FanHouse Randall Gay

Training camps have wrapped up, the NFL season is right around the corner, and it's still hot as sin outside. But instead of cooling you off with a warm island song, FanHouse break out ye old heat check for our 2009 NFL Season Previews. We'll rate each club in 5 categories on a scale of 1 to 10, high score wins.

Though 2006 was arguably the best season in New Orleans Saints history, the campaign was only the beginning of this streak of NFL competitive relevance in the Crescent City. Despite steps backwards in 2007 and 2008, the team has quietly been adding front-end talent and admirable depth since that NFC Championship appearance against the Bears. Now, as Drew Brees put it, "...we're at this stage in our careers where this is kind of our prime. ... So this is our window of opportunity. This is our chance to walk together forever, to go down in history together." After over 40 years and just two playoff wins, is this the year the Saints finally break through?

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With the draft approaching, we ignore projections and identify the dream scenario for each team in a series we call The Perfect Draft.

The Saints again attempted to shore up ailing aspects of their team in free agency. Some say this is to give them flexibility in the draft. This is true, but it also makes it hard for other teams to guess what they might do with their No. 14 overall pick. Don't overlook that benefit.

While the signings made were in an effort to improve the team, not every signee is considered the solution within the team's headquarters, so some positions could still benefit from a high draft choice. And with only four picks in this year's draft, New Orleans needs to make that first-rounder count in a big way.

Although the Titans and the Bengals cleaned up more than anyone else when the NFL announced their compensatory picks for next month's draft, the Patriots are the team that appear set to dominate the draft.

New England already had nine picks, including two extra second-round picks picked up in trades. They added an extra third rounder, an extra fifth and an extra sixth after losing Asante Samuel, Donte Stallworth and Randall Gay. While they can't trade the compensatory picks, New England has the trade ammunition now to move up or down to target whatever players they want.

The Titans and Bengals were the only two teams to land four compensatory picks. Tennessee picked up a fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh while Cincinnati received a third, sixth and two sevenths.

The NFL has never released the formula that it uses to determine compensatory picks, but it hs something to do with the player's new salary, how much he plays and his productivity. In the case of Pro Bowlers like Samuel that makes a lot of sense, but it doesn't explain how solid but unspectacular Justin Smith (who the Bengals lost) also was worth a third-round pick.

As the debate rages on as to whether or not the Patriots dynasty is coming to an end, we're quickly beginning to realize that the loss of defensive back Asante Samuel has put a substantial dent in the team's pass defense. Currently, the Patriots are near the bottom of the NFL in terms of opponents' completion percentage, yards per pass attempt and passing touchdowns allowed, due in large part to guys like Deltha O'Neal getting abused on national TV.

Jim Donaldson of the Providence Journal writes today about how the Patriots are currently paying the price for letting Samuel get away.

The Eagles signed Samuel to a six-year, free-agent contract worth more than $55 million, of which $20 million is guaranteed. Guaranteed, Patriots owner Robert Kraft would think that's a bargain now, if only the Pats could have retained Samuel and still remained under the cap. There's no question that the Pats miss him. Not as much as they miss injured quarterback Tom Brady, mind you. But quite a bit -- as was obvious Sunday night in San Diego, when Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers repeatedly burned New England's overmatched secondary with deep passes.

So far in free agency, the Patriots have lost Asante Samuel, a top-5 NFL cornerback, and nickel back Randall Gay. The also let safety Eugene Wilson walk, and need to find a replacement for 35-year-old Rodney Harrison. So what does New England do? Well, to date, they've signed Jason Webster, Tank Williams and Lewis Sanders to help fill that gaping hole in the secondary.

I fully expect one -- or all -- of these stiffs to not be on the opening-day roster, but in the meantime they help fill out the depth chart.

More to the point, though, is the Patriots' glaring need in the defensive backfield. (Yes, there are also issues at linebacker, but having Ellis Hobbs as your shutdown corner trumps the possibility of fossils Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau returning for one more season.)

New England couldn't fix the problems in free agency since the Seahawks and Raiders franchised the two best available options, Marcus Trufant and Nnandi Asomugha, and Samuel was set to walk unless he got "Nate Clements money." (I suppose you can make a case that the Patriots actually exacerbated the problem by signing Webster, Williams and Sanders, but like I said, there's no way all three guys are around when the season starts. If they are, well, the Patriots will definitely need to average 50 points a game because their defense will be, to put it kindly, a liability.)

The New Orleans Saints missed out on the best former Patriots cornerback in the free agency market when Asante Samuel signed with the Eagles, but they've now signed their second choice.

Adam Schefter of NFL Network reports (via PFT) that the Saints have signed Randall Gay to a four-year, $17.8 million contract. The deal includes a $3.75 million signing bonus and $6.9 million guaranteed. Gay could earn up to $9 million in the first two years of the contract.

Gay played in all 16 games for the Patriots last year and started three, and he's expected to step into the starting lineup immediately for the Saints. New Orleans' greatest weakness last year was its pass defense, and although Gay isn't the kind of shutdown cornerback who can change that pass defense all by himself, he is an improvement.

For the Patriots, Gay wouldn't be much of a loss -- if they hadn't also lost Samuel. As it is, the Patriots are now without two of their top three corners from last season, and no one seems to know who will start in New England opposite Ellis Hobbs. The Patriots always seem to have a plan, but I'm having a hard time figuring out what it is when it comes to their defense.

The cynical observer might think the Patriots are at the end of their salary-cap-era dynasty, a run that started with their improbable 2001 Super Bowl victory over the Rams. With Asante Samuel now in Philly, Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi at the end of their careers (even though both might be back in '08), Rosie Colvin released, Randy Moss's future with the organization up in the air, and the circus that has become Patriotgate, it's only natural to conclude that next season will be very different than last.

In theory, maybe, but Bill Belichick has an annoying habit of fielding competitive teams, even if the talent might suggest otherwise. Whatever, 2008 could be his biggest challenge. While we wait for the Moss situation to resolve itself, the Boston Globe is reporting that New England is going about the business of replacing Samuel.

The obvious choice is backup Randall Gay, but he too could sign elsewhere. Gay isn't a game-changer like Samuel, but he's been a solid contributor during his four-year career. And if the Pats don't re-sign him, their secondary goes from not bad to very, very bad in the span of a few weeks.

Enter candidate No. 1, Jason Webster.

In October 2006, the Patriots and Asante Samuel had discussions about renegotiating the fourth-year cornerback's contract. At the time, the two side were just $2.5 million apart in guaranteed money; according to the Boston Globe's Mike Reiss, Samuel was seeking around $10 million in bonuses on an extension. The Patriots were offering around $7.5 million.

The Patriots opted to extend center Dan Koppen and put Samuel's contract on the back burner. Samuel never got his extension, briefly held out, was slapped with the franchise tag last off-season and now, he's a few days away from becoming a free agent.

Samuel now figures to command more than double the $10 million in bonuses he was seeking in 2006. Samuel's gamble to play out his contract - and, more importantly, assume the risk to stay healthy and be productive - is paying off.

On the flip side, Patriots vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli has noted that deciding when to be proactive or reactive is one of the more challenging aspects of putting a team together.

As Reiss notes, if the Pats had been proactive with Samuel during the '06 season, they wouldn't be in the position of losing him now. Of course, New England always finds somebody -- anybody -- to step up. Whether it's Randall Gay, a draft pick, or even Ty Law, the Pats will somehow manage. Plus, now they've got this guy to shore up the secondary.

Asante Samuel and the Patriots have until February 29 to work out a new contract or the fifth-year cornerback hits the free-agent market. Depending on whether Nnamdi Asomugha and Marcus Trufant are franchised by their respective teams, Samuel could be the most sought after player -- at any position -- once free agency begins.

The Patriots have promised they wouldn't franchise Samuel (again) so they are faced with paying him gobs of dough or going in a different direction. If they choose to pay him, it won't come cheap (surprising, I know). But how much is the 27-year-old former fourth-round pick looking for? Samuel's agent spoke with the Boston Globe's Christopher Gasper:

Last year, Nate Clements was the top free agent cornerback and received an eight-year, $80 million deal from the San Francisco 49ers that included a $10 million signing bonus and a $10 million option bonus due this year.

But the key to Clements's deal with relation to Samuel is the $28.9 million in base salary and bonuses Clements can make in the first three years. It will likely take something in that range for the Patriots to retain Samuel, although Shavers said he and Samuel haven't settled on numbers yet.

So there you go. Guarantee Samuel somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million in the first three years, and he's yours, New England. The Patriots have a history of letting high-priced free agents walk (Richard Seymour, Tom Brady and Corey Dillon are the obvious exceptions) and there's no reason to think they'd create future cap problems form themselves just to keep Samuel.

If the two sides can't come to an agreement, one option might be to promote Randall Gay.

ESPN.com's K.C. Joyner spends a lot of time watching football. And after watching every play of the 2007 season, he thinks Asante Samuel's reputation precedes him. Or more precisely, that Samuel's reputation might not be worth as much as the Nate Clements-type contract he'll surely want this off-season.

According to Joyner's statistics, Samuel was much better in 2006 than last season, and his contract demands might not be worth it based on his productivity. I'm sure the Patriots have considered as much, but I wonder if they came to the same conclusion as Joyner about how to address the potential problem:

If [Samuel's drop in productivity in '07 wasn't] enough to give the Patriots pause, there are some compelling alternate options to Samuel on the free-agent market. The first of these players is already on New England's roster, nickel cornerback Randall Gay.

Gay had a superb 5.8 YPA last season and allowed zero completions on the seven vertical passes thrown his way. Those numbers indicate he has the potential to be a starter. Gay is almost certain to garner a lot of interest on the market, but he will not be priced at the elite cornerback level. He would not cost the Patriots anywhere near as much as Samuel and could potentially give them

Okay, on the surface this sounds preposterous. But then I remembered that Gay was serviceable during his rookie season (2004) when he started nine games for an injured Ty Law.