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Fantasy Football Risk or Reward: Weighing Injuries and Value

Tom Brady Brian Westbrook Marques Colston
When one prepares to draft a fantasy football team, myriad criterion should be considered in evaluating who to target, and, likewise, who to avoid. One word bouncing around just as frequently as anything else during said evaluation? Injury. Maybe a guy was injured for several games last season, maybe he suffered a season-ending injury or maybe he's just an injury-prone guy. This affects the value of players on draft day.

Let's check out the value of 10 guys with injury concerns, and judge whether or not they are up to the task for 2009.


Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings: 2009 Early Version

FanHouse's crack squad of savvy fantasy football personnel put our five heads together and amassed consensus rankings for non-keeper, standard scoring leagues. We'll update as the season gets closer, but this is our "incredibly early yet still fun" version.

In an otherwise jumbled mess, there is one thing we know about the running backs when it comes to fantasy football drafts: Adrian Peterson is easily the class of the position. After that, there appears to be a large clump of running backs who have a good chance to excel this season. If you think the old school fantasy football "running back-running back" draft strategy (drafting a running back in each of the first two rounds) is truly antiquated, ask yourself the difference between a Frank Gore and Marion Barber tandem in your backfield as opposed to Ronnie Brown and Jamal Lewis. Is it worth taking a wide receiver, then, before a Barber type?

Laurence Maroney Had Broken Bone in Shoulder Last Season

I've often argued -- unoriginally -- that, in general, NFL teams should avoid using first-round picks on running backs. Salary-cap friendly alternatives can often be found later in the draft, and other, harder-to-address needs -- like offensive line or wide receiver -- can be targeted in the early rounds.

There are exceptions: most recently Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson and LaDainian Tomlinson. But the NFL scrap heap is littered with former first-round backs who never panned out. It's too early to classify Laurence Maroney as such, but his three-year career has, so far, been underwhelming.

Chargers Could Draft RB in Round 1

I'm generally of the opinion that selecting a running back in the first round is a waste of money. Players of similar talent can be found later in the draft for a fraction of the salary-cap space, and it allows teams to address other, less fungible needs in the meantime.

There are exceptions, of course -- the Vikings and Adrian Peterson, the Rams and Steven Jackson, and the Chargers and LaDainian Tomlinson. But as we're constantly reminded, the NFL is a business with no room for sentimentality. Last offseason, the Seahawks dumped Shaun Alexander two years after he rushed for 1,880 yards, 27 touchdowns and was named league MVP.

Steven Jackson's Value Rising

The Rams recently inked a very solid fullback, in Mike Karney, but he's not the news in fantasy football. He shouldn't ever be owned in fantasy leagues, unless there are some who use fullbacks (I've never heard of any, though I'd prefer that to having a kicker). Karney is a quality football player, but that is a completely separate arena than being a fantasy football player.

What does happen with the move of Karney, though, is a ripple affect. Think about how much more effective Thomas Jones was this past season, after the Jets revamped their offensive line and acquired a solid blocking fullback.

Rams Land Fullback Mike Karney

Assuming the Rams don't screw up the second-overall draft pick, this has really been a great offseason. It started with hiring an up-and-coming coach in this league, Steve Spagnuolo. They've added depth to the secondary, shored up the middle of the offensive line, and now have signed a great fullback.

Mike Karney, who had previously spent his entire five-year career with the New Orleans Saints, will now be helping clear holes for Steven Jackson.

St. Louis Rams: Spagnuolo Era Begins

Because the NFL season never ends, we present our 2009 Offseason Roadmaps for front offices to navigate through the summer.

The 2008 season was an unmitigated disaster for the Rams. They had their star running back hold out, only to be re-signed and get injured -- an injury which lingered far too long. They fired their coach after four embarrassing games, won two straight under his replacement, but then dropped their final 10.

It was hard to find a strength on this team. The offense ranked 27th in the league, while the defense was 28th. Then again, Donnie Jones was one of the best punters in the league. So there's that.

NFL FanHouse Mock Draft 1.0


The draft has become one of the biggest events of the year for NFL fans. Maybe because everybody's a winner on draft day, or maybe because hope springs eternal and all that. Whatever the reason, we're fully trying to horn in on the action. Hence our first FanHouse mock draft of the '09 offseason. And we'd like to stress "mock."

Dynasty Diaries: Adrian Peterson Owns Keeper Running Back Rankings

As opposed to quarterbacks, I'm definitely in favor of keeping running backs. In fact, I highly recommend keeping two runners instead of a quarterback, if you have two of my top 20. Running backs are the life-blood of your fantasy team, much like the oil in your car. Two consistent runners on your fantasy team make life so much easier, which is why it's your starting point.

As I said, I'm recommending you keep two from the list, which is why I'm ranking more than I did for quarterbacks or wide receivers.

Ladies and Gents, your top 20 keeper running backs ...

Predicting Fantasy Football's Top 10 for 2009

The season just ended yesterday, but that's no excuse to stop thinking about fantasy football. Remember, it's never too early (wow, flashback). Obviously you are now thinking about keepers -- don't worry, we'll have bunches of dynasty diaries over the next couple weeks -- and looking ahead towards the elite players.

This season was certainly the year of the passer. In Fleaflicker standard scoring leagues, the top seven overall scorers were quarterbacks, including Matt Cassel. Chad Pennington and David Garrard in the top 15, and Tyler Thigpen was 16th. This is overall, guys. This is also why we warned against picking quarterbacks too early at the beginning of the season. I'll take this opportunity to warn against that again. Do not pick a quarterback in the first round. You only have to play one, and -- as you can see -- there are easily 12 serviceable starting quarterbacks.

Running back, on the other hand, has the moneymakers. I'm stubborn, and I still believe in RB-RB for the first two rounds. Even if you disagree, you at least need to get one within the first two rounds. So you'll notice the top 10 is full of them.

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