FanHouse Nate Silver

The Chicago White Sox are exactly the kind of proactive team the AL Central needs. They aren't afraid to sign a guy with broken feet, or start calling their own players homophobic epithets in August when the news starts dying down, or blame all of their problems on a computer that predicted them to be worse than they'll probably be. They're fighting against technology! They're like Will Smith! And what better way to deal with the Central than with a well placed "aw hell naw?"

Tonight's Spring Training Dugout thinks deeply, after the jump.

The worst part of the Cubs crashing and burning in the postseason (thus far; plenty of time still left, yep!) is not really the visceral disappointment of the loss. Sure, that sucks -- getting up the next morning seems significantly more difficult -- but even worse is the media's constant perpetuation of silly cliched nonsense about curses, choking, and any combination thereof. It's so, so painful.

So a big 100+ cocktails goes to Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus for taking the opposite tact today and providing some shred of hope for dejected Wrigleyvillers:

The Cubs actually were a vanquisher at one point. They were the team that took advantage of Fred Merkle's blunder to steal the 1908 pennant from the New York Giants. Importantly, that was the last time they won the World Series. But they've since accumulated a significant karma surplus because of 2003 and 1969, not to mention 1984.

So really, all of this is going to plan. It's the Cubs' turn to pull off a spectacular comeback. In fact, you should be actively rooting for the Diamondbacks to build up a big lead in Game 3. 5-1 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth? 13-4? 30-3 and Geovany Soto is down to his last strike? All the better from a karma perspective.

Nate is worried that he might have canceled the positive karma by bringing it up, but I prefer to embrace the realization. The Cubs deserve a comeback here, by God. I'd just like another week of Cubs baseball, even though it'll continue to be rhetorically painful. What say ye, non-existent baseball gods?

We all know that Alex Rodriguez is aiming his sights at $30 million next year. This is an indisputable fact and, to be totally honest, a reasonable thing for someone with Rodriguez's 2007 season numbers -- and a $27 million deal in hand -- to do.

Still, it's hard to see who besides the Yankees will pay that price, and whether the slugger is even worth that much to a ballclub in general is very much in question. Is it possible? Could Alex Rodriguez actually be worth that price? Dan Rosenheck, writing today in the New York Times, says no:

But is Rodriguez worth $30 million a year? Not close. [Baseball Prospectus' Nate] Silver wrote that teams on the playoff bubble - those expecting to win 83 to 94 games - collect an additional $2.6 million in revenue for every extra game they win, on average. If the industry continues to grow at a healthy rate, those figures should increase by 8 percent a year.

Thus, if he played for a team like the White Sox, Rodriguez could be expected to generate $25 million of revenue in 2008, $24 million in 2009, $17 million in 2010 and 2011, and $16 million in 2012, for a total of a little less than $100 million over five years. He is hoping to sign for about 50 percent more, and perhaps with another year or two tacked on once he is well into his twilight years.

One contention here is that if an extra $2.6 million per year is the average, then a team like the Yankees or Red Sox, or even the Cubs, might benefit from those extra eight or nine wins at a considerably higher rate of return -- say, $3.5 to $4 million. (This is a pure guess, and one that might no have foundation in reality.) If that is the case, A-Rod comes far closer to being worth $30 million or more to his employer, especially if he's playing in pinstripes.

(Thanks to PMK for the heads up.)