The Chiefs are a popular pick as the "upset special" of next week, based on Larry Johnson facing what is purported to be the Colts' run defense. As the popular saying goes, the best defense against quarterbacks like Peyton Manning is to keep him off the field, so the Chiefs' defense all of a sudden looks stellar solely because of Number 27.
But hold your horses. As I always like to respond to that cliche, the other team still gets the ball at some point. And when they do, Peyton Manning will be facing the 18th-ranked pass defense in the NFL. That doesn't sound too bad, except when you consider that the Chiefs averaged only two sacks per game. That is bad news when preparing to face Manning, who thrives on staying on the pocket and finding receivers nobody knew even existed.
The key matchup will be Marvin Harrison against Ty Law. In years past, this matchup would have been no contest... for the Chiefs. Law dominated these playoff matchups (some say unfairly), and with his favorite receiver as a complete non-factor, Manning got rattled. But Law has not been quite the same this year. Perhaps because his safeties are still a little unfamiliar with the Cover 2 defense, Law has not been able to take as many gambles this year and has played off the line of scrimmage more. Law has also typically thrived with good pass rushes, and the Chiefs' pass rush has been inconsistent. That does not figure to change against the Colts' stellar offensive line.
Law and Patrick Surtain are two high-priced free agents who have been vitally important, yet still quite disappointing, to the Chiefs. If the Chiefs are to pull off a big upset, they need not only for Larry Johnson to run wild, but also for Law and Surtain to play their best games of the season. If not, we may see another no-punt repeat of 2003.