FanHouse Matt Schaub

The grueling grind of the season is beginning to take its toll on a number of QBs, as several starters have suffered injuries and could potentially miss this week's game. I've tried to factor each injury into these rankings, but we'll likely need a few updates once we have a clearer picture on the health of Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner for Sunday's games, and Kyle Orton and Matthew Stafford for Thursday's games (though I'm almost certain Stafford won't play).

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB at DET
2. Brett Favre, MIN vs. CHI
3. Tom Brady, NE at NO
4. Kurt Warner, ARI at TEN
5. Matt Schaub, HOU vs. IND

---

---

About 20 years ago, an AP sports writer in Denver named John Mossman went through all of John Elway's games with the Broncos and wrote a story chronicling the number of times he had led fourth-quarter or overtime drives that either won or tied games.

It became an instant stat.

For the next decade, PR men extraordinaire Jim Saccomano in Denver and Harvey Greene in Miami battled annually with lists showing Elway ahead of Dan Marino, or vice versa. Joe Montana probably was ahead of both, but the 49ers PR department declined for a long time to play. But now it's standard -- teams keep lists like that on every quarterback right down to Matthew Stafford, who had his first game-winner on Sunday in the second win of his career.

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8): New Orleans was tested last week -- in fact, they've been tested in each of their last four games. Drew Brees has thrown seven interceptions and only six touchdown passes in those four games. You can expect the Saints to come out on Sunday and look to clean up their act a bit on offense as they play a divisional foe who doesn't have the arsenal to put up much of a fight.

Josh Freeman's play since taking over at quarterback is giving hope for the future in Tampa. He's thrown four touchdown passes and only two interceptions and seems to enjoy throwing to Kellen Winslow who has 11 receptions in his last two games. The Saints defense is a little beaten up, but should be able to hold off the Buccaneers on Sunday.

Pick: New Orleans

Your No. 1 QB overall isn't Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. It isn't Drew Brees or early-season hero Matt Schaub either. It's the one and only Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers presents the perfect example of why it's unnecessary to draft a QB in the first two rounds. He was a late-third or early-fourth round pick in most leagues and he's performing just as well as the big boys.

Sure, Brady and Manning offer you peace of mind, but with the RB and WR rankings constantly in flux, it's a much better idea to load up on talent at each of those positions, then snag a QB like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb or Tony Romo a bit later. You could probably win your league with one of these guys and a good group of RBs and WRs. Teams with Manning or Brady and a weaker group of RBs and WRs will likely have more trouble in the playoffs.

---

---

In this past week's fantasy football tailgate (every Sunday from 10:30 AM ET to kickoff, come check it out!), someone asked us what we thought the first round would be for next season's drafts. Since we never want to disappoint, let's check it out. Here is one man's opinion on how the first round will shake out next year in standard scoring formats. This is using what we've seen thus far in 2009, plus what I expect to see the rest of the way. The first pick isn't really a secret, if you've been reading me the past two weeks.

1. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans - As I said, I haven't been secretive about this. He's gonna end up with 2,500 yards from scrimmage and close to 20 touchdowns this year. And he's only getting better.

Maybe Texans coach Gary Kubiak was just doing the standard NFL coach non-answer thing. When asked yesterday about his team having interest in just-released Chiefs malcontent RB Larry Johnson, Kubiak hemmed and hawed, called Johnson "a good player" and said, "We'll take a look at him." And this might mean nothing, of course. Might mean Kubiak really can't say whether his team is interested, because maybe he doesn't want him but the owner does or vice-versa or something like that. If they do end up pursuing the guy, it won't help negotiations much if the coach is out front saying, "Yeah, we really want him." So Kubiak said basically what he's supposed to say, and reading too much into it is probably a mistake.

But regardless of what's really going on behind the scenes, and regardless of the muddle they have going on right now with Ryan Moats playing on running downs and Steve Slaton playing on passing downs or whatever they're trying to with their running backs, I think the Texans ought to take a pass on Larry Johnson. I think they have too much good stuff going on there right now to bring in his kinds of issues.

Here's how it works. We throw some intriguing matchups at the FanHouse staff and ask whether each player will be over or under a certain point total. The result? Fantasy Football Over/Under. Makes sense, right?

Let's review my picks from last week and see how awful I did ...

This weekend's AFC South showdown appeared, at the beginning of the week, to be one of those strength vs. strength matchups. The Colts have the NFL's seventh-ranked pass defense and they have only allowed three passing touchdowns all season (making them the stingiest in the NFL). The Houston Texans are the NFL's third-best passing team and have thrown 16 touchdown passes in eight games.

Things this week, have, uh, changed a bit.

It's been a tough stretch of games for owners of elite quarterbacks, starting with a Week 5 that saw Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler on the sideline and going through last week's off-week for Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. Rest easy, because the rigorous fantasy games featuring backup QBs are over.

This week, only Brett Favre gets a seat on the bench in terms of QBs you'd want to use in normal-sized leagues. Next week, you just have to make it without Matt Schaub. For owners of the seven QBs in the previous paragraph, it's smooth sailing unless an injury strikes.

---

---

Much has been made about the Indianapolis Colts and their 7-0 start. As I pointed out in the power rankings, they are actually 82-21 in the regular season since the beginning of 2003. They are an absolute juggernaut. Thus far this season, we've heard lots of talk about how Peyton Manning looks better than ever and the Colts are firing on all cylinders. This week, we're bound to hear a lot about how the Colts are the biggest test yet for a Houston Texans team looking to visit the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

The funny thing is, in a movement worthy of Bizarro-World status, the Texans are actually the first big test for the Colts.