FanHouse Nfl Prospects

Curtis Painter: coming to an incredibly disappointed NFL city near you.

College football fans outside of Boston were by in large puzzled by the NFL's lofty opinion of 61st-rated passer Matt Ryan, the third pick in the NFL draft. Why Ryan went so high will be a mystery until such time as he proves himself Not Rick Mirer or Not Joey Harrington, but at least Ryan's team played pretty well and, you know, beat some teams that weren't repugnant.

The same cannot be said for Mel Kiper's top-rated senior quarterback for the 2009 NFL draft, Missouri's Chase Dan-- wait... what? CURTIS PAINTER?

10. Curtis Painter, QB, Purdue (6-3½, 225)
He's an impressive pure thrower, but what I liked about Painter's junior season was his improved game management. In 2006, Painter threw 22 touchdowns, but he also had 19 interceptions. Last season, he threw 29 touchdowns but had only 11 picks.

Painter does have one thing in common with Ryan: an underwhelming passer efficiency rating (46th last year in Joe Tiller's QB-friendly system) against a wretched schedule. Outside of the Big Ten, Purdue went up against Notre Dame, Toledo, Eastern Illinois, and Central Michigan... twice.

And, like... last year Tiller completely changed his offense to this weird pistol-option thing that got Purdue's run percentage up 50% specifically because he was terrified of Painter. And he's not good. I know, I've watched him for like four hundred years.

I did this last year, so it seems only fitting that I would do it again.

And it wasn't even close. Louisville had five players drafted, while Pitt and West Virginia had three apiece. Rutgers, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Connecticut had two each. And for the first time since 1975, Syracuse did not have anyone selected.

That's 19 players drafted. And any way I slice it, that's just not all that good for a BCS conference. Looking at the distribution of what rounds the players were taken, it was pretty well spread out over the entire draft for the Big East. But that doesn't make it feel any better. It's especially bad if you look at a team like West Virginia that has had three 11 win seasons in a row along with three straight top ten finishes. They've had exactly four players drafted in the last three years. And Chris Henry and Pac Man Jones the year before that. So we won't even go there.

The ACC? Yeah, that conference we've been quietly laughing at after Miami, Va. Tech, and Boston College left. Yeah, they had 33 players drafted this past weekend. The coaching must really suck over there or something.

Pac 10? Oh, they had 37 players drafted. SEC? 35. Big 10? 28. Big 12? 27. Hell, C-USA had 11 players drafted! Patriot League? Never mind.

Even more upsetting for West Virginia fans, two players left early for the NFL and weren't drafted. Those two being Darius Reynaud and Johnny Dingle. Yeah, sorry folks. Those Dingle-Berry photo's won't be happening anymore. Those are definitely two players the Mountaineers could have used this year, though. I'm not saying that their stock would go up any with one more year of college. But it sure wouldn't go down.

Louisville will have the most holes to fill as well. You don't replace Brian Brohm, Harry Douglas, and Art Carmody. I know there are others, but those three were special at their positions. West Virginia won't be far behind with the loss of Slaton and most of the secondary and defensive line. Rutgers, well we don't know how bad it is because we haven't seen anyone but Ray Rice run the ball. The rest of the conference should be fine. And that's not a good thing if you think about it.

Whatever you say ... number two!

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING

Pro Football Weekly 2008 NFL Draft Guide

Thinly built and not built to withstand heavy contact or carry the workload. Lacks the strength to run between the tackles and likes to bounce everything outside. Would be most effective in a complementary role alongside a bruiser such as [Darren] McFadden, where Jones could use his speed and quickness to create in space.

PROBABLY GETTING DRAFTED ...

Second round, a slim possibility for the first round if someone really falls in love with him.

GUY WHO WATCHED HIM FOR THREE YEAS IS SAYING

Although Jones will likely end up a complementary runner, it's more than a little premature to write off his chances as a primary back. He played in a power running offense against SEC defenses that knew Jones was coming. Yet he was still productive, even as a true freshman.

Although he bounces outside a lot, he did run a good deal inside with success. He was also more consistently healthy than teammate McFadden.

Jones has a shot to be an everydown back. He's over 200 pounds and has shown some ability to play the inside game in the NFL. His speed will be an obvious asset and he is quite explosive if given a crease.

I hated this guy so much while he was at Louisville, I take great joy in knowing that I will never have to write about him again. And by hate, I mean respect if you look at what he did the last three years to West Virginia.

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING

Pro Football Weekly Ranking the Quarterbacks

Brohm – Pop gun arm incapable of drilling NFL throws into tight NFL windows – I can envision him now getting picked off left and right trying to hit the deep out on the next level. Cannot throw on the run. Marginal athleticism - struggles to evade the rush. Pushes the ball and accuracy consequently suffers.

PROBABLY GETTING DRAFTED..

Even after that assessment, will probably go in the late first early second round.

GUY WHO WATCHED HIM FOR THREE YEARS IS SAYING

If all you knew of Brian Brohm was his performance last year, then I would say most of the above is spot on. However, there is a reason he was considered a top five pick if he would have come out for the draft after his junior year. He really is that good. And Louisville really was that bad last year. Most everyone will point out to you that a large part of the problem last year was that the defense put the offense in bad positions by letting teams score at will on them. And that's certainly true. But he didn't get a lot of help from the offense either. The rushing game got scary bad to nonexistent through the meat of the schedule. Harry Douglas was hurt in the middle of the season, and Mario Urrutia wasn't Mario Urrutia. Despite that, he completed 65% of his passes for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Pop gun arm or not that's pretty good. Last year wasn't an easy year for Brohm, but he took it all in stride and did everything he could to help the team win.

His numbers and Louisville's record in 2006 and 2005 speak to what he is capable of when surrounded with adequate players. And while he might not have the OMG! skills that impress everyone leading up to the draft.

Opinions are like ... well, you know. Here's our smelly take.

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING

Pro Football Weekly's 2008 NFL Draft Guide

Is clearly well-coached, with very sound mechanics. A pure pocket passer with functional arm strength, Booty is a West Coast, rhythm passer who will need to play in an offense that features a lot of short crosses and slants to be effective. Could develop into a solid backup, but would handicap what an offense could do as a starter.

Bonus Moment of Contradiction

Keeps his poise under pressure and does not pull the ball down to run.

Two sentences later:

Shows little awareness for pressure and can be rattled.

PROBABLY GETTING DRAFTED ...

Second day, in the third, fourth or fifth round.

GUY WHO WATCHED HIM FOR FIVE YEARS IS SAYING

One of the draft's most vexing prospects, Booty did the near impossible in transforming himself from a marvelous high school gunslinger in a shotgun system to a pure pocket passer running an NFL offense. He's one of the rare quarterbacks to successfully transition out of a system that produced highly regarded future flame-outs Josh Booty, Brock Berlin and Brent Rawls.

Now with an even more outdated cultural reference in the title! Remember metrosexuals? Far out!

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING

NFL.com's Pat Kirwan:

Ryan is the premiere quarterback of the class of 2008. He is a first round prospect with all the intangibles and is described accurately as a "winner." When compared to other draft classes, Ryan doesn't have the status of a Peyton or Eli Manning, Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger to some clubs, but he is a guy you can build a club around. It will be hard for Atlanta, Kansas City and Baltimore to all pass him in the top 10 spots.

PROBABLY GETTING DRAFTED...

At the top of the first round.

GUY WHO WATCHED HIM FOR FOUR YEARS IS SAYING

Ah, Matt Ryan. White. Pretty tall. Strapping, even. Possessor of the most annoying nickname ("Matty Ice") this side of Chris Berman. Potential top pick in the draft according to people who must have never watched college football ever.

There's an uncanny consensus amongst college football fans on Ryan: Jesus, that kid is overrated. Rarely does an entire nation of college football fans agree on anything other than "Paul Maguire must be fired immediately," but ask any non-BC fan from sea to shining sea and you will get one response: don't draft that guy. Why after the jump.

From inside the pages of the venerable Pro Football Weekly 2008 Draft Guide:

49ers head coach Mike Nolan told PFW to watch out for this kid. We did. He stinks. Hall was virtually non-existent all week, hardly making a peep. He supposedly was nursing an injury, but it didn't stop him from playing in the [Senior Bowl].

Ouch.

Rarely do you see respected publications straight up say a player stinks. Bonus points for throwing a coach under the bus. Rough day at the office, perhaps?

Pro Football Weekly's 2008 NFL Draft Guide (found at most news stands) has assigned draft grades to 242 collegiate players. Among the conferences, the ACC is tops with a projected 43 drafted players.

ACC: 43
SEC: 38
Big 12: 34
Pac 10: 32
Big 10: 29
Big East: 21
All other conferences and divisions: 45

Keep in mind these are the grades of just one (well-respected) publication and the draft is still weeks away. That said, this is a good starter projection for how the draft will shake out as far as talent allocation among the conferences.

Last year, the SEC led all conferences with 42 players chosen in the NFL draft. The ACC and Big 10 tied for second place with 32 players each.

This is good news for the ACC, but reflects poorly on its coaches given the conference's rapid decline in national prestige.

While this may sound like a Sports Guy gambit, I assure you ... this award does in fact exist. Matt Leinart won it in 2004 by winning the Heisman and leading USC to its second straight championship. Vince Young won it in 2005 on the strength of possibly the most dominating single performance in college football history (the award takes bowls into account). Last year, JaMarcus Russell won it after leading LSU to a Sugar Bowl decimation of Notre Dame and eventually becoming the #1 pick in the draft. Matt Ryan, well- he won the Champs Sports Bowl. Scintillating!

Then again, considering that the Manning Award is meant to honor the accomplishments of all the Mannings, including Eli, maybe it's appropriate that the guy who ended the year a winner with lesser stats finished just ahead of the guy with the mindblowing stats and the crushing postseason loss. Ryan edged out Heisman winner Tim Tebow for the 4th iteration of the award, perhaps setting up the Manning as the new hotness in collegiate awards that discriminate against underclassmen. Quoth the elder,

"In an exceptional season for quarterbacks, Matt Ryan's performance rose above our most talented class of finalists ever to win this year's award," Archie Manning said. "His record-breaking season led Boston College to new heights and we are proud to announce him as this year's winner and look forward to honoring him in New Orleans later this year."

That's right, BC fans- you can win eleven games in a BCS conference and yet, a year in which you edge out the 8th-best team in the Big Ten a half-week before New Year's is still technically "record breaking." Ryan was later erroneously quoted as saying that he hopes to use the awards ceremony as a means of acquiring some sort of Big Easy voodoo charm that will allow him to endure his inevitable time with the Atlanta Falcons in a blissful, psychotropic haze.

You know, there have been plenty of questionable entries into the draft pool in the ACC, particularly amongst running backs. But out of them all, I would imagine that James Davis would be the least likely to hightail back to school. There's been his much-documented beef with splitting carries, and you can just imagine Tommy Bowden chomping at the bit to find out what C.J. Spiller can do as the lead back for the Tigers.

Nonetheless, perhaps realizing that the last thing the NFL Draft needs is a borderline first- day back, Davis will be back in Death Valley to do it all over again for the Tigers, who still appear as if they're the frontrunner not just for the ACC Atlantic Divison, but maybe for the conference as a whole. Clemson returns a whopping 9 out of 11 starters on offense, including QB Cullen Harper (who arguably outperformed Matt Ryan over the course of the season) and fellow draft dodger Aaron Kelly. Despite sharing time with Spiller, Davis has ran for over 1,000 yards the past two seasons and needs a very-doable 837 to pass Raymond Priester for Clemson's all-time rushing record ... ostensibly before Spiller goes ahead and tops it.