The playoff scenarios get a little bit clearer, but what's remarkable with two weeks to play is how a 10-6 record may mean very little this year. Usually 10-6 is enough to wrap up a playoff spot, and it is this year if you play in a weak division. But if you're aiming for a wild-card spot, 10-6 might leave you sitting at home.
But while scenarios are clearer this week than last week, it's still pretty complicated, especially in the wild-card races, where four 9-5 AFC teams and three 9-5 wild-card contenders in the NFC ensure that there are plenty of tiebreakers to check out.
Probably the most surprising thing that jumped out when running through this week's scenarios is how the Giants could go from a sure-fire No. 1 seed to playing next week to stay out of the first week of the postseason if they lose this week. And Minnesota has gone from a likely January vacation to a shot at a first-round bye.
Before we know it, the NFL regular season is going to be done. Three more weeks and there will be no scenarios to map out and no far-fetched scenarios to think through.
But for now, the Jets' collapse and the Cowboys', Bucs', and Falcons' losses make for a very jumbled playoff picture.
Here's the short-hand version, with a chart to help.
Every Tuesday we look at how the playoff race is shaping up with a focus on the tiebreakers and the team's remaining schedules. Here are previous Predicting The Playoffs.
Four weeks to go in the season, and we're starting to see some parts of the playoff race clear up, while some division races are actually muddier than they were last week.
Unless some absolutely unexpected upsets happen, there are five teams that are already in. The Titans (11-1), Colts (8-4), Broncos (7-5), Giants (11-1) and Cardinals (7-5) would all have to fall apart to miss the playoffs. The Steelers' (9-3) big win over the Patriots also puts them in very good shape, but their remaining schedule (Cowboys, Ravens, Titans and Browns) means it's not possible to pencil them in yet.
But thanks to the Jets' loss to the Broncos, and the Falcons', Panthers' and Bucs' wins, the AFC East and NFC South races are tighter than ever. And while the general consensus for months has been that the NFC East could put three teams into the playoffs, it now looks like the NFC South is a better bet to snag both wild card spots.
This isn't a good year to try to limp into the playoffs.
In most years, a 9-7 team has a very solid chance of making it to the playoffs. Since 2000, at least one team with a 9-7 or worse record has made the playoffs in five of the eight seasons. But this year, with four AFC and four NFC teams that are not leading their divisions sitting at 7-4 or better, it looks likely that 9-7 will not be enough to earn a wild card spot. To get in with a mediocre record, you need to be lucky enough to play in the AFC West.
So 5-5-1 Philly? The Eagles? Say sayonara. Not only did they get spit out by the Ravens and Andy Reid sparked a quarterback controversy by benching Donovan McNabb, but they have only one gimmee (a home game against Cleveland) left on the schedule. With the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins to play, the Eagles will help determine who wins the NFC East, but it won't be them. The Dolphins, Ravens, Patriots and Bills are all sitting at 6-5 or better, but it's likely that three of those four will be home for the playoffs, and even an 8-3 team like the Steelers can't be assured that its playoff ticket is waiting at will call.
But with five weeks left in the season, things are starting to clear up. Obviously it's too soon to feel very confident about what 12 teams will make it, but looking at everyone's upcoming schedule, here's a prediction as to how the playoffs will shape up. Now after some upsets over the next week, there will probably be a change or two next week, but this prediction was made by looking at each team's final five games on the schedule.
With six weeks left in the season, there are still 21 teams who still have at least a slim chance of a playoff spot. It's way too early to pick which six teams will make it from both conferences (and if I knew for sure, it would make sense to hightail it to Vegas), but if you look at the remaining schedules for each of the playoff contenders, it quickly becomes clear which teams should make it and which team's fans have reasons to be upset, even if they don't know it yet.
So every week, we'll take a look at how the playoffs are shaping up. You'll see a lot of places list remaining strength of schedules as a percentage, and you'll see them here too, but that's only part of the story. A team that has the Titans (10-0), 49ers (3-7) and Raiders (2-8) on the schedule will rank as having an equally tough schedule when compared to facing the Vikings (5-5), Packers (5-5) and Bears (5-5). But given a choice, I'd much rather my team face the first schedule with two games that are likely wins. So we'll also look at how many games each team has left against winning teams and losing teams.
Every week we look at all the playoff scenarios with our Predicting The Playoffs feature.
Before we know it, the NFL regular season is going to be done. Three more weeks and there will be no scenarios to map out and no far-fetched scenarios to think through.
Every Tuesday we look at how the playoff race is shaping up with a focus on the tiebreakers and the team's remaining schedules. Here are previous 
This isn't a good year to try to limp into the playoffs.
With six weeks left in the season, there are still 21 teams who still have at least a slim chance of a playoff spot. It's way too early to pick which six teams will make it from both conferences (and if I knew for sure, it would make sense to hightail it to Vegas), but if you look at the remaining schedules for each of the playoff contenders, it quickly becomes clear which teams should make it and which team's fans have reasons to be upset, even if they don't know it yet.
