on out.

I, however, will not be so hasty.

The Cowboys were surprised that Marion Barber couldn't play this week, so he won't be out much longer. Plus, the schedule doesn't get any easier. The Giants and Ravens are on the docket. The Cowboys will find much more success throwing the football against those teams at home than they did in Pittsburgh, so the reliance on Choice will go way down -- even if he plays.

If you own Marion Barber and Choice is on the waiver wire, you have to grab him. I'm just not expecting anything even remotely resembling the yardage/touch output again this season, or next, for that matter.

The playoffs are either upon us or one week away in the majority of fantasy football leagues. With this in mind, Fantasy FanHouse is examining what you can expect from the fantasy relevant players on each team.

Denver Broncos

The opposing defenses: vs. KC (25th against pass, 31st against run), @ CAR (12th against pass, 18th against run), BUF (14th against pass, 17th against run)
The skinny: It's usually hit or miss with Jay Cutler and this offense. Just when you think they're a lock to have one of those monster afternoon's they crap out on you. However, with the division title on their taste buds and a mild schedule on the horizon...it should be all systems a go. That's right load up your Bronco's and put your faith in them. No longer a dark horse, the new flavor of the month Peyton Hillis just might be the key factor/ingredient this offense has sorely needed. Stay tuned.
The must-starts: Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Peyton Hillis
The likely start: Tony Sheffler, Matt Prater
The spot-start: None
The no-starts: Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Brandon Stokley, Darrell Jackson
The D/ST: They haven't stopped anyone all season long and so there's no reason to believe they'll start now.