FanHouse OffensivePreview

You would think this game is the kind the NFL wants. Two teams fighting for one of the last playoff spots available, playing in one of the great venues in all of sports. Two teams with well-respected head coaches. Two teams that, at one point in the season, many thought would make some noise in the playoffs.

It almost seems like the NFL is giving the Chiefs and Jaguars a bit of a short shrift, doesn't it? There isn't much hoopla surrounding this game, but it should be a really good one. Neither team is going to let up, both teams will be scoreboard-watching, and both teams will be playing with a sense of desperation.

When the Chiefs run the ball

We have all heard it. Larry Johnson is about to set the attempts record for running backs, and no, he is not terribly happy about it. Nonetheless, he will have to do it if the Chiefs are going to score some points. The problem is that it will not be easy. The Jaguars boast one of the finest defensive lines in the league, and the defense goes as the line goes. I am not going to mince words-- the Jaguars' defensive tackles are awesome. They make me jealous. If the Chiefs' defensive tackles could make half the impact that Marcus Stroud and John Henderson make, the Chiefs' defense could be a top 10 defense.

Thus, we have the makings of a terrific matchup. The strength of the Chiefs' offensive line is up the middle. The strength of the Jaguars' defensive line is up the middle. This will be a battle of 300-pound titans, and Johnson will have to win a couple of those battles for the Chiefs to have a chance.

The Chiefs have flip-flopped in their last two games. Two weeks ago, the defense lost the game for them in Cleveland. Last week, the offense lost the game for them at home against Baltimore. The Chiefs will need to be stellar in all three phases of the game to beat San Diego on their home turf.

When the Chiefs run the ball

No blame goes to Larry Johnson, however. He has continued his solid pace and takes aim at the rushing title. LJ, despite all his carries, appears to be getting stronger as the year goes on. While he was not as consistent last week, he hammered away, eventually breaking off a 47-yard run. Johnson may have to run for 150+ this week if the Chiefs are to keep pace with the Chargers. In their previous meeting, LJ ran for 132, but it still took a last-minute Lawrence Tynes field goal to win the game. On the road, LJ will have to produce more than that. It is possible against a San Diego defense that looks strong on paper, but still tends to give up a lot of yards and points.

When the Chiefs pass the ball

The thorn in the Chiefs' side last week was the passing game. When Trent Green wasn't turning the ball over, he was getting harassed throughout the game. Neither of the Chiefs' QBs, Green or Damon Huard, performs very well under pressure, so the key will be stopping Shawne Merriman. Easier said than done. Merriman has been a beast every game he has played, and the focus on him gives players like Shaun Phillips more open lanes to the quarterback than they have any right to expect. Expect Kris Wilson to play a big role, either as a second blocker against Merriman, or on dump passes when Green gets pressured.

Tony Gonzalez will also need a big game in another matchup against one of the best tight ends in the league. He will find himself matched up often against former Chief Donnie Edwards, who remains one of the best middle linebackers in the league. If the Chiefs can get the Chargers to focus on Gonzalez, that should open up opportunities for Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker against a secondary that probably remains the weakness of the Chargers' defense.

Conclusion

It seems that every game is a must-win for the Chiefs, but after losing the last two, this really probably is it. If they beat the Chargers, people will start taking them seriously again. If they lose, then they are really pushing their luck. The Chargers are still playing for home-field advantage, so they will not be taking it easy. That's bad news for the Chiefs.

Prediction: Chargers 30, Chiefs 21

As Jon mentioned earlier, today's game against the Browns is the very definition of a trap game. The biggest trap for the Chiefs may come on offense, however. Although the Chiefs are on a roll, the offense has not been particularly impressive. Ever since looking unstoppable against St. Louis on November 4th, the Chiefs have scored 10, 17, and 19 points. Herm Edwards may like this style of play, because the Chiefs have at least been running the ball very effectively, but Chiefs' fans sure don't like being so nervous throughout the game.

Look for Tony Gonzalez to be the key today. His shoulder appears to be healthy, and Trent Green needs to get back on the same page as Gonzalez as the Chiefs make their playoff push.

When the Chiefs run the ball

I will fess up to something. Last night, I had a dream that the Chiefs struggled in the first half, trailing 13-3. Throughout the half, they tried to establish the passing game and get Michael Bennett more involved. Knowing that they could not lose this game, the Chiefs turned back to Larry Johnson, who ended up carrying the ball 42 times, and they won 37-13.

The Chiefs would like to avoid doing that, because Johnson has carried the ball far more than any running back this year. Still, the temptation may be too great to avoid another 30-carry day. Cleveland has not been adept at stopping the run (132.5 ypg, 4.5 ypc), and with Cleveland possessing a relatively strong pass defense, Edwards and Mike Solari may feel that they have no choice but to keep the unstoppable train moving. The Browns' defensive line is beat up (Orpheus Roye is doubtful with a knee injury) and the linebackers have not provided great support in the run. I have been saying this every week, and so has Herm Edwards, but we may actually see Michael Bennett get more carries today. Do not be surprised if Johnson has 30 carries and Bennett has 10.

If you're reading this now, you better either be ready to run to the table at a moment's notice, or have already eaten a very, very early dinner. It does not get much better than Chiefs vs. Broncos, and with so much at stake tonight, even a terrific Thanksgiving dinner is no justification for missing a second of tonight's game.

When the Chiefs run the ball:

Everybody knows Larry Johnson is going to run the ball, and he is going to run the ball a lot. Last time these teams faced off, LJ carried the ball 27 times for 126 yards. However, with Damon Huard making his first start since Columbus discovered America, the Broncos knew that LJ would run the ball in almost every situation. Although LJ still ran effectively, the Broncos were mostly able to limit long gains and stop him on crucial third-and-short situations.

This time, the Chiefs have Trent Green back, and the Broncos saw that Green still has his accuracy and quick reads. They will not be able to stack up against the run quite as much, giving LJ some more breathing space. The Chiefs will also be boosted by the return of Brian Waters, who we may see rotate in and out with Chris Bober. Bober rotated with John Welbourn last week, and both played reasonably well, but Waters simply adds a whole new dimension.

The Chiefs' offense comes into the game on quite a roll. Ever since mustering up next to nothing against Pittsburgh, the Chiefs have averaged 32 points a game. Through the efficiency of Damon Huard and the relentlessness of Larry Johnson, the offense looks like it is on the same kind of roll it was on around this point last season.

The Dolphins' defense came to life last week against the Chicago Bears. The defense forced turnovers, was in the backfield far more often than the Bears wanted to see, and created scoring opportunities for their offense.

When the Chiefs run the ball

It has never been a secret that Herm Edwards wants Larry Johnson to run the ball, and to run it a lot. Mike Solari struggled with that notion at first, unsure of when to give LJ the ball, but knowing that he needed to get it. In recent weeks, Solari has not struggled with that notion at all, and LJ has responded with 460 yards in his last 3 games. Credit the offensive line-- much like last year, the big guys started off slowly, but became a dominant unit by midseason. The loss of Brian Waters could affect Johnson's ability to run up the middle somewhat, but he has also become extremely adept at waiting for the blocks to develop. With veteran Chris Bober taking over for Waters, Johnson can have that same confidence in letting the blocks develop.

Miami's defense has actually exceeded expectations this year. They are not the elite unit they were several years ago, but they have played solid, if unspectacular, defense in six of their eight games. Part of it is that their defensive line has come together nicely. Keith Traylor and Dan Wilkinson take up a lot of room and clog up the middle, allowing the linebackers to roam a bit more freely. Although Miami gives up over 100 yards rushing per game, Larry Johnson will have to earn his yards this week.