Atlanta Falcons: 1-5 (4th in NFC South) New Orleans Saints: 1-4 (3rd in NFC South)
Last Game:
Giants 31, Falcons 10 Saints 28, Seahawks 17
When the Falcons have the ball: The move to Byron Leftwich from Joey Harrington had less to do with Harrington's play than the overall state of malaise on the Falcons' offense. The team feels the move to Leftwich might provide a spark, but I'm not so sure. Other than a stronger arm, Leftwich doesn't have anything on Harrington. And behind a weak offensive line, the move to Leftwich might be even more detrimental. At least Harrington had some mobility; the downgrade to Leftwich in that department is like going from a moped to James Brown. If Leftwich can remain upright, he might find Roddy White and Michael Jenkins against a Saints' secondary that is susceptible to the big play. But that's pretty much their only hope. The Saints rush defense, bemoaned in the past, is making incredible strides. They've held four straight opponents to under 100 yards.
When the Bucs have the ball: Jeff Garcia hasn't thrown an interception this year. But although the Lions rank 29th in overall defense and 31st in points allowed per game, they're second in interceptions. They'll have to work a little harder this week though, because there's been some smack talk coming from Garcia's former employers. Garcia, like Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson before, seems rejuvenated under Jon Gruden. But it's the rest of the backfield that might feast on the Lions' defense this week. The Lions are allowing 115 yards per game on the ground and seven touchdowns with those scores coming in four out of five games. Michael Bennett will probably be eased in slowly as the new Bucs back, so this should be one large game for Earnest Graham.
Kansas City Chiefs 3-3 (t-1st in AFC West) Oakland Raiders 2-3 (t-3rd in AFC West)
Last Game:
Chiefs 27, Bengals 20 Chargers 28, Raiders 14
When the Chiefs have the ball: They'll try to pound it with Larry Johnson, who had only his second 100 yard game of the season last weekend. LJ has been struggling this year, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. He got stuffed in the second half against the Bengals despite going over the century mark early in the game. The Raiders defense has been weak against the run, giving up around 144 yards per game. Priest Holmes probably won't be active just yet, and backup Michael Bennett was traded to the Bucs, so LJ will see a lot of work.
When the Raiders have the ball: They will go with their bread and butter and hope to run the ball as well. In their two wins, they've averaged over 240 yards on the ground per game. In their three losses, they've averaged only 115 yards rushing. They'll give it to a healthier LaMont Jordan, and potentially feed it to Justin Fargas and Dominic Rhodes, if they have enough carries to go around.
Steelers - Bye Broncos - Bye When the Steelers have the ball: See the title of this post. Willie Parker was leading the NFL in rushing before last week's bye and is fourth overall in yards per game which should make Mike Shanahan and the Broncos quite nervous entering play on Sunday night. No one is worse than the Broncos when it comes to stopping the run and the personnel remains the same woeful lot that it was before the bye. They will be especially vulnerable this week because they have undersized ends, mincemeat in the oversized paws of Marvel Smith and company, and Parker can turn the corner as fast as any back in the league. The emphasis on stopping the run should allow Ben Roethlisberger to find Heath Miller often and to good effect. The Steelers hold all the cards in this matchup.
When the Colts have the Ball: Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai should be back in the lineup, which just gives Peyton Manning a few more targets. Look for Manning to attack the Jaguars' safeties all night -- especially rookie Reggie Nelson. Of course, he can only do that if his line keeps the pass rush off him; the Jags are averaging 3.0 sacks per game. That defense is also allowing only 96.4 rushing yards per game, so Addai might get more touches in the passing game.
When the Jaguars have the Ball: Well, running the ball seemed to work pretty well last time. I have a hunch, though, that the Colts will put 8 or 9 in the box to try and prevent Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor from having a repeat performance. If that's the case, it'll be up to David Garrard to open things up with the pass. We might be seeing Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt trying to jump over guys as often as Jones-Drew tries to run over people.
When the Cardinals have the ball: Look for the Cards to try to get Edgerrin James going, which is easier said than done. Getting Edge in rhythm will allow Arizona to not have to rely on Tim Rattay to make big plays with his arm. So far this season, Washington's run defense has been pretty stout so trying to get this done will be a chore. Rattay has been with the team for under two weeks and will have a tough time going against a Redskins secondary that coulda-shoulda had six interceptions last week in Green Bay. They did a great job against the Lions wicked pass offense a few weeks ago and could do a number here.
When the Jets have the ball: The Bengals haven't been able to stop anyone on the ground ... allowing a 100-yd rusher in each of the last four games. Fantasy football owners with Thomas Jones will like that. With Chad Pennington floundering, expect Jones and Leon Washington to get a lot of carries. Cincy's defense is very banged up. So much so that DL Robert Geathers will be playing strong side linebacker in this game.
When the Patriots have the ball: Excitement. Big plays. A tutorial of how an offense is supposed to look. Tom Brady will look like a great QB ... Randy Moss will look like a great receiver ... and whomever is running the ball will be on some dude's fantasy waiver wire come Tuesday. The Dolphins defense has been bad - orca bad. They haven't stopped anyone from running the football and are paying for it on passing plays. If Cleveland's Derek Anderson can light it up ... what will Brady do?
When the Vikings have the ball: Well, this kid Adrian Peterson is pretty good, eh? He better be again as the Cowboys will blitz, blitz, blitz and blitz QB Tavares Jackson and force him into mistakes. Jackson has problems picking up blitzes and isn't one of the most accurate passers in the league. That means Peterson and Chester Taylor have to be effective moving the ball or this will be a long day.
When the Bills have the ball: Head coach Dick Jauron sure has his plate full this weekend. He'll be responsible for coming up with a gameplan that allows his 31st ranked offense to put points on the board against the Ravens 4th ranked defense. So, how will he go about doing that? Your guess is as good as mine -- I'll be anxious to see his strategy along with everyone else.
One thing the Bills aren't likely to do is get Marshawn Lynch rolling. The Ravens are currently allow only 66.7 yards per game on the ground, and that shows no signs of letting up. Knowing that, Baltimore may focus on Buffalo's passing game, knowing that if they can rattle Trent Edwards, his peaceful afternoon could quickly turn into a nightmare.