FanHouse Eye Toward October

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- One Final Gamble: For the better part of two months, the Brewers have been rolling the dice. They went out and got reigning AL Cy Young winner CC Sabathia in July. Once they got Sabathia and once it became clear the bullpen couldn't be trusted in tight spots, they rode Sabathia and Ben Sheets hard -- pushing them past the 110-pitch and even 120-pitch mark with regularity.

And then with the team scuffling through September, they made a move that was just as dramatic as the Sabathia trade -- they fired manager Ned Yost, an almost unprecedented move for a contender. Some of the gambles have worked and some of them haven't.

The effect of four 120-plus pitch starts probably took their toll on the fragile Sheets. But on the flip side, the Brewers would probably be out of contention if the Sabathia deal wasn't made.

Milwaukee will roll the dice one last time Sunday, hoping that one last roll will result in a spot in the postseason after 25 long years. Fittingly, they'll have their biggest gamble -- Sabathia -- on the mound for that last roll. And he'll be starting on short rest for the second consecutive turn. Things might not go the Brewers' way in their last stand of 2008, but at least they'll be in familiar territory with their season on the line.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Not Ready for Primetime: Someone has to win the AL Central. Next Thursday either the Twins or White Sox will take the field at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay with a shot at winning the World Series. But after a bullpen meltdown in Chicago and terrible Francisco Liriano start in Minneapolis, it doesn't seem like either team wants it very much.

Roughly a week ago, I wrote about how the Central race was the only one with any real drama, about how the NL wild-card race had lost its appeal because the Mets and Brewers seemed so fragile. Now, the opposite seems true. While the Mets and Brewers run their aces out on three days of rest and scrape and claw for every run, the Twins and White Sox seem determined to back into the playoff picture.

Of course anything can happen once a team gets into the postseason, but the Rays would be an exceptionally tough opponent even if the Twins or White Sox were playing well right now. With both teams playing poorly, it doesn't seem like the winner of the division will matter too much. Either way, it could be a quick first-round exit.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Pressure on Brewers: With a pair of dramatic walk-off wins Thursday night, the Mets and Brewers earned a little less than 24 hours of breathing room -- a momentary respite from the words choker and collapse. They enter the final weekend of the regular season tied for the wild-card lead, and, in another bit of symmetry, both teams must wait until Sunday for their aces -- Johan Santana and CC Sabathia -- to start.

The pressure is always on in the Big Apple, but make no mistake, Milwaukee is facing a tougher road to the postseason. The Brewers must deal with the best team in the National League, the Cubs, as they claw and scratch for a playoff spot.

Lou Piniella rested Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto in Chicago's final game against the Mets Thursday, but it's unlikely he will sit them all weekend against Milwaukee, especially with a chance to knock out a Brewers team that presents a real threat in October. And Piniella will also send his best two starters of late -- Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly -- to the mound in the first two games of the series. The Brewers will start the shaky Jeff Suppan and Ben Sheets coming off injury before turning to Sabathia in the finale.

Of course, the Mets won't have it easy this weekend. The Marlins are a dangerous team and New York is using a spot starter on Saturday. The Phillies will have to take care of business against the Nationals too. But as good as the vibes have been for the Brewers this week against the Pirates, the Cubs present a major obstacle to Milwaukee's playoff hopes.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Second City Collapse: With every loss in September, the Mets are painted as chokers -- victims of another September swoon. That depiction was fair in 2007. They had a seven-game lead in the standings on Sept. 12 and wound up out of contention. It is not fair this year. The largest lead they have had this September was 3 1/2 games.

No, the Mets are just a flawed team that loses very ugly and carries the stigma from a year ago. Shift your focus from Queens to the South Side of Chicago if you want to see a team on the verge of a "collapse." The White Sox have dropped the first two games of a three-game series with the Twins this week.

If Minnesota finishes the sweep tomorrow, Chicago will find itself in unfamiliar territory -- second place in the AL Central. It will also be staring down a harrowing final weekend, needing to pick up a game in the win column against the Indians while the Twins play host to the Royals.

Oh, if the White Sox collapse it won't be in the same realm as the Mets' historic freefall in 2007. But it will be nearly as frustrating. Since May 17, Chicago has occupied first place for all but a dozen days. For the vast majority of the season, Ozzie Guillen's bunch has been demonstrably better than the Twins. They have a more polished and experienced starting rotation, a slightly better bullpen and a superior collection of offensive talent.

All Minnesota has is a good defense to prop up a very pedestrian starting rotation and a surreal .310 batting average with runners in scoring position. The Twins have had one other thing, a decided edge in a vital year-end head-to-head matchup. With it, they've pushed the White Sox to the edge of a cliff. Mark it down: Chicago needs a win Thursday much more than Minnesota.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

Reyes Rises to Occasion: Life isn't easy for baseball players in New York. Just ask Jose Reyes. The shortstop has taken more blame than anyone this side of Willie Randolph and his teammates in the bullpen for the Mets' collapse last season.

Some of the criticism has been fair. Reyes hit .205 last September and his mental lapses always seem to occur at the worst time. But much of it hasn't been fair. He's been slammed for being unprofessional, for being carefree -- his elaborate handshakes and big smile the sign of someone who didn't care enough to stop New York's free-fall.

The truth? Reyes is a terrific player who went cold at the wrong time last year, but the Mets wouldn't have gotten as far as they did without him in the lineup. Tuesday night's win over the Cubs must have felt especially good to Reyes. His bases-clearing triple gave the Mets a bullpen-proof lead.

Johan Santana was the hero, but Reyes got the big hit. He ensured that the Mets would get a reprieve from all the collapse talk, kept them atop the wild-card race and helped them pick up a game on the Phillies. Has Reyes been vindicated? Not yet. But if the Mets do grab a playoff berth, Reyes' bases-clearing triple will be a big part of it.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Big Papi Busts Out: The news was almost entirely bad for the Red Sox Monday night. Josh Beckett looked pretty shaky. Boston allowed the Yankees to stay alive another day -- mostly because umpire Gerry Davis got in the way of a two-run double.

The big bright spot? David Ortiz is rounding into playoff form. Big Papi had a terrible April, then injured his wrist in May, then lost the hitter who protected him for years, Manny Ramirez, at the end of July. But he's hit two home runs in the last two days, one to the opposite field in Toronto and a second to the deepest part of Fenway Park Monday. He's driving the ball like he rarely has this year, and Boston needs him more than ever heading into October.

The Red Sox are not as vulnerable as they were in 2005, the last time they had a championship to defend, but they also don't appear quite as strong as the teams that won in 2004 and 2007, especially with J.D. Drew likely out for the season and Mike Lowell hurting too.

The loss of players like Lowell, Drew and Ramirez and the general ineffectiveness and inconsistency of guys like Tim Wakefield, Manny Delcarmen and Jacoby Ellsbury means Boston needs its stars more than ever come playoff time.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Drama Dwindling: With one week left in the season, the hope and heart-fluttering of the September pennant races has largely been replaced by crushing reality. Three teams are already in the October tournament. With a win or a Yankees loss any time in the next week, the Red Sox will join the party too.

Miniscule, seemingly insignificant leads in August become enormous with less than 10 games to play. The Dodgers (up 2 1/2 games) and the Phillies (up a de facto three games) are virtual locks to qualify for the postseason as well.

The reality is this: only two races that really matter remain. The three-way wild-card race in the AL never materialized. Neither did the down-to-the-wire NL West race. The AL East is tight, but not consequential in a knockout fashion.

The Mets and Brewers are left to fight over one playoff spot in the NL. The race between those two is seemingly fueled by angst and little else. Both teams appear fragile; both team's fanbases most certainly are. When one of them sneaks into the playoffs, it will be greeted with relief more than any other emotion.

That leaves us with the White Sox and Twins. Neither club has played well down the stretch, though neither has seemed quite as shaky as New York and Milwaukee, but they will at least meet this week at the Metrodome with a playoff spot on the line. Unlike last season, when we were treated to Colorado's unlikely run and the historic collapse of the Mets, the final week of 2008 figures to be fairly tame.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- No Time for Panic: The Brewers finally stopped the bleeding Wednesday night, beating the Cubs to end a five-game winning streak and keeping pace with the Mets, who were also victorious, in the wild-card race. But they might be worse off anyway. Ben Sheets left the game after two innings with stiffness in his forearm. After the game, Sheets revealed he has been battling elbow soreness since late August -- describing it as a "cutting" sensation.

Yikes. Considering this is a team that just couldn't go on with its manager with two weeks left in the season and the wild-card lead, it's hard to imagine that the possibility one of its best pitchers being out indefinitely will go over well. Milwaukee has already made its panic move by firing Ned Yost. Now they're really in trouble, right?

Yes and no. Sheets was slated to make two more starts this season. If he can't make either, you'd be hard-pressed to argue that the Brewers have a better chance at qualifying for the postseason than they did yesterday. That doesn't mean we should bury them entirely, though.

After all, it's only two starts. Sure, maybe they're two of the biggest starts in a quarter century for the franchise, but how many mediocre pitchers, even terrible pitchers, have strung together two good starts in a row in the major leagues. Heck, Carl Pavano even won two consecutive starts at the end of last month.

Stars are born this time of year, but so are unlikely heroes who rise to the occasion at the right moment then fade into baseball oblivion. (See: Spencer, Shane.) Carlos Villanueva or Seth McClung would be in line to start should Sheets be unable to go, and both are capable of turning in a good start or two.

There have been plenty of histrionics about the Mets and Brewers collapsing, but odds are one of those teams is going to the postseason anyway. With or without Sheets, there's no reason it can't be Milwaukee.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Chaos Reigns in NL: The Brewers firing their manager with two weeks to go in the season and the wild-card lead says a lot about the state of their club. But it also says plenty about the wild and wacky National League. A dozen days remain in the regular season, and anyone who tells you they can sort the senior circuit out is plainly lying.

The Dodgers and Cubs are almost certainly bound for the playoffs. Three principle teams -- the Mets, Phillies and Brewers -- are battling for the two remaining spots, but the Astros are within striking distance, and the Marlins, who still have Houston, Philadelphia and New York left on the schedule, even have a sliver of a hope

For now, the Phillies appear to have the edge in the NL East after rallying past the Braves and into first place. For now, the Mets appear headed for another collapse, done in by a rickety bullpen and an offense that can't seem to scrape out a clutch hit. For now, the Brewers appeared destined to wilt, no matter who is managing them.

But the Phils still have a spotty back of the rotation, New York still has Johan Santana and David Wright and Carlos Delgado and Milwaukee still has CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder and it showed plenty of fight against the Cubs Tuesday night. If the Brewers and Mets win and Philadelphia loses Wednesday, we'll know even less than we do now.

None of these teams are great, but just based on the sheer unpredictability of the races, the NL is about as entertaining as it possibly could be.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Concern for Kazmir: At the worst possible moment, Scott Kazmir turned in his worst start of the season for the Rays, surrendering nine earned runs as the Red Sox pulled even with Tampa Bay in the AL East. Practically, though, the division doesn't really matter to either club because both are virtually certain to qualify for the postseason.

What is worrisome is Kazmir's outing. The Rays ace hadn't allowed more than five earned runs in a start this year, and had only allowed more than three earned runs twice before Monday night. But he crumpled dramatically in a big spot. He struggled with his control, throwing only 39 of 72 pitches for strikes and opening the game with nine straight balls. And he allowed a player (David Ortiz) and a team (the Red Sox) that he traditionally dominates to victimize him.

There are three possible explanations for Kazmir's struggles: He simply had a bad start, he choked on the big stage or, worst of all, he's hurt. Painting Kazmir as a choker seems unfair, especially considering how well he pitched last week with just as much on the line at hostile Fenway Park. I'm most inclined to believe he simply had a bad start -- after all it's too easy to make a mountain out of a single-game mole hill this time of year.

On the other hand, you can't help but wonder if he could be hurt. Kazmir spent the first month of 2008 on the disabled list and he's had a myriad of minor injury problems over the course of his career. Watching him battle just to throw strikes set off alarm bells. I'll be watching just as closely Saturday against the Twins to see how Kazmir bounces back.