FanHouse SECfootballpreview07

A sorry confluence of poor timing and shoddy internet service, with a little bit of real life thrown in, put the SEC preview schedule all out of whack. But hey, we're the SEC, we do what we want in the college football world anyway, right? So, hopelessly late, here's a missing piece of the SEC football preview '07 puzzle: a look at the Tennessee Vols.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

Good Erik: Erik Ainge had a statistically impressive 2006, finishing third in the SEC in QB rating (151.9) and breaking the school's completion percentage record (67%). But that's not why Tennessee can count on a good 2007. There are two moments in Erik Ainge's career at Tennessee that define him as a quarterback. One occurred last October in the Alabama game. Ainge, who was having at best an "off day" passing, threw an interception (his second of the day) to Bama's Simeon Castille, who ran the ball back to Tennessee's 8 yard line before being forced out of bounds by Ainge. Alabama settled for a field goal and the game stayed close. Later, Ainge led the Vols on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive that won the game. Had Castille scored on the interception, Bama might have put the game away early. But Ainge's hustle in the face of a mistake kept his team in it. As far as Ainge's offensive play goes, he won't have the luxury of throwing to experienced guys like Robert Meachem this season. In fact, he'll be breaking in a whole new set of wide outs. And while that might sound like a detriment, Ainge got a head start on breaking in the new guys, as he and linebacker Jerrod Mayo scripted and ran three full practices without the coaches present during the summer. Keep in mind too, that five of the last six BCS champions had a senior quarterback leading them. I'm just sayin'.

Like Brian Cook and his Wolverines, my Gators are the team that makes my heart pound wildly, my mouth fill with cottonballs and my legs tremble like a 'cisco aftershock. Keep a close eye on me, here; I'm an SEC first guy here at FanHouse and today, the Gators are just another team in the conference.

Just. Another. Team. Repeat. Just. Another. Team. *Cough* Okay, let's light this candle.

The FanHouse SEC blogger contingent believes that Florida is one of our four "contenders" in 2007. The other vaunted teams in that list include LSU, Tennessee, and Auburn. Speaking for Mr. Ferguson only, I think the Gators are either #2 or #3 in terms of "rank" in that list.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

Wide receiver: I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Gators might have the sickest wide receiver corps ever to suit up in Gainesville. It's no stretch to imagine that at least three of the Gators' WRs might be first round NFL draft picks: Percy Harvin, who now wears the #1 jersey, Cornelius Ingram, a TE/WR who became a possession receiver for Chris Leak in 2006, and Andre Caldwell, who runs a blistering 4.3 and can catch anything thrown near him. He's also great running out of the backfield on the reverse. On top of that you have Louis Murphy, who had an outstanding spring game as Tim Tebow's favorite target, sophomore Jarred Fayson, who according to practice reports has made a huge forward leap and is as good a receiver as anyone else on the roster, Riley Cooper, who stood out on special teams last year, and hyped freshman recruit Deonte Thompson, who will probably see playing time in '07. They all catch, they all run, they all block. Fayson even took snaps at QB in '06. Yeah, Urban Meyer likes to mix it up. Prediction: every one of those guys will be playing in the NFL someday. Sure, Percy Harvin is a star among stars, but with such a deep and talented group of wide receivers, it'd be criminal if the ball didn't get distributed to all of them. And I expect it will.

Now we're cooking with gas. We've finally gotten through the unpleasantness of the Mississippi teams, Vanderbilt's automatic NoBowl4U, and the mild discomfort of assigning the mediocre label to Kentucky and South Carolina. Now we move onto the contenders. And man-oh-man, do we have some kick-ass teams ready to explode in the SEC. Our first contender, and undoubtedly the best team overall, is LSU.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

Matt Flynn. Jacob Hester. Early Doucet. Glenn Dorsey. That covers the running, throwing, catching, and defending part. Those are this year's impact players. Despite losing 9 starters, including #1 overall draft pick Jamarcus Russell, two O-linemen, two WRs and both safeties, LSU is poised to be the most talented team in the conference for the second year running. Yeah, they're talented, all right. LSU is so freakin' talented it's positively stunning. Best in the SEC? Shoot, this might be the deepest, most athletic and most talented team in the nation, except for top-ranked USC, and even that's debatable. If the SEC could be won by talent alone, we could forego the 2007 season and hand the conference title trophy to the Tigers and not bother playing any games. However, LSU bore that mantle last year, and not only did they fail to win the SEC, they finished third in their division. The message? It takes more than talent; but talent will get you a long way.

As you can probably tell, we here at FanHouse are following a prescribed format for our "Preview" series across all of the BCS conferences. However, "The Mediocre," a fine category for most purposes, isn't a fat one for the SEC in '07. Why? Simply because there are only two teams which kinda-sorta-maybe qualify for the label. One features a 1st-team All-SEC quarterback and the other features a kid coached by the Evil Genius himself. Are these teams really mediocre? By SEC standards, perhaps... or perhaps not. I'd prefer to call them "promising," but since we have to pick someone, we'll go with...

Kentucky Wildcats

They've got Andre Woodson, Keenan Burton, and Rafael Little. Woodson is our aforementioned preseason first-team All-SEC quarterback, and is also FanHouse's #1 SEC Quarterback. Burton is a fine SEC WR and Rafael Little was great on the ground in '06. Many feel Kentucky might field one of the SEC's best offenses in 2007, and for good reason; Woodson put up 31 TDs to just 7 INTs in 2006. He also led Kentucky to an 8-5 season and an ultra-rare bowl appearance... and on top of that, they won the damn thing. So just what about Kentucky is mediocre? Nothing. Kentucky brings a great offense... and a defense which couldn't stop a group of elementary school kids trying to score with a medicine ball. Yin and Yang. Light and ark. Good and bad. There is no mediocre. On the plus side, Kentucky was extremely young on D in '06, starting five freshmen. They can only be better in '07. Linebacker Wesley Woodyard is probably the Cats' best player on D. Although he led the team in tackles in '06, he is a second team All-SEC selection this year. He'll need to keep opposing offenses honest by stopping both the run and the removing the short crossing route option. Is Kentucky truly mediocre? Only in the sense that among six outstanding teams in the conference, Kentucky is noticably less talented, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Woodson, Burton and Little will need to ring up pinball style scores to beat the SEC superpowers they'll face in their '07 campaign. Nonetheless, Kentucky is a legitimate, if not dark-horse SEC title contender, which on its own is a real accomplishment by Rich Brooks.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Steve Spurrier's goal in his first year as South Carolina's head coach was to win more games than he lost. In year two, it was to reach and win a bowl game. In year three, Spurrier has stated that the 'Cocks will try to win a conference championship. The Visored One achieved his first two goals, and along the way notched wins against Florida and Tennessee. Does anyone doubt him when he says the 'Cocks are contenders in '07? Not this Gator fan, who knows all too well that when Spurrier sets his sights on an objective, he will usually accomplish it. It's tough calling Spurrier's squad mediocre. But South Carolina is probably tied with Kentucky for fourth place in the SEC East in terms of talent and overall potential. In the West, LSU and Auburn are still unquestionably notched above the 'Cocks. USCe will live and die by the arm of Blake Mitchell. At times Mitchell has looked the part of a Spurrier-coached quarterback: perfect mechanics, precision passes, and perfect reads. At others, he's looked dazed, confused, and even lost. If Mitchell can put together a steady string of top-caliber performance, South Carolina can scare the wits out of any SEC foe they face in 2007.

What About Alabama?

Never doubt Alabama alumnus Pete Holiday's ability to wear a dispassionate SEC hat and avoid homering in on his beloved Crimson Tide. I had not planned to include Alabama in the 'mediocre' category; they return too much talent, have a great quarterback, and of course they now have a strong coaching staff. "Might want to consider Alabama for a 'mediocre' rating," wrote Pete in an email. "With Saban tempering expectations the way he is, we could be in for a 7 or 8 win season." "No freaking way is Alabama mediocre," I replied. "I have Kentucky and South Carolina. That's it." Pete thought it over. "We'll see. I don't see them finishing in the top 1/3 of the conference this year... but I'd be happy to be wrong about that." Viewing 2007 through those deceitful pre-season glasses, the conference's Top 4 will probably be Florida, LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee. Knocking on the door will be Alabama and Georgia. Then, and only then, do you hit the mediocre category: Kentucky and South Carolina are the dark horses. So there you have it, Pete: I'm saying Alabama will finish in the SEC's Top 5.

In the SEC, the "Dregs" are programs which historically haven't been able to compete with the conference superpowers. Things don't change much in this category -- except, perhaps, for South Carolina, a team which under Steve Spurrier has become increasingly competitive. There won't be too many surprises in this preview.

Ole Miss Rebels

Last year: 4-8 overall, 2-6 SEC WHY THEY'LL WIN: Let's give Coach "O", now in his third year as head coach at Ole Miss, a chance to work with his recruits, which now make up the majority of the team. Let's also give Brent Schaeffer a chance to become the SEC's most improved quarterback. With a year of SEC starts under his belt, Schaeffer's performance in '07 might be a complete 180 from his last outing. Of course, since Ole Miss ranked 110th nationally in passing efficiency last season, it'd be disturbing if they didn't improve significantly in this department. Schaeffer will have the advantage of four returning starters on the offensive line and a good running back in BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who should make the pre-season All-SEC "Best Name" team. WHY THEY WON'T: Mississippi suffers from one of the poorest athletic budgets in the SEC as well as a yearly conference slate which includes Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas. In '07 they also pick up a road game in Athens against Georgia and have defending national champion Florida visiting the Rebs in Oxford. Out of eight conference opponents, six will be ranked in the Top 20, and two start the season in the Top 5. Ole Miss won't win any of those games, but could still win five games this year if they take care of their OOC line-up, plus beat Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. PROGNOSIS: Some are calling for Ed Orgeron's Rebels to make a bowl game in 2007. I'm not sharing their optimism. This is a team which should hope to become more competitive against top-flight competition, and grit out some close wins against lower-tier SEC teams. Winning six games seems extremely unlikely but it should be set as a goal for the Rebs. Look for 3-5 wins in 2007.

Now we look at the best, worst, and weirdest aspects of the 2007 SEC schedule.

Best schedule: LSU

What's the "best" schedule look like? Is it the most exciting? It is the hardest? Actually, we're going to go with "most favorable." And there's no question LSU wins in this department. With their out-of-conference matchup against Virginia Tech in the second week of the season -- played at night in Baton Rouge -- the Tigers have an opportunity for a fast start. Knocking off Virginia Tech would be an early feather in the cap for LSU. (Actually, let's avoid that metaphor -- Les Miles' baseball cap is already huge.) LSU gets South Carolina, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas at home in 2007, and they're all scheduled to start at 8:00PM (note: the Arky kickoff is still TBA). Night games in Death Valley are about as fun as pulling fingernails with pliers for opponents unlucky enough to get this draw. Barring early losses, LSU will be favored to win every one of those games. Their toughest away matchup will be @ Alabama where they face their new arch-nemesis and former head coach, Nick Saban. They'll also play @ Kentucky, @ Mississippi State, and @ Tulane -- and that's it. This is a far cry from an easy schedule. LSU will be facing a minimum of five Top 20 teams, possibly as many as seven, and the road to the BCS National Championship game will be long, hard, and require luck as well as talent, skill, and hard work. But in the SEC, this is as good as it gets. Tiger fans will be disappointed with anything less than appearance in the title game.

(Image via Georgia Sports Blog and Kit Kitchens)

Being a coach in the SEC can be lucrative (just ask any coach at Alabama). But because of the insanely high expectations each fan base has for its team, it can also be a pressure cooker (just ask any former coach at Alabama). Coaching in the SEC is kind of like being a salesman in Glengarry Glen Ross: first place, an SEC championship; second place, a set of steak knives; third place, you're fired.

Alright, so maybe third place isn't grounds for immediate dismissal, but it makes the barbecue circuit in the spring a little more uncomfortable. More than half the coaches in the league have been with their teams for less than five years, so turnover isn't unusual. Before we take a look at coaches who need to impress this fall to remain on their respective sidelines, let's be clear about who most likely isn't worried about losing his job anytime soon.

1. Urban Meyer -- current king of college football
2. Nick Saban -- even if he's not Bear Reincarnate, Bama's got a lot of money tied up in him.
3. Steve Spurrier -- If you can charge $100/year for access to your website, you've got job security. Click clack.
4. Tommy Tuberville -- Steadily maintains one of the best programs in the SEC this decade.
5. Mark Richt -- see also Tommy Tuberville
6. Les Miles -- Goofy hat, goofier comments, but wins.

Surprisingly, Bobby Johnson still isn't on the hot seat. He's managed to do something that nobody else has done since George McIntyre in the early 80s: hold the Vandy job for more than five years. And whether or not he also becomes the first coach to lead the 'Dores to a bowl since McIntyre, he's well-liked in Nashville and should be around for awhile. Also, Rich Brooks has gone from fans wearing "Rich Brooks Farewell Tour" t-shirts to writing songs about him, and could take the 'Cats to back-to-back bowl games for only the third time in 25 years.

So which of the four remaining coaches are on the hot seat? After the jump...

Overrated? The SEC? Never!

Calling a given player 'overrated' is a tricky thing. 'Overrated' does not imply good, nor does it imply bad. Overrated simply means, in our eyes, that too much hype/speculation/what have you surrounds the shimmering aura of this college football player. And we're going to put a stop to that nefarious practice by taking an objective look... right now. Here are the SEC's "Most Overrated" Players. A tough job, mind you, because this conference is filled with outstanding players.

1. Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt

I love Vanderbilt. I've been quoted as saying as much here at FanHouse for the past eon or so, and they're easily my second favorite team in the SEC after my beloved Gators. I don't love them because they win championships, or for that matter even that they win a few games. I love them because they're a fiercely competitive team that never gives up no matter how far down they may be, and because they give everyone they play a tough game despite Vandy's difficulty in landing premiere players. So why would I tag WR Earl Bennett as an "overrated" player? In 2006 he had 1146 receiving yards and six TDs. That's a damn good year for an SEC player. But I think he's overrated, which as the abstract above clearly explains, does not mean he's a marginal player. I think he's quite good, but not 1st-team All-SEC (which is where he was voted by SEC coaches in the pre-season.) When you look at Bennett's production in 2006, the majority of his yards and TDs come via lesser teams. Against Tennessee State, Duke, Ole Miss, and Kentucky (all of which field horrendous defenses) he racked up 664 yards, over half of his year total, and 3 of his 6 TDs. Against Michigan, Alabama, and Arkansas, and Tennessee he only managed 150 combined yards and one TD. Oddly enough, one of Bennett's better games was against the Gators in Nashville, where he racked up 157 yards and a TD. However, that yardage came primarily in the second half, when the Gator defense opened the umbrella while they tried to nurse a 25-6 lead in the 4th quarter. That doesn't disqualify Bennett's results, of course, but it's a heck of a lot easier to catch passes when you're going up against deep zone coverage. Good, but not great: Earl Bennett.

There's an old coaching saying attributed to Bear Bryant (though most old coaching sayings are attributed to Bryant) that says you lose a conference game for every freshman you start. Last year, Florida started Percy Harvin, and lost a game. They also won SEC and national championships. That's probably why over the summer Urban Meyer said that, starting with his top-ranked 2007 recruiting class, he doesn't plan on redshirting freshmen anymore.

So again, this post probably could have featured at least five Gators to watch in 2007. But instead, let's start with a freshman who may be starting from day one at one of Florida's rivals...

1. Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee

Eric Berry has pulled off two impressive yet disparate feats: he ran a 4.33 in an electronically timed 40-yard dash, and he has drawn comparisons to Peyton Manning. Obviously, the Manning thing isn't because they have similar speed, but because Berry is considered to be the most important recruit to show up in Knoxville since sainted Peyton in the mid-90s. The only reason Berry was a five-star athlete coming out of high school is that they don't give anybody six stars. He was the number one player in Georgia, the number one cornerback nationally (he also ran for over 1,200 yards and threw for 1,000 his senior season as a quarterback), and the number three overall player nationally. His father, James, was a captain for the Vols in the late 1970s, but the legend will say that it was not his legacy status that drew the younger Berry to UT, but Fulmer and Cutcliffe's insistence that Berry would play in a scheme similar to Arkansas' famed 'Wildcat' package used with Darren McFadden. How quickly Berry sees the offensive side of the ball will likely depend on how fast he secures his role as a starting corner for the Vols, where he will fill one of the holes left by Jonathan Wade, Antwan Stewart, and the injured Inky Johnson. Early reports are that Berry is physically ready and mentally mature, so it might not take long.

Who's comin'? Who's gone? Who's gonna make a run for the brass ring? Here's a look at how the SEC's position battles are heating up.

1. LSU Running Back

Since Matt Flynn has the starting QB position sewn up, let's have a look at the Tiger's RB position. Senior Jacob Hester (FB) returns as the '06 squad's leading rusher. The bruising 232 pounder from Shreveport was also a reliable option to catch passes from Jamarcus Russell out of the backfield. In '07 Hester will be joined by sophomore Keiland Williams and heavyweight junior Alley Broussard (250 lbs.!) Some new faces include frosh Richard Murphy and JUCO transfer FB Chad Baniecki. Will Les Miles try to find a 100-yard every down back in the bunch? With as much talent and depth as he has on his roster, it's reasonable to expect to see a variety of looks at the RB position. While a 'star' running back may not have a chance to emerge, we'll be surprised if Jacob Hester and Alley Broussard aren't isn't getting the majority of the touches. Despite losing top talent in '06, the Tigers will be the odds-on favorite to win the SEC in '07.