Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
We all thought coming into the series that the only way the Phillies could win was on the strength of Cole Hamels' arm. Well, tonight he gets the chance to make good on his enormous promise -- talent being the promise, he didn't actually promise wins -- and clinch the championship at home. Scott Kazmir is his counterpart tonight. Do the numbers illustrate or conflict with our initial thought that the Phils should end things tonight?
Cole Hamels
Home Splits - Hamels was about equally effective at home this season as on the road. He sported a 2.99 ERA at home in the regular season with a 1.07 WHIP. His allowed OPS was .663, which is pretty solid considering the ballpark in which he pitches. For some reason, though, his record was only 7-7. I guess the guys didn't like swinging the bats for him this year at home.
In the postseason, Hamels has been on fire at home. He's 2-0 in two starts. In 15 innings, he's punched out 17 hitters, while walking only three. His ERA is 1.20 and the WHIP is sitting pretty at 0.65.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
Facing a 2-1 deficit and Cole Hamels waiting in the wings to pitch Game 5 on Monday, the Rays are facing a dicey situation tonight. Win this game, or their Cinderella run is going to be dangerously close to ending. The Phillies, meanwhile, have a chance to take a stranglehold on this series, and they're still playing to try and keep this World Series from returning to Tropicana Field.
The Phils are in this position because they managed to split the two games that the Rays had a decided pitching edge in. Tonight, with Joe Blanton and Andy Sonnanstine on the mound, things are more even. So who's got the edge coming in to Game 3?
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
Last night's game was a great pitching matchup with some early Chase Utley fireworks and a Brad Lidge save. So basically, it was exactly what we expected here at Tale O' Tape. Low-scoring, with the ace Hamels getting the job done for his team. From here I expect the Rays to take over, but let's see if the numbers bear it out for tonight.
James Shields
Home Splits - In almost 30 more innings of work, Shields was nails at home in the regular season. He went 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA. The 1.04 WHIP pales his 1.31 road WHIP by comparison. He struck out 91 of his 160 batters at home, and both his shutouts came in the Trop as well. Despite the aforementioned huge difference in innings, Shields still gave up six less home runs at home.
In the playoffs, though, he's gone 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 13/6 K/BB. Not exactly great, but he's kept his team in every game.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
We'll shorten the category list since neither team has faced each other much and just hit what means something for the World Series. Great matchup on tap tonight ... you'll see what I mean.
Scott Kazmir
Home Splits - Scott Kazmir went 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA at home this season. The downside is that he only averaged 5 2/3 innings per start at home, due to large pitch counts. The pitch counts resulted from 80 strikeouts and 45 walks in only 77 2/3 innings pitched. Considering he gives up many less hits, home runs, and total runs at home than on the road, it would behoove Kazmir to work efficient innings by letting his defense do the work.
Relevant Background - He faced the Phillies once in his career, but it wasn't this year ... so I don't think it matters much. I actually hate it when people give franchise stats -- "John Smith beat threw two shutouts against the Phillies back in 1996." So what? None of the same players are around. Speaking of the players ...
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
It's on. Finally, we get to see a decisive game in the postseason, meaning that there were no series in the first round that reached Game 5, nor did the NLCS reach Game 7. It seems like they rarely run all the way anymore, doesn't it? So we, as baseball fans, need to enjoy this one. We already covered this matchup between Jon Lester and Matt Garza before Game 2. What we'll look at here are any differences and what new information we've learned in that matchup and since.
Matt Garza
Personally - The kid was nails in the hostile environment that is Fenway Park last time out. He worked six strong innings, only yielding one earned run while striking out five. The one issue was that he piled up 116 pitches, and only 63 of them were for strikes. He needs to keep pressure off the bullpen and work more efficient innings tonight.
Home Splits - He's a much better pitcher at home, if the regular season splits are any indication. His home ERA was 2.89. He only allowed five home runs this season at the Trop, as opposed to 14 on the road in a very similar amount of innings.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
At this point, there are tons of factors outside the pitching matchup that could factor into the way Game 6 goes down Saturday night. The Red Sox have all the momentum, even though they only outplayed the Rays for three innings in Boston. Are the young Rays rattled? Are the champs going to be too locked in to lose again? There's more. Still, the starting pitching is an integral part of any baseball game, no matter the circumstances. The game of paramount importance to both teams -- you seriously think the Rays can chance going to Game 7? -- pits Josh Beckett against James Shields. Let's break it down.
Josh Beckett
Personally - We've examined Beckett before here. He's been an ace by any definition before in his career, just not this season. We were treated to another rendition of his not being ace-quality last time out, as the Rays torched him for eight earned runs in 4 1/3 innings.
Road Splits - Beckett was eons better on the road than at home this season, but his aforementioned awful previous start was on the road.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge. Thus far, we've accurately predicted six of the eight advantages in starting pitching based upon the stats.
Tonight, the Red Sox are in the same position as the Dodgers were last night ... facing a 3-1 deficit at home. In this installment, Scott Kazmir is staring down the home team, and Daisuke Matsuzaka looks to play savior on the hill.
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Personally - Dice is only below average when it comes to control and -- as a direct result -- piling up pitch counts which prevent him from working deep into games from time to time. His 2.90 regular season ERA, 18-3 record, and 8.27 K/9 are all quite solid. He also walked 94 batters in only 167 2/3 innings.
Home Splits - He's quite a bit worse at home, but he's not really bad anywhere. His home ERA is 3.34 (only 2.37 on the road), and his only three losses all came in Fenway. Of course, he won nine there. Opponents his .236 against Dice-K at home, but there is a problem ... and that problem is his control problems caused him to allow a .344 OBP at home. That's a lot of baserunners for a guy that needs to win the game.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge. Thus far, we've accurately predicted six of the eight advantages in starting pitching based upon the stats.
Well, we are here ... the Dodgers' proverbial backs are against the wall, and the pitching matchup doesn't appear to bode well for them. Chad Billingsley is pitted against the Phils' ace, Cole Hamels. Let's see if the numbers bear out that knee-jerk reaction.
Chad Billingsley
Personally - We've covered his personal success from this past season already, and he provided us with a bad outing against the Phillies in his last time out. He didn't last through the third inning, giving up eight hits, seven earned runs, and walking three. He did strike out five batters, but he obviously wasn't fooling the majority of the Philadelphia batting order.
Home Splits - He's a better pitcher at home. Not as much better as the record shows (10-4 at home and 6-6 on the road), because the ERA difference isn't huge. He sported a 2.95 ERA at home this year, as opposed to 3.33 on the road. He does have much better control at home (112/35 K/BB as opposed to 89/45 on the road in nearly identical innings pitched), so we'll see if he can be effective within the strike zone tonight.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
I hate going nuts with using the term "must-win," because it's really important to win every postseason game. You don't enter some games thinking, "hmmmm, we probably don't need to win tonight." That being said, the Red Sox backs would be totally against the proverbial wall should they cough this one up. They did come back from a 3-1 deficit against the Indians last year, but you don't wanna get into a habit of having to do so.
Tim Wakefield squares off against a dude -- Andy Sonnanstine -- who was nine when Wake debuted in the majors. Let's size 'em up.
Tim Wakefield
Personally - The 41 year-old knuckleballer compiled a 4.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his 16th major league season. A usual good outing for Wake is seven innings and three earned runs, but sometimes he gets knocked around for six to eight runs. Either way, the Red Sox are going to need to score runs. His last outing was five scoreless innings against the Yankees on September 28th.
Home splits - This season he was drastically better at home. He was 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA at home, as opposed to 3-7 and 5.14 on the road. He allowed 20 less hits at home, despite only throwing one less inning.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
In what is sure to be a high-intensity game -- even higher than usual playoff games following the fracas from last night -- the Dodgers come in with the momentum and home-field advantage. Joe Blanton and Derek Lowe get the call, so let's size 'em up.
Derek Lowe
Personally - We already examined Lowe before Game 1 of this series, but tonight he comes off three days rest. The numbers don't look great. He only started once on short rest this season, and he was crushed in five innings. The final tally was seven earned runs on ten hits. Last time around Lowe didn't have a bad outing, but it wasn't great either. He dealt for five innings and then fell apart with two quick swings of the bat in the sixth.
Home Splits - Lowe is stellar at home. His ERA is more than two runs better within the confines of Dodger Stadium at 2.30 and the home WHIP is a minuscule 0.93.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. 
