FanHouse Matt Schaub

Your No. 1 QB overall isn't Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. It isn't Drew Brees or early-season hero Matt Schaub either. It's the one and only Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers presents the perfect example of why it's unnecessary to draft a QB in the first two rounds. He was a late-third or early-fourth round pick in most leagues and he's performing just as well as the big boys.

Sure, Brady and Manning offer you peace of mind, but with the RB and WR rankings constantly in flux, it's a much better idea to load up on talent at each of those positions, then snag a QB like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb or Tony Romo a bit later. You could probably win your league with one of these guys and a good group of RBs and WRs. Teams with Manning or Brady and a weaker group of RBs and WRs will likely have more trouble in the playoffs.

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In this past week's fantasy football tailgate (every Sunday from 10:30 AM ET to kickoff, come check it out!), someone asked us what we thought the first round would be for next season's drafts. Since we never want to disappoint, let's check it out. Here is one man's opinion on how the first round will shake out next year in standard scoring formats. This is using what we've seen thus far in 2009, plus what I expect to see the rest of the way. The first pick isn't really a secret, if you've been reading me the past two weeks.

1. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans - As I said, I haven't been secretive about this. He's gonna end up with 2,500 yards from scrimmage and close to 20 touchdowns this year. And he's only getting better.

Maybe Texans coach Gary Kubiak was just doing the standard NFL coach non-answer thing. When asked yesterday about his team having interest in just-released Chiefs malcontent RB Larry Johnson, Kubiak hemmed and hawed, called Johnson "a good player" and said, "We'll take a look at him." And this might mean nothing, of course. Might mean Kubiak really can't say whether his team is interested, because maybe he doesn't want him but the owner does or vice-versa or something like that. If they do end up pursuing the guy, it won't help negotiations much if the coach is out front saying, "Yeah, we really want him." So Kubiak said basically what he's supposed to say, and reading too much into it is probably a mistake.

But regardless of what's really going on behind the scenes, and regardless of the muddle they have going on right now with Ryan Moats playing on running downs and Steve Slaton playing on passing downs or whatever they're trying to with their running backs, I think the Texans ought to take a pass on Larry Johnson. I think they have too much good stuff going on there right now to bring in his kinds of issues.

Here's how it works. We throw some intriguing matchups at the FanHouse staff and ask whether each player will be over or under a certain point total. The result? Fantasy Football Over/Under. Makes sense, right?

Let's review my picks from last week and see how awful I did ...

This weekend's AFC South showdown appeared, at the beginning of the week, to be one of those strength vs. strength matchups. The Colts have the NFL's seventh-ranked pass defense and they have only allowed three passing touchdowns all season (making them the stingiest in the NFL). The Houston Texans are the NFL's third-best passing team and have thrown 16 touchdown passes in eight games.

Things this week, have, uh, changed a bit.

It's been a tough stretch of games for owners of elite quarterbacks, starting with a Week 5 that saw Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler on the sideline and going through last week's off-week for Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. Rest easy, because the rigorous fantasy games featuring backup QBs are over.

This week, only Brett Favre gets a seat on the bench in terms of QBs you'd want to use in normal-sized leagues. Next week, you just have to make it without Matt Schaub. For owners of the seven QBs in the previous paragraph, it's smooth sailing unless an injury strikes.

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Much has been made about the Indianapolis Colts and their 7-0 start. As I pointed out in the power rankings, they are actually 82-21 in the regular season since the beginning of 2003. They are an absolute juggernaut. Thus far this season, we've heard lots of talk about how Peyton Manning looks better than ever and the Colts are firing on all cylinders. This week, we're bound to hear a lot about how the Colts are the biggest test yet for a Houston Texans team looking to visit the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

The funny thing is, in a movement worthy of Bizarro-World status, the Texans are actually the first big test for the Colts.

Owen Daniels, the starting tight end for Houston, left the Texans' game early in the first quarter with a sprained right knee. The Texans managed to win (mostly due to Ryan Moats' beast of a game) but it appears as if the win will be pretty bittersweet, as it's being reported that Daniels is out for the season.

Adam Schefter innocuously (read: no link) dropped the news on Twitter, and the Houston Chronicle has -- kind of -- confirmed it, stating that Daniels will have an MRI on Monday but is "most likely" done for the season.

Sorry, owners of Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer -- you'll have to look elsewhere, and Matt Cassel ain't gonna help. A number of quarterback controversies and injuries are also making like difficult looking for a spot-starter, and the bottom half of this week's set of rankings are pretty ugly.

For some, this might be the right time to execute a trade to bring a quality signal-caller into the fold. There should be teams in your league with two quality QBs, and if you can trade a Palmer or Cassel along with another piece for one of those two QBs, it's going to help you now and in the long run.

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With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

New England (4-2) at Tampa Bay (0-6): Tom Brady threw for six touchdown passes last week, five in one quarter alone. And to be honest, it gets easier for him this week in London against the Bucs. Expect fireworks from the Patriots offense, as Brady is beginning to click with Randy Moss, and he's extremely happy that Wes Welker is back in action.

On defense, the Buccaneers don't have the speed or skill at the cornerback position to defend against Brady and the Patriots' aerial attack. On offense, the Bucs are young and inexperienced -- especially at the quarterback position where Josh Johnson is already looking in the rear-view mirror at competition from Josh Freeman.

Pick: New England