FanHouse NBA Draft

Bloggers knee-jerking on the phone + roundtable style = RoundCast.

With the NBA Draft just a few days away, Matt Moore and Tom Ziller joined me to discuss some of the many ways that we might see things play out on the big night in NYC. And just about every scenario hinges on what the Memphis Grizzlies decide to do with the number two pick.

There's Ricky Rubio and Hasheem Thabeet to consider, or the team could try to trade down to get some more value, while still scooping up someone like Tyreke Evans. We know that the Clippers have the first pick, but for all intents and purposes, the Grizzlies are on the clock.

The deadline for underclassmen to withdraw from the NBA draft came and went Monday at 5PM. Plenty of underclassmen had already made decisions to not even test the waters (Willie Warren, Oklahoma) or previously decided to return (Patrick Patterson, Kentucky). Still, plenty of others never looked back by hiring an agent right away (Earl Clark, Louisville).

The focus is strictly on the players that took it up until this weekend or even right under the wire Monday afternoon. Before getting to the programs that "won" and "lost" with the decisions to stay or go there are two teams that have counter-intuitive situations.

First of all, it's not quite a 'debate', seeing that the age limit been in effect for two drafts now. But with the unexpected news of the Portland Trailblazers suddenly losing Greg Oden for an entire season, this is worth rethinking.

It's interesting how the age limit was supposed to be David Stern and the owners' way to prevent this very thing from happening. By making kids go to college for a year would expose all there is to know about said kids' weaknesses, so as to ease the minds and pockets of the payroll department. Now that Greg Oden happened, is the age limit worth anything?

From the players side of things: no, it's not worth anything because they are being restricted from earning a salary. However, I heard college life could be fun.

On the owners and NBA side of the spectrum: "hypothetically, yes!", and the thought is to protect their franchises from unknown entities, because they want a sure thing. Well, G.O. was their "sure" thing ...

So how will future Drafts turn out in light of Optimus Prime not being able to transform into an immediate NBA player? I'm not too sure really. If you take out the age limit, will more injury prone players be selected? But if you leave the age limit in and draft another Oden-situation (thinking you know the whole story, but ultimately, not), wouldn't you be kicking yourself in the head that you missed out on at least one year from the young stud?

That's California coach Ben Braun and he has good reason to be clapping. His talented big man DeVon Hardin, who was projected as a mid-to-late first round pick in the NBA Draft, took his name out of the draft and will be a Golden Bear again next season.

Hardin, who missed most of last season to injury, will look to help the Bears make it back to the Dance and has a goal to be a Lottery pick next season. The 6-foot-11 junior has never really had the numbers to back up his talent, but his draft workouts had been good and his upside, potential and other trite draft terms were positive.

With Hardin back, along with front court mate Ryan Anderson, Cal could be a contender for like fourth or fifth place in the Pac-10, which will likely be one of the top leagues in the country next season.

Every year, it's part of the debate of underclassmen and the NBA Draft. Not the discussion of should they go into the NBA draft this year or wait, but which players should have entered the draft the year before? They get lauded for returning for another year -- whether it's to "refine their game" or "unfinished business" -- and then get picked apart the following season.

Chris Taft of Pitt was a classic example. Considered a top-5 lottery pick because of his size and potential after a freshman season in 2004. He was an aggressive rebounder and defender, plus a nice scoring touch. Scouts considered him a potential Kevin Garnett-type power forward. He came back for a sophomore season, showing no growth to his game. His work ethic and motor came into question, as Pitt had a disappointing season. Declaring for the draft in 2005, his game was dissected and he slid to late in the 2nd round. A back injury in the summer league essentially ended his career.

(Brief digression: Duke big man Josh McRoberts seems well on his way to being that guy this season. Last year, he was a lottery pick. Now, the mock drafts are putting him somewhere in the mid-first round. By draft day, he could easily be in the second round come June.)

Sophomore guard, Dominic James from Marquette is learning about coming out a year late.

With the news/rumor that really should shock no one that Texas' Kevin Durant will enter the NBA Draft, aside from the fun of watching several NBA teams go into full tank mode, the questions start to move to what next at Texas? While Durant only staying one season at Texas was not unexpected when he signed, there is still some fallout from this decision.

Rick Barnes is clearly one of the best recruiters in college basketball. That isn't going to change. His coaching acumen, however, came under a lot closer scrutiny. With so many people watching Texas because of Durant, Barnes tactics and mis-use of Durant became obvious to a lot of people. That second round exit to USC really brought out the second guessers. It won't affect his status with the Texas Athletic Department, or his ability to parlay interest from other schools for more salary. No coach, though, likes to be considered a mediocre game-day coach.

D.J. Augustin has said he's coming back to school, but the freshman point guard averaged 6.7 assists and over 14 points. The point guard class for this NBA draft has been described as exceptionally weak. With Durant making it known that he's leaving, there's a chance he could at least enter his name in the NBA draft to go through the process and see where he would go. Chad Ford at ESPN.com lists Augustin as the 4th best PG prospect this year (behind Conley, Lawson and Acie Law IV). If Mike Conley, Jr. (Ohio State) and Ty Lawson (UNC) both return to school for another year as reported, he would be the top underclassmen point guard in the draft. Both Durant and Augustin happened to be attending a San Antonio Spurs game together this past week. This becomes a more likely possibility if someone whispers in his ear about how Dominic James' draft stock has taken a hit after returning for his sophomore year.

The Texas recruiting class is a top-20 class with top-10 Center and Power Forward recruits in Gary Clint Johnson and Clint Gary Chapman. It's not clear that Barnes will use the scholarship Durant frees up this year. If Augustin even considers going pro, however, Barnes may have to make a move, as there is no one clearly ready to fill in that spot. It might really motivate Barnes to make a late run at Jai Lucas. Probably the best remaining uncommitted point guard.

With or without Durant and possibly Augustin, Texas will still be a pre-season top-25 team with talent like A.J. Abrams and a strong freshman class -- especially in the front court. Texas has talent and their performance in the Big XII the last few years give them the benefit of the doubt in the pre-season polls.

Previously at Fanhouse:
Report: Kevin Durant Will Declare for NBA Draft Next Week

We all know that Antoine Walker once was a Celtic. And the real headz can think back to that brief memorable period of Gary Payton: The Green Months. Yet despite their different experiences with that proud franchise, they agree on one thing: Greg Oden cannot save this team

Gary Dzen at the Globe's Celtics Blog has their candid words:

"All [Oden's] going to do is bring fans in here," the Miami Heat point guard said in the locker room before tonight's game. "That's it. That's all they want. We aren't talking about no playoffs here. They're not going to the playoffs. If they're sold out that's good. They want to make their money."

"If they get Oden they still ain't going to do [crap], period" said Antoine Walker, sitting just a few feet away.

What I can't tell is whether they're dissing Oden, dissing the Celtics, or disdaining both. They go on to speak on the Celts' youthful personnel, the need for vets, and the pain of Paul Pierce, so the topic is clearly the Celtics franchise. However, discounting the power of a super-center in the threadbare East is strange ... unless you don't believe in said super-center. Actually, maybe all this proves is that NBA players don't buy into the same hype and assumptions that fuel fan, media, and management culture.

I wonder what they would have said about Durant.

Look, kids are allowed to dream. Maybe it's not fair to deny them the hope. But why in the world does the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament (PIT) still exist? Four players who played in Portsmouth last year were taken late in the second round. In 2004, only one player from the PIT was drafted. The idea may be to showcase the players, but it's not like the whole season hasn't already done that.

Chad Ford at ESPN.com has been bagging on Portsmouth for a number of years as a worthless tournament. As he points out, the most popular thing in talking about Portsmouth is discussing who didn't come to it. This year, it's even worse.

And, for the first time in recent memory, a number of the league's top GMs are skipping the event.
...
"It's a waste of time," one prominent NBA GM who passed on Portsmouth said. "The talent isn't there. The timing is wrong. There are no NBA coaches or offenses. The most you can learn from Portsmouth is that a small handful of seniors played well enough to get invited to the real predraft camp in June [actually late May now]. Why not just wait to see them there?"

To complicate matters, the Nike Hoop Summit now takes place the same weekend in Memphis, Tenn. For the NBA GMs who make the trip to Portsmouth, it will be a short one. They'll get on a plane Friday morning and head to Memphis where the Hoop Summit will, in contrast, actually showcase a few players with a legitimate shot at being first-round picks.

Still, the officials for the PIT keep saying next year will be better. The NBA offices say things will be better thanks to new rules that ban individual pre-draft workouts until after the NBA pre-draft camp in late May. That means a compressed schedule and less player workouts.

The rule is in effect this year, but it did nothing to affect the attendance at the PIT. The official spin is that the sports agents are just not fully aware of the impact of the rule, but next year for sure. Uh-huh. Ever hear of the "law of unintended consequences." At least one agent has given it some thought.

Dallas-based agent George Bass said the new rule actually could help those in his profession get a better picture of their clients' status.

"From what I've heard from a couple of NBA teams, they'll be working out fewer players than before because they don't have as many days," Bass said. "And that way, you probably get a better idea of where your guy is going to be drafted because they can't be bringing everybody in now."

Which means, they can direct their efforts towards preparing to send the expected non-drafted players overseas and to European leagues for their paychecks. They can start the process sooner and be ready to present other options to the client when the NBA doesn't come calling. Portsmouth actually loses further relevance.

Interesting Tim Cowlishaw column today about the issue of going pro. We hear all the time that kids have to strike when the iron is hot, lest they get injured or their stock drop. And while that Shaun Livingston gore-fest is still fresh in everyone's mind, it's the latter one that's the bigger concern.

The conventional wisdom is that Joakim Noah hurt his draft prospects this year, and cost himself major cash by not coming out after last year. Cowlishaw, though, begs to differ, claiming that "private workouts would have identified the flaws in Noah's game." This is wishful thinking; every summer, we see flaws glossed over as "room for improvement."

Cowlishaw's better point is that, all in all, draft position doesn't matter all that much. Based on current mocks, Noah seems to have cost himself "a little more than $2 million over four years":

The fifth pick last year – Atlanta's Shelden Williams of Duke – will make about $11.4 million over his first four years. The 10th pick in this year's draft will make about $9.1 million for four years.

In the NBA, players earn their big money after that first contract. That's when they have proven their value at the elite level and get those first maximum contracts.

Obviously, not all lottery picks end up being elite players, and some don't even stick in the league. But his basic premise--that draft picks should probably have a whole career of money making ahead of them--just isn't acknowledged enough. If Noah is a total bust, well, that couple million might have come in handy. Generally, though, a tall guy with energy will almost always be able to grab a contract somewhere with someone. And this tall guy will also be able to say he won back-to-back NCAA championships.

Our own Michael David Smith already dismissed Mike Freeman's "Florida as NBA team" piece, as well he should have. But I'm still hung up on one of Freeman's key points: it's not that Florida's three lottery-bound studs make it NBA-level, but that NBA-level is overrated:

Go ahead and tell me about the gap in ability and athleticism between the NBA and college. Spout the tripe and nonsense about how great the NBA is. The league is not great; it's top heavy. It is the Mavericks, Detroit, Phoenix and San Antonio. Maybe Cleveland because they have LeBron James. Just about the rest of the league these days is middling, average ball at best.

Freeman has Mark Cuban chime in as the voice of reason (!!!), and what Cubes says is probably true. Plus, given the tremendous rate at which NCAA heroes fail in the Association, it's just near-impossible to assume much about college players in the NBA setting.

But if there's anything to be said for Freeman's argument, it has to do with Greg Oden, not Florida. As the age limit rages on, we'll see more and more NBA-ready talent forced to hang out in college. And when Oden plays like he's already starting in the NBA, it's hard not to think that the line between the two levels might gety blurry in the coming years.