LAS VEGAS -- The question for the Oklahoma City Thunder is whether premium free agents will want to play in a city with little NBA reputation. That question will loom large in coming years because the Thunder will have a satchel full of money and cap space to attract an All-Star caliber player to join Kevin Durant, James Harden and Jeff Green.
Until then, the Thunder will rely on the draft and clever moves such as the mid-season signing of Nenad Krstic and the acquisition of former lottery pick Thabo Sefolosha. Oklahoma City has one of the NBA's lowest payrolls -- although many critics would say that's due to the thriftiness of owner Clay Bennett -- and just $20 million committed to players after the 2010-11 season. But will any of those potential 2010 free agents -- a class that includes LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Dirk Nowitzki -- consider the Dust Bowl?
ORLANDO -- The Summer of 2010, which was supposed to be the mother load of all NBA free-agent classes, won't be the thriller that many anticipated.
The free spending just won't exist, according to several league executives and agents at the Orlando Pro Summer League Thursday.
News this week that the league is anticipating a dramatic drop in both the salary cap and the punitive luxury tax threshold for the 2010-11 season has sent a chill through every team in the league.
Although almost half the NBA teams had been shuffling future contracts to clear salary cap space in anticipation of a free agent feeding frenzy in 2010, many of those plans are looking rather bleak today.
The market for restricted free agent Paul Millsap was expected to be robust in theory, if not in actuality. This is to say Millsap is a highly desired fellow, given his proclivity to rebound like a champ, score efficiently, and defend his tail off at the power forward position. However, as always, a limited pool of clubs will head into July with cap space for next season.
The Thunder is one team with space to sign a free agent like Millsap. The team currently falls about $15 million under the cap, and Millsap has been pegged to pull a starting salary around $7-8 million. Oklahoma City can certainly afford to get into that ballpark, should Sam Presti desire to. Ross Siler of the Salt Lake Tribune seems to believe OKC, in fact, desires Millsap.
It has been said of late the draft begins with Oklahoma City at No. 3. Well, Sam Presti didn't pull out a bag of tricks -- he took the somewhat expected pick, shooting guard James Harden of Arizona State. Harden figures to slide right into the Thunder line-up between Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.
Speaking of Westbrook, who earlier this week bristled at the idea OKC could select point guard Ricky Rubio: he's going to love feeding Harden the ball. Harden is an incredibly efficient scorer. He even finished higher than Stephen Curry in True Shooting percentage last season. While not a perfect shooter, Harden has good athleticism and he was a solid defender in college. We'll see how much of an upgrade on Damien Wilkins and Thabo Sefolosha he can become.
It's almost unfair to judge a draft after one year, but this is what we're going to do. The final edition of our Revisiting the Draft series examines the 2008 Draft and believe or not, there are teams already harboring regrets from their picks.
Despite the extensive scouting, workouts and interviews involved in the draft, teams still make major mistakes and these days, prospects don't get three years to develop. Of the 14 lottery picks in 2006, six have already changed teams and players such as Patrick O'Bryant and Mouhamed Sene are not guaranteed jobs next season.
The NBA waits for no one, especially if they are taking too long to make an impact. So while teams won't freely admit they made mistakes 12 months after draft night, they will privately admit they overestimated talent and heart, and sooner or later, that will cost front-office jobs.
Hard to believe that several NBA general managers can have regrets after two years, but it's true. The results of the 2007 NBA Draft are slowly reaping, which should teach a lesson to their 2009 brethren on Thursday about taking chances on raw college players, international prospects and even those who are allegedly "proven."
The biggest debate two years ago was whether the Portland Trail Blazers should take Greg Oden or Kevin Durant first overall. Oden was a franchise center out of Ohio State while Durant was the smooth scoring swingman from Texas. Durant had the better workout with the Blazers, apparently blowing the mind of coach Nate McMillan. Yet, the Blazers stuck with conventional thinking and took the big man.
Over the weekend, the Jazz announced that Jerry Sloan would be back for his 22nd year as head coach in 2009-10, the longest stint for any head coach in any of the professional sports.
On the exact opposite of the longevity spectrum, the Thunder and Timberwolves are mulling the futures of Scott Brooks and Kevin McHale, respectively, two of the newest members of the NBA's head coaching fraternity. Will they remain with Sloan in that elite group?
When the Sonics acquired Brent Barry from the Spurs in the Kurt Thomas trade, it was obvious that the only reason they wanted him was because of his expiring contract. Today, that point was hammered home when it was announced that the Sonics waived Barry before he even had a chance to suit up.
There's talk than the Suns and Warriors might be interested in him, but he could always just return to San Antonio -- and in hindsight, it's only natural to wonder if that was the plan all along. From Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News:
[The] Spurs should want him back, and maybe this is a Jerry Stackhouse arrangement. The Seattle general manager who traded for and then waived Barry, Sam Presti, once worked for R.C. Buford.
Why this would be more likely to pass an NBA inspection: Unlike Stackhouse, who blabbed about how he would return to Dallas, thus scuttling his deal, Barry would be too smart for that.
Of course, for Barry to return to the Spurs he'd have to sit out for 30 days, during which time he'll be courted by other contenders hoping to change his mind with bribes of more playing time. Considering the NBA threatened to squash the Stackhouse trade because of a similar arrangement, it'll be interesting to see how the commissioner's office would react to Barry's return. Maybe there's not enough evidence for David Stern to actually levy punishment or block the move, but it might be a loophole he'll want to considering tightening up this summer.
Berri uses his Wins Produced system as detailed (well, discussed) in The Wages of Wins to surmise Seattle could win 37 games next season. He admits this is guesswork, especially with so many new faces and no idea the rotation P.J. Carlesimo will settle on. The real surprise, though, is that Berri attributes a good portion of the predicted improvement on the additions of Kurt Thomas, Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak -- not necessarily the presence of Kevin Durant and Jeff Green.
Could the Sonics really get better so quickly? We've all accepted Sam Presti's plan as long-term in nature; Wally and Thomas, in particularly, are seen solely as contracts instead of basketball players. But if Presti has managed to build a team which won't depress its fans in the immediate as well as excite them in the future, well then he's done a better job than even we fanboys thought.
Owner Clay Bennett started to 'put Lenny out to pasture' a month ago when Wilkens got demoted upon Sam Presti's hiring. Bennett was reportedly upset with Wilkens' allegedly using the media to strengthen his own salary negotiations. And if we know one thing about Clay Bennett, it's that he doesn't like his employees being friendly with the media.
Wilkens' role was cosmetic by this point, so the move is structurally moot. But symbolically, it's one more foot out the door of the Emerald City. The body's about to follow.
LAS VEGAS -- The question for the Oklahoma City Thunder is whether premium free agents will want to play in a city with little NBA reputation. That question will loom large in coming years because the Thunder will have a satchel full of money and cap space to attract an All-Star caliber player to join Kevin Durant, James Harden and Jeff Green.
ORLANDO -- The Summer of 2010, which was supposed to be the mother load of all NBA free-agent classes, won't be the thriller that many anticipated.
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