FanHouse ProvidenceFriars

Chalk ruled the day. The teams having a bye all advanced. Sandwiched between some reasonably competitive games were a couple games that never had the outcome in doubt.

DePaul spent most of the game looking like they were going to take care of any bubble talk in the Big East by putting Providence out of the Big East Tournament (BET). Ultimately, Providence managed to play some defense while DePaul maintained their stance on no defense if at all possible.

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The biggest loser of the first game of the Big East Tournament (BET) was not Cincy. It was Providence. The Friars are a fringe bubble team. They need more than simply a deep run in the BET, they need quality wins to boost their computer numbers. Providence now gets DePaul and their 200+ RPI number tomorrow. Even if they win, they get little to show for it. On top of that, Providence swept Cincinnati. That Cincinnati loss to DePaul further drives down the value of those wins.

The only other winners are sportswriters who like DePaul coach Jerry Wainwright. Wainwright is popular because he's a good quote and media friendly. Now they can claim he is making progress and should get another year.

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Long ago, somewhere around the time you broke your first New Year's resolution in a flurry of Haagen-Dazz and Oreos, dangerous stopped being an adequate word to describe college basketball's pole position.

It was senior night at the Dunkin' Donuts Center for the Providence Friars. The Friars' bubble had seemingly been burst by their home loss to Notre Dame last Saturday, which left them at 16-11. Yet somehow that loss proved to be the perfect mix for the latest No. 1 upset in college basketball's skittish season as Providence shocked Pitt Tuesday.

It was the first time Providence had beaten a top-ranked team since 1976.

So just what the heck happened?

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Nothing like having two defensively challenged teams facing each other to provide entertaining -- if one-dimensional -- basketball. Notre Dame and Providence offered just that as the Fighting Irish got only their second Big East road win, 103-84.

Both teams were looking for a big win to get them into the bubble argument. Providence may be over .500 in the Big East, but they have just three wins against teams in the top half of the conference. Notre Dame lost a lot in a brutal Big East stretch. They especially show incompetence on the road, so they need anything away from South Bend to help their case.

Providence has a legit gripe as Weyinmi Efejuku drove to the basket down 2 points with under 10 seconds. Darryl Watkins (I think) swiped at the ball as he went by and instead put his hands over and on Efejuku's eyes and face as Efejuku went up. Somehow, there was a "no call" on that. Apparently, Efejuku should have snapped his neck back or something. Syracuse got the rebound and the immediate foul.

Syracuse hung on for the 71-67 win.

Providence was quite literally carried by Senior Center Herbert Hill who shot 13-15 for 29 points and had 12 rebounds in his final home game. Sharaud Curry (6-19, 14 points), Geoff McDermott (1-7, 4 points) and Efejuku (2-15, 8 points) gave very little help with 9-41 shooting. That lack of help, especially with a putrid 4-21 shooting cost the Friars the chance.

Syracuse was led by a big game from guard Andy Rautins, who has been finding his stroke in the last couple weeks. He shot 7-12 (5-9 on 3s) for 19 points. Demetris Nichols added 18 points, but most importantly a deep 3 with under a minute to break the 65-65 tie that proved to be the game winner.

Neither team shot particularly well in this game, but Providence was so bad shooting 3s in the game. Almost like payback. WVU shot horribly on 3s against Providence earlier in the week to give the Friars a win, but this time the Friars poor 3-point shooting cost them.

The loss essentially puts the Friars out of contention for the NCAA Tournament. Their RPI before the home loss was #64. This finishes it.

For Syracuse, this keeps them firmly on the bubble. They get to 20-8, 9-5 in the Big East. They really need to beat either Villanova or Georgetown (their final 2 games) to really get closer to in than "last team out."

After missing a big opportunity at Notre Dame last week and nearly blowing it against St. John's, Providence finally came up with the big win. The Mountaineers -- who have not won a game outside of West Virginia or New Jersey -- once more lose on the road. Providence gets a boost with the 64-61 victory.

Credit Providence Coach Tim Welch for recognizing how much this game mattered. He all but eliminated his bench for this game. Only Brian McKenzie came in to give Herbert Hill or Jonathan Kale a blow. Sharaud Curry and Geoff McDermott both played 40 minutes. Weyinmi Efejuku gave 37 minutes and was the difference in the game. Efejuku went for 24 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.

For West Virginia, as usual in a loss, it was missing 3-point shots. The quantity of attempted shots, though, was disturbing. They took an absurd 41 attempts and made only 9. They only attempted 23 shots from inside the arc.

Taking that many outside shots also aided Providence, which only had McDermott in foul trouble with 4 fouls in the game. That allowed all of the starters to play as much, and not have to go to the bench. It puts Providence in a good position to at least get to 9-7 in the Big East (they are now 7-6 with games against Syracuse, @ USF and @ St. John's). They will still need to win at least two games in the Big East Tournament, but they have a shot.

West Virginia, which would have solidified it's Tournament status moves back to the bubble -- still in, but on the bubble again. Their non-con SOS is #271 and they still haven't won a road game against a team with a record above .500.

They tried. They nearly blew the game to St. John's. They were down by two at the half at home. Weyinmi Efejuku led the Friars to the win with 22 points as this game was played inside the whole time. Both teams shot poorly from outside but really did well once they went into the post or on the penetration; and at the free throw line.

If they had lost, the only way Providence was going to the NCAA Tournament would have been with a 4-games in 4-days win in the Big East Tournament. As it stands, they still need a couple wins in the BET. St. John's is just struggling to get to the BET and constitutes by any measure a bad team for consideration by the NCAA Tournament committee.

They are still precariously balanced on the edge of the bubble with their 16-9 record (6-6 in the Big East) after a 71-66 win. Still they can continue to have a chance.

If Notre Dame scores less than 70 points, they are 2-5. Notre Dame, however, does very well when they go over that number. Tonight, they went to 17-1 when scoring 70 points or more with an 81-78 win over Providence.

Both teams shot over 50%, but Providence's hot shooting came in the first half while Notre Dame was consistent in both halves. Providence had a nearly 6 minute scoreless stretch in the second half that did them in.

It also helped that ND had 19 more free throw attempts than the Friars. This, despite only 4 less fouls being called on ND then Providence. The Irish were not more aggressive than Providence going to the basket. It's just that Providence was less effective at defending inside without fouling. Colin Falls, especially, was very good at drawing the contact for the Irish to help make up for a rare poor shooting night for him.

This was a must win for both teams with regards to their NCAA Tournament hopes. Both teams are on the bubble and in the mid 50s in RPI. Providence now slips under .500 in Big East games with 5 left (and some very winnable ones), but they need wins that will help their numbers more than simply wins and losses. This would have been big as a road that the Friars are noticeably lacking and for quality.

Notre Dame held serve at home -- where they are unbeaten (16-0) this year -- and pushes their conference record up to 7-5 with 2 home games (DePaul and Marquette) remaining and 2 very winnable road games (@ Cinci and @ Rutgers). The Irish should have no excuse not to get to 10 conference wins.

... But not enough.

If you follow Ken Pomeroy's "Game Plan," then you know that there are key stats that can correlate strongly for a team to get a win. For both Pitt and Providence, the strong confidence comes from having better offensive rebounding numbers; and having a better effective field goal % (eFG%).

In this game, the eFG% was almost a wash: Pitt -- 50.8%; Providence -- 50.0%. On the rebounding, it was a clear advantage for Providence 41-33 overall and 16-11 on the offensive glass for the Friars.

Two things negated that advantage on the boards for Providence. Pitt only had 10 turnovers to Providence's 16; and Providence couldn't make free throws. The latter is not a common occurrence for Pitt. To play a team that shoots free throws worse than they do. Providence was one of those teams as they shot only 7-16 at the charity stripe.

That was a huge difference as Pitt had to come back to win 74-68. It was an important win for Pitt as they stayed a game in front of Georgetown in the Big East and it was a game they won on a definite off-night.