FanHouse SeattleSeahawks

In continuing with our three-part series on ADP analysis, today we look at the second method in which average draft position can be utilized to uncover values come draft day -- trend analysis.

This approach involves following a sequence of successive ADP charts over a span of time, usually a couple of months (or anteing up for a premium service that tracks more detailed mock draft data), and following the trends. Trends in ADP are great indicators of who is moving up or down on depth charts, which players have made breakthroughs in camp, and most of all, who got dinged up in camp -- information that can be daunting to follow on a player-by-player basis.

---

---

NEW YORK -- The Broncos just made a deal with Seattle to get Wake Forest defensive back Alphonso Smith with the 37th overall pick. In exchange for the pick, Denver gave Seattle its first-round pick in next year's draft.

The Broncos were one of the biggest pre-draft stories because of the personality conflict that led new coach Josh McDaniels to trade Jay Cutler to the Bears. With the two first-round picks they were left with as a result of that deal, the Broncos picked running back Knowshon Moreno and defensive end Robert Ayers, and they just made a move to get Smith. So they addressed three needs in the first 37 picks (and got Kyle Orton) as a result of moves they've made in the past month.

Not a bad haul, but it strikes me that unless Orton's the answer, they're still going to need a quarterback. And they just traded a first-round pick from next year's quarterback-rich draft?

Detroit's slow, slow, slow crawl back to respectability took a step in the right direction on Thursday, as the Lions signed running back Maurice Morris to a three-year, $7 million deal.

Morris rushed for 574 yards in 13 games with the Seahawks last season. He's been in Seattle since being drafted out of Oregon in 2002 (fun Lions fact: Morris was the Ducks running back when Joey Harrington was their quarterback), and has proven to be a valuable backup behind guys like Shaun Alexander and Julius Jones.

Because if Jerramy Stevens wants to play professional football for a living, he's going to have to move. Seahawks GM Tim Ruskell announced today that the Seahawks are washing their hands of Stevens.

Stevens was never particularly productive with the Seahawks, but has enjoyed a very long and storied career with our nation's penal system. Strap in for a second, this next paragraph is going to get bumpy.

Stevens has two marijuana arrests, a second degree assault, was accused of stomping on a man's face, was arrested (but never charged) for sexual assault, two instances of reckless driving, one where he crashed his car into a nursing home, and, of course, this list would not be complete without a DUI. Oh, and his neighbors repeatedly called the cops on him because they were tired of his vomit and used condoms all over the place. And he also kneed Tyler Brayton in the balls.

Also, he hasn't been a very good tight end. But other than that, he's been great in Seattle.

Seriously, this may be one of the least pleasant men in the world. Outside of the obvious, like dictators and people convicted of violent crimes, there really aren't many people in the world I'd want to hang out with less that Jerramy Stevens. If I had to choose between having a beer with Stevens or shooting heroin with Carrot Top, well, go ahead and tie me off, Top, and let's get to shooting.

Personally, I hope Stevens ends up in Miami, so we can hear about the Joey Porter/Jerramy Stevens fights that happen every single day during Dolphins training camp. Porter would love it, too, because only when Jerramy Stevens was around when anyone ever say, "Boy, I'm sure glad Joey Porter's here."

The people of China will be treated to a Seahawks/Patriots exhibition game this summer, and in an effort to reproduce the Yao effect and give the game more of a local interest, the NFL is trying to get one or more Chinese kickers into the game. The 'Hawks and Patriots have both agreed to carry a kicker on their roster, but they aren't required to actually use them.

That's where Nicholas Setta comes in. Setta, who kicked at Notre Dame and kicks now in the Canadian Football League, is attempting to teach Gao Wei, Ding Long, and Shen Yalei (or, as they've come to be known in America, William, Rambo, and Sean, because I guess their wild ethnic names are just too much for our simple minds) how to kick.

The Chinese trio is doing pretty well. They can each hit from 48 yards, and they feel like they could make 30 yarders consistently. Granted, this isn't happening during game conditions, but if they could reproduce that against a rush, under pressure ... they, there are worse NFL kickers out there. If I had to pick Ding Long or Mike Vanderjagt right now, Ding's my guy.

I know I just lampooned the defensive line for its lousy pass coverage late in games, but I do have to give them a break because of one thing: the Broncos have faced virtually all of the league's biggest, toughest running backs in the last few weeks, and when you look at it, this schedule could wear out any defensive line.

In case you're wondering, here's the list, starting six weeks ago: LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and a repeat of Tomlinson. Then the Broncos got a "break" against Edge and Rudi Johnson. During the four-game stretch starting and ending with Tomlinson, the Broncos defense allowed an average of 113 rushing yards to their opponent's top runners, and lost all four games.

In the Broncos' longest winning streak this season, a five-game tear from weeks 2 to 7, the defense allowed an average of just 56 yards per game to top backs. Coincidence? Not at all. Even though the Broncos played some of those games against good running backs (they allowed 126 yards in the win over Larry Johnson and the Chiefs), the majority of them were against mediocre ones. When the team has faced a big running back behind a good offensive line this year, they've been absolutely run over.

Next week, the Broncos will face Frank Gore, who despite being on one of the NFC's worst teams (come on, they lost to the Cardinals), is the NFC's lead rusher. Gore can't carry San Francisco alone, but you can bet the Niners will try to exploit the weak running game this Sunday. If they're successful, the game might be a lot closer than anyone in Broncos Country wants.

This all brings me back to my point about the defensive line - something's got to change. The Broncos linebacking corps is really fast, so teams aren't running it outside anymore. They're stuffing it up the middle or running to the middle and cutting outside, and it's working. Yeah, the line has been beat up pretty bad late in the season, but if they can't stop Frank Gore on Sunday, I don't care if they win. They're not going to go very far in the playoffs because almost every playoff team in the AFC has one thing in common - a big running back that has torn up Denver's line.

The Broncos got beat by the best team in football Sunday, and, at least late in the game, got ran over by the best player in the game. Mind you, I'm not taking back my previous statements at all - that's because my previous statement was that there's no excuse for this loss, and that we got drummed.

And it's true. In the first half, the defense fell apart. They actually contained LT pretty well - but they couldn't get any pressure on Phillip Rivers, and he ripped this so-called "awesome" secondary apart. The half ended 28-3, making it a pretty tough spot for rookie QB Jay Cutler, who looked rough at best throughout the first half.

But that didn't stay the same - Jay Cutler was one of two Broncos who actually ended up playing well (the other was Tatum Bell). To start the second half, he lead the Broncos on three straight scoring drives, two of over 70 yards. He finished with what we would have called a pretty good day for Jake Plummer - 17 of 30 for 188 yards with two TDs, and more importantly, no interceptions.

Everyone was talking about the future before last week's game. Afterall, Jay Cutler, possible franchise quarterback for years to come, was starting his first game. But overshadowed in the hype over Cutler, and to some degree Tony Scheffler, Cutler's favorite pre-season taget, was wide receiver Brandon Marshall, one of this years' draft picks from Central Florida.

We know that the coaches think highly of Marshall, and with Rod Smith clearly slowing down this season with only 39 receptions and 388 yards so far, the rookie could be the replacement for the man who has defined the Broncos in the post-Elway era. And we got a taste of just what he can do last night. Late in the fourth quarter with the Broncos down by a touchdown, the outcome looked grim for the good guys. The offense, which had done nothing exciting all night, needed a hero.

Enter Brandon Marshall, 6'4", 230 lbs. He had been silent until what turned out to be the final drive of a the game for the Broncos. And then it happened. Marhsall took a little 6-yard out route, and with a brutal combination of speed, strength, and horrible, horrible tackling by Seattle, gave the Broncos a fresh glimmer of hope as he bolted 71 yards down the sideline for the score, which tied the game with the Jason Elam PAT. Of course, there were still over two minutes on the clock, and Seattle, as we all knew would happen, drove down the field and booted the winning fieldgoal with ten seconds left.

But let's not let Marshall's performance go by unnoticed and unexaggerated. It was something pretty special, and speaks highly of the team's future. It was heroic, it was magical, it was...Todd Devoe-esque. But sadly, Marshall wasn't the ultimate hero for the Broncos. No one was, they lost. Damn donkeys.

The good news is that Al Wilson appears to be okay after suffering what's being called a sprained neck in Sunday night's game against the Seahawks. This AP article seems to indicate that the middle linebacker could return to practice as early as this Wednesday, and might even play against San Diego next week. This dude is clearly tougher than a bad piece of steak - he's already been playing through thumb and chest problems this season, and now may even play right on through a sprained neck. But it's great, obviously, for him and his family, to see that Al is alright after a very scary moment when he was strapped down, taken off the field, and rushed to an area hospital.

The bad news is that unlike Wilson, the Broncos are in serious trouble. After Al left and was replaced with Keith Burns, the Seahawks trampled over the defense, which has been struggling to close out games lately. So much for the unprecedented depth of this team. And next week, the Broncos will see LaDainian Tomlinson again, which ends the following string of running backs this defense has had to face in consecutive weeks: LT, Larry Johnson, Shawn Alexander, and an encore of LT. So far they've lost all of those games - coincidence? If the defense isn't completely burned out by now, they will be after next Sunday. Thank goodness they get a break in the following two weeks, before having to deal with Frank Gore, the NFC's leading rusher. Of course, the secondary will get their workout against Cincinatti, when Ocho Cinco and TJ Houshmandzadeh come to town.

In other injury news, Fullback Cecil Sapp is out for the year with a broken leg, meaning the oft-injured Kyle Johnson will be starting for the rest of the season. And Jason Elam should be okay after straining his hamstring on one of the most bizarre series of plays in Bronco history. More on that later.