Bad Losses: at Hampton, at James Madison, William & Mary in CAA Semis
What We Said Then: "Obviously VCU can make this moot by continuing their dominance of the CAA and winning the auto bid. If they don't, however, they should still make the dance on the strength of their regular season play. The committee likes to reward regular season champions that lap the field and that bodes very well for the Rams."
Other Views: 52nd in RPI (down nine spots), 17th on Basketball State, 77th in Pomeroy Ratings and 61st in Sagarin Ratings (down 12). What We Think Now: By losing to the Tribe on Sunday, they didn't make it a moot point and that means it is the wrong week for Anthony Grant to stop sniffing glue. Their case isn't really much weaker than it was a week ago but they can't strengthen it, either. Teams like Kansas State, Ohio State and Syracuse, on the other hand, have their conference tournaments to bolster arguments that got stronger over the weekend. Unless there are a lot of surprises, I still think they will make the field. The CAA's recent NCAA success and their strong regular season will carry them in.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: University of Alabama-Birmingham Blazers
Record: 21-8 (11-3 C-USA)
Good Wins: Cincinnati, Kentucky, Houston
Bad Losses: at South Florida, at Wichita State, at Marshall, at Southern Miss
Comments: The gaudy win total is negated somewhat by the litany of losses to teams going nowhere this season. Those losses are in turn mitigated by the fact that none of their eight losses were by more than 10 points. The win over Houston makes them the second-best team in the C-USA and the near-miss against Memphis shows they can hang with the very best.
Outlook: I was surprised to see that both Joe Lunardi and the folks at Bracketology 101 have UAB in the tournament right now. Yes, they've done well in conference but that's a mixed blessing given the bottom feeders that make up most of the C-USA. Unless they beat Memphis in the season ender, teams like Dayton, Western Kentucky and Creighton have done just as much or more without getting the theoretical bid. The conference does have the 10th-best RPI in the country, though, and whichever of UAB or Houston plays Memphis in the tourney final will probably nab a second bid.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: Dayton Flyers
Record: 18-9 (6-8 A-10)
Good Wins: at Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Akron
Bad Losses: at Richmond, at George Washington, Duquesne, at La Salle
Comments: The Dayton of 2007 was a national darling. Slayer of Big East dragons, possessor of a top 25 ranking and destined for a battle with Xavier for the top of the conference. The Dayton of 2008 has been injury-riddled, prone to bad losses and can't finish above .500 in the league. How much consideration do you give the former and how much do you excuse the latter because of injury?
Outlook: Below .500 in the A-10 isn't going to impress anyone on the selection committee, even if you take into account time missed by Chris Wright. It doesn't look like they'll get him back, either, which makes it harder to credit them for the time he missed. That means winning their last two games, at St. Bonaventure and home for St. Joe's, to have any chance and, probably, one more to assure themselves of a spot at the table.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: Houston Cougars
Record: 21-7 (10-4 C-USA)
Good Wins: Kentucky
Bad Losses: at East Carolina
Comments: If Houston doesn't go dancing, Tom Penders will spend an awful lot of time thinking about that East Carolina loss. The rest of their schedule, save the Kentucky win, went about as expected and none of their other losses are anything to be embarrassed about but if you're looking for a reason to keep Houston out, you need look no further than that ECU game on Saturday.
Outlook: Take a look at those numbers in the other views column. They share a common thread, they're just outside the top 65 and that's where Houston probably belongs. They still have some time to change things. Beat UCF and UTEP and they'll be in line for a rematch with UAB in the C-USA semis. A win there would make them a compelling choice. Anything short, though, and it's the NIT.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: Massachusetts Minutemen
Record: 19-9 (8-6 A-10)
Good Wins: at Syracuse, at Dayton, Houston, swept Rhode Island
Bad Losses: at Northern Iowa, Fordham, swept by Saint Joseph's
Comments: Like everyone in the A-10 that isn't Xavier, UMass has had moments where they look like a team that could make waves in the tournament and those where the NIT seems like a stretch. The wins over URI and Dayton are big in a league that increasingly looks like a bad bet to land more than two teams in the dance.
Outlook: If UMass can win their final two regular season games, and get some help from Temple, they will finish no worse than tied for second in the A-10. They'd also have six straight wins to close the year, no small effort in what's been one of the tightest conference races in the whole country. Unless they stumble twice more, regular season or A-10 tourney, they should eke out a bid thanks to the overall strength of the conference.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 19-10 (7-7 Big 12) Good Wins: at West Virginia, Arkansas, Gonzaga, at Baylor
Bad Losses: at Colorado, at Nebraska, Stephen F. Austin Comments: Oklahoma has withstood injuries to freshman star Blake Griffin and senior center Longar Longar. The Sooners were 1-3 in Big 12 games where either player was unavailable.
They played an above average non-conference schedule and played real road games. Other Views: They are 30th in RPI, 59th on Basketball State, 35th by the Sagarin Ratings.
Verdict: The Sooners should be in thanks to a good non-conference schedule and performance along with a solid performance in the Big 12. The injuries suffered during the season have to be taken into account which helps their case.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Record: 23-6 (15-3 CAA)
Good Wins: Houston, Maryland, Akron
Bad Losses: Hampton, James Madison
Comments: Taken by themselves, none of those three nonconference wins do much to generate a ton of excitement about VCU. As a group, with a win against Bradley tossed in for good measure, they do a lot to bolster the resume of a team that ran away with the Colonial regular-season title. The Rams finished three games clear of George Mason and UNC-Wilmington and have a gaudy record.
Outlook: Obviously VCU can make this moot by continuing their dominance of the CAA and winning the auto bid. If they don't, however, they should still make the dance on the strength of their regular season play. The committee likes to reward regular season champions that lap the field and that bodes very well for the Rams.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: Illinois State Redbirds
Record: 21-8
Good Wins: Cincinnati, Wright State, Swept Creighton and Southern Illinois
Bad Losses: Eastern Michigan, Northern Iowa Comments: The Redbirds resume was almost exclusively built during conference play. Given the MVC's top-10 status in the nation, that's not a bad thing.
They opened league play with six straight wins and closed with three more, winding up MVC play in second place and, more importantly, with a two game lead on their closest pursuers. The road win at SIU on Saturday was massive, completing a sweep of the third and fourth best teams in conference and clearly positioning ISU as the second-best behind Drake.
Outlook: Those conference sweeps speak to how well they handled business this season. Thing is, they may need a third win against the Salukis to seal their tournament bid. They should meet in the MVC semis and if the Redbirds win there, they should be assured of a trip to the dance. Unless they then lost in the finals to a team that isn't Drake. Then things would be quite dicey indeed.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: West Virginia Mountaineers
Record: 20-9 (9-7 Big East) Good Wins: Marquette, Syracuse
Bad Losses: Cinci (by 23), at Villanova (by 22) Comments: The Mountaineers may have 9 wins in the Big East, but only one came against a team with a winning record in the conference.
Their non-conference had a couple good games that they played close, but ultimately lost. They lost to Tennessee by 2 on a neutral court and went to overtime before losing to Oklahoma. That's been the Mountaineer's this season. Playing good teams well enough to just lose. Other Views: They are 41st in RPI, 52nd on Basketball State, 24th by the Sagarin Ratings.
Verdict: The Mountaineers have no really bad losses -- other than the margin of the loss -- but only one really good win. Nothing really stands out for their record. They play a lot better at home than away.
Last year's NIT champs are heading back unless they can beat Pitt in Morgantown on Monday and win at least one game in the Big East Tournament.
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the NIT or NCAA Tournament.
Team: Kansas State Wildcats
Record: 18-10 (8-6 Big 12) Good Wins: Kansas, Texas A&M
Bad Losses: at Missouri, at Nebraska, George Mason (neutral site), at Xavier (by 26) Comments: The Wildcats have lost 5 of 6 to move from near lock to almost off of the bubble. They are only 2-5 on the road in the Big 12.
They have no quality wins in the non-con schedule, to make up the difference. Credit them for playing a very good non-conference slate, but if you don't win any of them it only shows that you aren't that good. Other Views: They are 43d in RPI, 113th on Basketball State, 33rd by the Sagarin Ratings.
Verdict: Even if they win their final two games, K-State is going to have to win a couple games in the Big 12 Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament. A quick exit in the Big 12 Tournament almost assures a trip to the NIT.
Team: Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the 
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the 
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the 
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the 
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the 
Throughout the season we'll look at bubble teams and assess whether they have a better chance of ending up in the 
